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9/13: Obama with Advantage Over Romney in Florida

Election 2012

9/13: Obama with Advantage Over Romney in Florida

In the battle for Florida’s 29 electoral votes, President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden receive the support of 49% of likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate while Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan have the support of 44%.  One percent backs another candidate, and 5% are undecided.

“With the biggest electoral vote prize of all the battleground states, the path to the White House may very well go through Florida,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

Click Here for Complete September 13, 2012 Florida NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Release

Click Here for Complete September 13, 2012 Florida NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables

Key points:

  • Party ID.  President Obama garners the backing of 91% of Democrats while Romney has the support of 89% of Republicans.  Among independents, Obama — 48% — leads Romney — 41%.  Nine percent of these voters are undecided.
  • Enthusiasm.  60% of likely voters say they are very enthusiastic about voting in November.  An enthusiasm gap exists.  68% of Romney’s supporters are very enthusiastic about going to the polls compared with 59% of President Obama’s backers who say the same.
  • Intensity of support.  More than eight in ten likely voters in Florida — 85% — are firmly behind their choice while 13% are somewhat behind their pick.  Only 2% say they might vote differently, and just 1% is unsure.  86% of President Obama’s backers report they are firmly in his camp while 83% of Romney’s supporters say the same.
  • Gender.  The president receives the support of 53% of women voters compared with 41% for Romney.  However, Romney receives 49% among men to 45% for Obama.
  • Age.  Younger voters favor the president.  61% of those under the age of 30 back Obama compared with 32% for Romney.  The president also receives majority support — 54% — among those 30 to 44.  Among this group, Romney garners 38%.  Among voters who are between 45 and 59, likely voters divide.  47% are for the president compared with 47% for Romney.  Romney — 50% — has the advantage over Obama — 45% — among voters who are 60 and older.

How does the contest shape up among registered voters?  Half of registered voters — 50% — including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate support Obama while 42% back Romney.  Just 1% is for someone else, and 7% are undecided.  When NBC News/Marist last reported this question in May, the margin between the candidates was four points.  Obama received the backing of 48% of these voters, at that time, compared with 44% who were behind Romney.  One percent supported another candidate, and 7% were undecided.

Table: 2012 Presidential Tossup (FL Likely Voters with Leaners)

Table: Enthusiasm to Vote (FL Likely Voters)

Table: Intensity of Support (FL Likely Voters)

Table: 2012 Presidential Tossup (FL Registered Voters with Leaners)

Slim Majority Perceives Obama Favorably…Voters Divide about Romney

A slim majority of likely voters in Florida — 51% — perceives President Obama favorably.  46%, however, have an unfavorable impression of the president, and 3% are unsure.

When it comes to Mitt Romney, likely voters in the state divide.  47% have a favorable impression of him compared with 45% who perceive him less favorably.  Eight percent are unsure.

Table: President Barack Obama Favorability (FL Likely Voters)

Table: Mitt Romney Favorability (FL Likely Voters)

Split Decision about Biden and Ryan…16% Need to Know More about Ryan

Florida voters have mixed feelings about Vice President Joe Biden.  46% of likely voters have a favorable impression of him while 45% have an unfavorable one.  Nine percent are unsure.

When it comes to his Republican counterpart, 43% of likely voters have a positive opinion of Paul Ryan compared with 41% who have an unfavorable view of him.  A notable 16% are either unsure or have never heard of Ryan.

Table: Vice President Joe Biden Favorability (FL Likely Voters)

Table: Paul Ryan Favorability (FL Likely Voters)

Candidates Battle It Out on Economy…Obama Trumps Romney on Foreign Policy

Which candidate will do a better job handling the economy?  Registered voters in Florida divide.  47% of registered voters report Obama is the candidate who can better deal with the country’s economic future compared with 44% who say Romney is the candidate that is better prepared.  Nine percent are unsure.  Likely voters also divide.  47% of likely voters believe Romney will better handle the country’s economic woes while 46% think Obama is more capable.  Seven percent are unsure.

In NBC News/Marist’s May survey, registered voters divided.  46% of Florida registered voters thought the president would better tackle the issue of the economy while 44% believed Romney would.  Nine percent, at that time, were unsure.

Looking at foreign policy, 53% of registered voters believe Obama will do a better job handling this issue while 38% say Romney will.  Nine percent are unsure.  Among likely voters, 51% have more confidence in Obama’s ability to handle these issues while 41% think Romney is better suited.  Eight percent are unsure.

In May, nearly half of registered voters — 49% — thought the president was the better candidate to take on the country’s foreign policy concerns compared with 40% for Romney.  11%, at that time, were unsure.

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling the Economy (FL Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling the Economy (FL Likely Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling Foreign Policy (FL Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling Foreign Policy (FL Likely Voters)

Half of Florida Voters Approve of Obama’s Job Performance

50% of registered voters in the state think well of the job the president is doing in office.  44%, however, disapprove, and 7% are unsure.

In an NBC News/Marist Poll conducted four months ago, 48% of voters approved of the president’s job performance while 45% disapproved.  Six percent, at that time, were unsure.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating in Florida (FL Registered Voters)

U.S. Needs a New Compass, Says Majority

52% of registered voters think the nation is moving along the wrong course.  42% disagree and report it is on track.  Six percent are unsure.

In NBC News/Marist’s May survey, there was an eighteen point margin between registered voters who thought a course correction was needed — 57% — and those who believed the nation was on the proper trajectory — 39%.  Four percent were unsure.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (FL Registered Voters)

Nelson with 14 Point Lead Over Mack in U.S. Senate Race in Florida

Democrat Bill Nelson leads his Republican opponent, Connie Mack, 51% to 37%, among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate in the U.S. Senate race in Florida.  12% are undecided.

Among registered voters, Nelson leads Mack by 16 percentage points, 51% to 35%.  14% are undecided.  In May, Democrat Bill Nelson edged Republican Connie Mack, 46% to 42%, among registered voters.  12% were undecided.

Table: 2012 U.S. Senate Tossup in Florida: Nelson/Mack (FL Likely Voters with Leaners)

Table: 2012 U.S. Senate Tossup in Florida: Nelson/Mack (FL Registered Voters with Leaners)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

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