May 1, 2024
2024 Race for the White House
NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist National Poll
Biden and Trump Competitive in Two-Way and Multi-Candidate Fields
Two points separate President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump among registered voters nationally in the 2024 Presidential Election. Biden has a five-percentage point advantage among those who definitely plan to vote in November in this two-way contest. However, he and Trump tie among registered voters nationally in a multi-candidate field. Biden previously led Trump by five percentage points in a field which includes Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein. Biden edges Trump by three percentage points among definite voters in this multi-candidate field.
Biden (50%) and Trump (48%) remain competitive among registered voters nationally, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. This is little changed from the three percentage points which separated Biden (51%) and Trump (48%) in a Marist poll released last week.
Biden (52%) is plus five percentage points against Trump (47%) among those who say they definitely plan to vote in November. This is comparable to Biden’s previous 6-point advantage among this group.
Voters with an unfavorable opinion of Biden (45%) and Trump (46%) divide. Biden’s support among these voters has dipped from 50%. Trump previously received 48% among these “double haters.” Trump (51%) has regained traction against Biden (44%) among independents who previously divided (49% for Trump to 49% for Biden).
57% of Biden’s supporters say they are voting for him because they are for him while 41% of Biden’s backers say their support is mainly because they oppose Trump. Among Trump’s supporters, 61% down from 67%, say they are voting in support of Trump and 37% plan to vote for Trump because they are against Biden.
In a multi-candidate field, Biden (42%) and Trump (42%) are tied among registered voters. 11% support Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Cornel West and Jill Stein each receive 2%. Last time, Biden (43%) had a five-percentage point advantage over Trump (38%) in this multi-candidate field.
"Voters are dissatisfied with the major party candidates for president," says Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "Although this could open the door for a third-party candidate, no one is filling the void."
Nearly Two in Three Voters Know for Whom They’re Voting
64% of registered voters, up from 60%, say they already know for whom they plan to vote and will not change their mind. An additional 26% report they have a good idea of the candidate they will support but could stray. 10% say they have not made up their minds. 67% of Biden’s supporters, compared with 63% of Trump’s backers, solidly support their choice of candidate.
Biden & Trump’s Favorable Ratings Upside Down… Neither Seen as Telling the Whole Truth
Biden and Trump’s favorable ratings are underwater. 40% of Americans have a favorable opinion of Biden, and 54% have an unfavorable one. Trump receives a favorable score of 39% to 56% unfavorable.
Biden’s job approval rating (41% approve to 54% disapprove) among Americans mirrors his favorability. Americans are more than twice as likely to strongly disapprove (42%) of the job Biden is doing than strongly approve (20%).
Americans are skeptical of the messages both candidates are communicating. 35% of Americans say the things Biden tells the American people are mostly true. However, 32% say they are mostly false. An additional 32% think Biden’s communications are a mix of both honesty and falsity.
Americans are slightly more distrustful of Trump’s communications. 30% report Trump mostly tells Americans things that are true while 39% say he mostly says things that are false. 30% think the information Trump provides is sometimes true and sometimes false.
Pluralities Say Second Terms for EITHER Biden or Trump Will Weaken Democracy
Americans are not overly optimistic about the fate of democracy with either Biden or Trump in the Oval Office. 46% of Americans think a second Biden term would weaken U.S. democracy. 30% believe it would strengthen it, and 23% think it would make no difference.
48% of residents nationally think a Trump return would weaken democracy in America. 37% say it would strengthen it, and 14% think it will not make a difference.
More Republicans Say Trump Has Engaged in Unethical Behavior
More Republicans are no longer willing to give Trump a free pass on his behavior as President of the United States. When thinking about the investigations into the former president, 46% of Republicans, up from 34% in February, say Trump has done something unethical but not illegal. While the proportion who say that Trump has done something illegal (8%) has not changed, fewer Republicans (45% from 55%) say Trump has done nothing wrong.
Among Americans overall, 47% believe Trump has engaged in illegal activity. 30% think he has done something unethical but not illegal, and 21% report he has done nothing wrong.
A majority of Americans (54%) think the investigations into Trump’s activities are fair and are intended to uncover any possible wrongdoing. 45%, though, think they are unfair and an attempt to impede his 2024 campaign. These proportions are identical to those reported in February.
However, 55% of Americans say they are not closely watching or not watching at all Trump’s so-called “hush money trial” in New York City. 45% are following the trial either closely or very closely.
Americans Most Concerned about the Rise of Fascism & Extremism in U.S.
31% of Americans say, when it comes to the nation’s future, they are most concerned with the rise of fascism and extremism. Nearly one in four (24%) are worried about a lack of values, and 21% are concerned about becoming a weak nation. More than one in ten (12%) express worry about people like them having less opportunity and wealth. Fewer are concerned about ignoring the country’s flaws and past mistakes (8%) and people like them losing power (2%).
Democrats (47%) are more than three times as likely than Republicans (15%) to be concerned about an increase in fascism and extremism in the nation. Republicans cite a lack of values (36%) and becoming a weak nation (30%) as their top concerns for the future. The top three issues among independents are the rise of fascism and extremism (32%), a lack of values (24%), and becoming a weak nation (23%).
More than One in Three Think “Golden Rule” is Most Important Value to Teach Children
36% of Americans think it is most important to teach children to treat others as they would like to be treated. 24% cite faith in God, and 18% think the most important value to teach America’s youth is that discipline and hard work pay off. One in ten (10%) say they should be taught that education is the key to success or that they should pursue happiness and follow their dreams. Fewer (3%) say the most important value to teach children is that money does not grow on trees.
There has been a shift in America’s values since 2010. At that time, 33% of Americans reported that teaching faith in God is the most important value for children. 27% thought teaching young people that treating others the same as they wanted to be treated was essential while 16% said instructing them that discipline and hard work pay off was critical.
Pluralities of Democrats (46%) and independents (40%) say the “Golden Rule” is the most important value children should learn. The top three values among Republicans are faith in God (34%), discipline and hard work pay off (27%), and treating others the same as they want to be treated (21%).