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NBC News/Marist Poll Results and Analysis of Arizona

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NBC News/Marist Poll Results and Analysis of Arizona

Democratic Enthusiasm for Mids Grows, But Advantage in Generic Ballot Question Fades… Sinema and McSally in Tight Contest for Senate… Ducey Leads Gubernatorial Contest

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Enthusiasm for this year’s midterm elections has grown among Arizona voters, especially Democrats. And while a majority of registered voters statewide still say their vote this November will send a message that more Democrats are needed to be a check on the power of President Donald Trump, the Republicans have erased a seven-point Democratic advantage on the generic congressional ballot question.

75% of Arizona registered voters, up from 68% in June, say this November’s midterm elections are very important. Among Democrats, there has been a double-digit increase, 84% up from 74%, among those who place weight on this year’s midterm elections. More independents, 68% an increase from 60%, also have this view. 77% of Republicans edging up from 74% previously, think this November’s midterm elections are very important.

A majority of registered voters (52%) report their vote will send a message that more Democrats are needed to be a check and balance on President Trump’s power. 36% say their ballot will convey more Republicans are needed to help pass Trump’s agenda. These proportions are unchanged from June.

Voters under 45 years of age (63%) especially those under 30 (70%), Latino voters (61%), and women (58%), especially white women with a college degree (67%) are more likely than their counterparts to want to send a message that the power of President Trump needs to be balanced.

“Both Democrats and Republicans can point to positive developments in Arizona since the previous poll in June,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “The enthusiasm factor favors the Democrats over the GOP and their advantage has widened. But, the earlier Democratic lead on the generic congressional ballot question has evaporated.”

On the question of congressional control, Democrats have a four-point advantage. 46% of voters in the state prefer a Congress controlled by Democrats. 42% favor Republican control. While there has been little change in these proportions from June, fewer voters (12% down from 18%) are unsure. Majorities under the age of 45 (55%), including 68% of those under 30, Latinos (57%), and women (52%), including 61% of white women with a college degree, prefer a Democratic Congress. Men (51%), voters 45 or older (50%), and white voters (48%) favor a Republican Congress.

The Arizona electorate divides on the generic congressional ballot question. 46% of registered voters say they are more likely to support the Republican in their district while 45% report they are more likely to back the Democrat. Seven percent are undecided. The Republicans have closed the gap. When this question was last reported in June, the Democrats had a +7 point advantage over the Republicans.

The change is due, in part, to increases in the proportions of Republicans (95% up from 86%), men (52% up from 44%), and white voters with a college degree (43% up from 36%) who support the Republican candidate in their district.

In the contest for U.S. Senate in Arizona, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema (45%) and Republican Martha McSally (43%) are closely matched among likely voters in Arizona including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Six percent favor Green Party candidate Angela Green. 16% of likely voters in this contest remain persuadable, that is, they are either undecided or indicate they may vote differently in November. Among registered voters statewide, three points separate Sinema (44%) and McSally (41%). Green receives 6%.

Among likely voters with a candidate preference for U.S. Senate, 59% strongly support their choice. 62% of Sinema’s supporters and the same proportion of McSally’s backers (62%) report a firm commitment to their candidate.

In a two-way contest, Sinema receives 48% to 45% for McSally among likely voters in Arizona. Among registered voters, Sinema has 47% to 44% for McSally. When this question was last reported before the primary elections in Arizona, Sinema (49%) had an 11-point lead over McSally (38%).

“With the controversial GOP primary over, Republican voters have now solidified their support behind their nominee McSally,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Now as November approaches, not only are the candidates’ overall standings almost identical, so is the intensity of support among their backers.”

A plurality of likely voters in Arizona (46%) have a favorable view of Sinema. 33% have an unfavorable one, and 21% have either never heard of Sinema or are unsure how to rate her. McSally’s favorable rating among likely voters is 40%, but 42% have an unfavorable impression of her. 18% have either never heard of McSally or are unsure how to rate her.

The economy and jobs, health care, and immigration each with 22% top the list of issues voters in Arizona consider important in determining their vote for Congress this November. Among Democrats, health care (39%) is the leading issue. Immigration (34%) tops the list for Republicans. Independents closely reflect registered voters overall.

In the gubernatorial contest in Arizona, Republican incumbent Doug Ducey (49%) leads Democrat David Garcia (39%) by 10 points among likely voters in Arizona including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Green party candidate Angel Torres garners 6%. 16 percent of likely voters in this contest are persuadable. Among registered voters, Ducey has 48% to 37% for Garcia and 7% for Torres.

59% of likely voters with a candidate preference for governor strongly support their choice. 65% of Garcia’s supporters and 62% of Ducey’s backers are firmly committed to their candidate.

In a head to head matchup between Ducey and Garcia, Ducey (51%) has an eight-point advantage against Garcia (43%) among Arizona likely voters.

The majority of likely voters in Arizona (51%) have a favorable impression of Ducey. 39% have an unfavorable one, and 11% have either never heard of Ducey or are unsure how to rate him. Garcia is less well known. 42% of likely voters think well of him, 35% have a negative opinion of him, and 24% have either never heard of Garcia or are unsure how to rate him.

President Trump’s job approval rating among Arizona adults is 39%, identical to his approval rating in the state in June. 50%, up slightly from 47%, disapprove. 10% are unsure. The proportion of residents who strongly approve of the president’s job performance is 24%, down from 28% previously. The proportion of those who strongly disapprove is 41%, up from 35% in June.

Complete September 26, 2018 NBC News/Marist Poll Release of Arizona

Complete September 26, 2018 NBC News/Marist Poll of Arizona (Likely Voters)

Complete September 26, 2018 NBC News/Marist Poll of Arizona (Tables of Adults and Registered Voters)

 Marist Poll Methodology

 Nature of the Sample

 

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