9/27: Obama with 7 Percentage Point Lead in New Hampshire

September 27, 2012 by  
Filed under Election 2012, Featured, NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll

In the presidential contest in New Hampshire, President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden have the support of a majority — 51% — of likely voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  This compares with 44% who favor Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan.  One percent is behind another candidate, and 4% are undecided.

“There’s been a reversal on the economy,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “In June, more voters saw Romney as better for the economy but no longer.  Plus, the negative gap of 20 points on the direction of the country has narrowed to minus seven.”

Click Here for Complete September 27, 2012 New Hampshire NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Release

Click Here for Complete September 27, 2012 New Hampshire NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables

Key points:

  • Party ID.  Among Democrats who are likely to vote, most — 96% — support the president.  Among likely voters who are Republican, 92% back Romney.  Obama has the support of 53% of independent likely voters compared with 40% for Romney.
  • Enthusiasm.  Nearly six in ten likely voters in New Hampshire — 59% — are very enthusiastic about going to the polls in November.  An enthusiasm gap exists.  66% of Romney’s backers who are likely to vote express a high level of enthusiasm compared with 58% of Obama’s supporters.
  • Intensity of support.  86% of New Hampshire likely voters are strongly committed to their choice of candidate while 12% somewhat support their pick.  This compares with 2% who might vote differently.  One percent is unsure.  Looking at Obama’s supporters who are likely to vote, 86% are firmly in his camp.  This compares with a similar proportion of likely voters — 85% — who are behind Romney.
  • Gender.  Among women who are likely to vote in New Hampshire, Obama — 57% — has a 20 point advantage over Romney — 37%.  Romney — 50% — however, edges the president — 45% — among men who are likely to vote.
  • Age.  Younger voters support the president.  64% of likely voters under the age of 30 are for Obama while 33% back Romney.  Among those aged 30 to 44, Obama garners 51% of the likely vote to 44% for Romney.  A similar narrative exists among those 45 to 59.  51% support the president while 45% are behind Romney.  Looking at voters 60 and older, half — 50% — are for Obama compared with 45% for Romney.

Among registered voters in New Hampshire including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, 51% are for Obama compared with 43% for Romney.  One percent of registered voters say they will vote for someone else, and 4% are undecided.

When NBC News/Marist last reported this question in June, voters divided.  45% of registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate backed Obama while the same proportion — 45% — supported Romney.  Only 1% was for another candidate, and 8% were unsure.

Table: 2012 Presidential Tossup (NH Likely Voters with Leaners)

Table: Enthusiasm to Vote (NH Likely Voters)

Table: Intensity of Support (NH Likely Voters)

Table: 2012 Presidential Tossup (NH Registered Voters with Leaners)

Majority Perceives Obama Favorably, Views Romney Unfavorably

54% of likely voters in New Hampshire have a favorable view of the president.  However, 43% have a negative opinion of him.  Three percent are unsure.

Romney’s favorability rating is the opposite.  52% of likely voters have an unfavorable opinion of him while 43% think well of him.  Five percent are unsure.

Table: President Barack Obama Favorability (NH Likely Voters)

Table: Mitt Romney Favorability (NH Likely Voters)

The Great V.P. Divide?

How does Vice President Biden fare in the eyes of New Hampshire likely voters?  They divide.  48% have a favorable impression of him while 44% have an unfavorable one.  Eight percent are unsure.

Looking at Ryan’s favorability rating, 46% of likely voters have an unfavorable opinion of Ryan while 42% have a positive one.  13% are unsure.

Table: Vice President Joe Biden Favorability (NH Likely Voters)

Table: Paul Ryan Favorability (NH Likely Voters)

Reversal of Fortune on Economy…Obama Reigns Supreme on Foreign Policy

On the issue of the economy, 49% of registered voters in New Hampshire think the president will do a better job handling the nation’s financial matters while 45% believe Romney will.  Seven percent are unsure.  Likely voters agree.  49% report Obama is better prepared to take on the task of the economy while 46% say Romney is.  Six percent are unsure.

When NBC News/Marist last reported this question in June, 46% of registered voters thought Romney was the better candidate to deal with the economy while 42% said Obama was more capable.  13% were unsure.

Obama outshines Romney on foreign policy.  54% of registered voters say the president is the candidate for the job compared with 39% who think Romney is.  Seven percent are unsure.  Among likely voters in New Hampshire, 54% believe Obama is better suited to take on the issue of foreign policy compared with 41% who say Romney is the stronger candidate.  Five percent are unsure.

In June, Obama — 49% — also had the advantage among registered voters over Romney — 39% — on foreign policy.  13%, at the time, were unsure.

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling the Economy (NH Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling the Economy (NH Likely Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling Foreign Policy (NH Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling Foreign Policy (NH Likely Voters)

Obama Approval Rating at 50% in New Hampshire

Looking at President Obama’s job performance, 50% of registered voters in New Hampshire approve while 45% disapprove.  Five percent are unsure.

When NBC News/Marist last reported this question in June, New Hampshire voters divided.  47% applauded the president’s job performance while 45% thought it was subpar.  Eight percent, at the time, were unsure.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating in New Hampshire (NH Registered Voters)

Fewer Perceive Nation Moving Along Wrong Track

51% of registered voters statewide believe the country is off track.  44%, however, disagree.  Six percent are unsure.

While a slim majority thinks the nation needs a new trajectory, fewer voters do.  In NBC News/Marist’s June survey, 57% reported the nation was moving in the wrong direction while 37% said it was traveling in the right direction.  Six percent, at that time, were unsure.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (NH Registered Voters)

Lamontagne and Hassan in Tight Contest in NH Governor’s Race

In the race for governor in New Hampshire, Democrat Maggie Hassan — 47% — and Republican Ovide Lamontagne — 45% — are neck and neck among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  One percent supports another candidate.  Seven percent are undecided.

Among registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, 47% support Hassan while 44% are for Lamontagne.  One percent supports another candidate, and 8% are undecided.

Table: 2012 New Hampshire Governor’s Race: Lamontagne/Hassan (NH Likely Voters with Leaners)

Table: 2012 New Hampshire Governor’s Race: Lamontagne/Hassan (NH Registered Voters with Leaners)

 How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

Comments

3 Responses to “9/27: Obama with 7 Percentage Point Lead in New Hampshire”

  1. kevin on September 27th, 2012 8:02 pm

    What was the sample skew? Seems sample skew is this year’s lag tingle.

  2. Maggie Hassan, Democratic Candidate For New Hampshire Governor, Leads By 7: Poll « Go to News! on September 28th, 2012 4:35 pm

    [...] this week that shows a lead for Hassan. The Democratic pollster Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and an NBC News/WSJ/Marist poll both found the Democrat with a narrower 2-point [...]

  3. Maggie Hassan, Democratic Candidate For New Hampshire Governor, Leads By 7: Poll | Test on September 28th, 2012 4:48 pm

    [...] this week that shows a lead for Hassan. The Democratic pollster Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and an NBC News/WSJ/Marist poll both found the Democrat with a narrower 2-point [...]

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