Connect with us

8/29: Getting a Bounce?

Election 2012

8/29: Getting a Bounce?

The GOP convention is (finally) off and running followed next week by the Democratic gathering.  With Obama and Romney closely matched at the start of these two quadrennial events, as they have been since Romney emerged as the presumptive GOP nominee, what should we expect poll number-wise once the final gavel goes down in Charlotte?

caricature of Lee MiringoffPost-convention bounces are often dissected for any hint that the character of the contest has changed.  Yet, typically 5% has been about all a candidate can count on, and that advantage often quickly dissipates.

Don’t be surprised this go-around if the Romney and Obama bounces are even smaller.  Simply put, there’s far fewer persuadable voters to reach.  The “undecided” and “”those who might vote differently” groups now are about half the size of recent election cycles.

Part of the explanation has to do with the relative lateness of these conventions.  The summer is practically over.  Part of the explanation resides in the polarization that divides the electorate.  Most voters have already picked sides.  Part of the explanation is the result of limited network coverage for these increasingly staged events.

Nonetheless, the two conventions are important for Romney and Obama.  Romney has to solve his likeability problem.  Obama has to address why any shortcomings of his first term are likely to vanish if he is re-elected.  And, both camps are keen on rallying their respective bases.  Enthusiasm doesn’t show up in tossup numbers or poll bounces, but it is likely to determine who takes the oath of office in January.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Lee M. Miringoff is the director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. Follow Lee on Twitter at @LeeMiringoff.



  1. Linda S Treadway

    October 26, 2012 at 9:37 AM

    America, Speaking to the people of America. IT IS TIME TO kick Romney and
    Ryan off the cliff. We do not want to fall with them. Be aware of the fraud that the Republicans will have under their Magic Underware. We do not have to be down and out, without a job, living under a bridge to be considered one of the 47% that Romney has portrayed us as.They have gone so far as to use their money to buy voting machines.What person with a brain will buy voting machines? How do we know if this man has not bought into the red button that could end the world or a red phone that could start wwIII.These maybe part theory but with truth sprinkled into the theory. Ann Romney was terrified that Romney may loose and become psychotic. Paint My State Blue to keep some sanity in our world,

  2. Philip Herman

    October 15, 2012 at 9:43 AM

    I just saw Lee this morning on Fox News Channel. Lee and others from Marist should be on Fox more often. They have the best, most honest, and most incisive coverage. Lee looked and sounded great, and seemed fair and balanced.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

More in Election 2012

To Top