6/26: Weiner Surpasses Quinn among NYC Dems…Lhota Tops GOP Field in Quest for NYC Mayoralty

June 26, 2013 by  
Filed under Election 2013, Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

A month after former Congressman Anthony Weiner announced his candidacy for New York City Mayor, Weiner has moved ahead of his competitors.  He now edges New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn by five percentage points in the race for the Democratic nomination.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 25% Anthony Weiner
  • 20% Christine Quinn
  • 13% Bill Thompson
  • 10% Bill de Blasio
  •   8% John Liu
  •   2% Erick Salgado
  •   1% Sal Albanese
  •   1% Other
  • 18% Undecided

Click Here for Complete June 26, 2013 The Wall Street Journal/NBC New York/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED:  The Wall Street Journal/NBC New York/Marist Poll*

“The Weiner candidacy has scrambled the contest,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, nearly one in five Democrats are undecided, and almost two-thirds are not firmly committed to a candidate which makes for a lot of persuadable voters.”

The two frontrunners have traded places.  In May, shortly after Weiner announced his candidacy, 24% of Democrats in New York City supported Quinn while Weiner received the support of 19%.  Bill de Blasio garnered 12%, followed closely by Thompson with 11%.  Eight percent backed Liu while 1% supported Albanese.  Less than 1% backed Salgado while 1% was behind another candidate.  23% of New York City Democrats were undecided.

By borough:

  • In Queens and Staten Island, Weiner — 30% — leads Quinn — 20%.
  • In Brooklyn, Weiner — 23% — also has the advantage over Quinn — 16%.
  • In the Bronx, both Weiner and Quinn each receive the support of 21%.
  • In Manhattan, Quinn — 27% — edges Weiner — 23%.

By gender:

  • While Weiner — 29% — is ahead of Quinn — 19% — among men who are Democrats, Weiner — 22% — and Quinn — 21% — are in a close contest among women.

How strongly do New York City Democrats with a candidate preference support their choice?  36% are firmly committed to their pick.  38% are somewhat in their candidate’s camp while 23% might vote differently.  Three percent are unsure.  There has been little change on this question since last month when 39% expressed strong support for their candidate.  35%, at that time, were somewhat committed to their pick while 25% said they could change their minds.  Two percent were unsure.

When it comes to the intensity of support for the two frontrunners, Weiner still has the edge.  45% of Democrats who back the former Congressman say they are firmly committed to him while 34% of those who are for Quinn proffer the same level of support.  In Marist’s previous survey, 43% of candidate Weiner’s supporters and 30% of candidate Quinn’s backers vowed not to waver in their level of commitment.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, Weiner has the backing of 25%.  Quinn runs second with 21% while 14% are for Thompson.  13% supports de Blasio while Liu receives 8%.  Two percent are in Salgado’s camp while 1% supports Albanese.  One percent is behind another candidate, and 16% are undecided.

Looking at the Republican contest, Joe Lhota is ahead of his closest competitor, John Catsimatidis, by seven percentage points.  George McDonald is in third.  A notable 40% citywide have yet to select a candidate.  It’s important to keep in mind the small proportion of Republicans in this survey.

Among registered Republicans in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Republican primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 28% Joe Lhota
  • 21% John Catsimatidis
  • 10% George McDonald
  •   1% Other
  • 40% Undecided

When Marist last reported this question in February, Lhota — 20% — outpaced George McDonald, by 12 percentage points.  At that time, 8% of Republicans citywide supported McDonald.  Catsimatidis received the support of 5% of the vote while Tom Allon — 4% — Adolfo Carrion — 3% — and A.R. Bernard — 2% — rounded out the field.  Three percent, then, supported another candidate, and a majority — 55% — was undecided.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

Table: 2013 Republican Primary for Mayor (NYC Republicans with Leaners)

Quinn and Weiner in Tight Race in Runoff …Thompson Runs Competitively

If none of the Democratic candidates receives 40% of the vote, how would they fare in a runoff?  When Quinn — 44% — and Weiner — 42% — face off, they vie for the lead.  14% of New York City Democrats are undecided.

Weiner has gained support during the last month.  When Marist last reported this question in May, 48% of New York City Democrats backed Quinn while 33% supported Weiner.  Almost one in five — 18% — was undecided.

Among New York City Democrats:

  • Thompson has caught up to Quinn.  In a runoff scenario, Quinn — 42% — and Thompson — 40% — are now neck and neck.  18% are undecided.  In May, Quinn — 44% — led Thompson — 34% — by 10 percentage points.  22% were undecided.
  • Against de Blasio, Quinn has 47% compared with 33% for de Blasio.  More than one in five Democrats — 21% — is undecided.  There has been little change on this question.  In Marist’s previous survey, Quinn — 48% — outdistanced de Blasio — 30%.  22%, at that time, were undecided.
  • In a runoff against Liu, Quinn has the support of 49% while Liu garners 32%.  19% are undecided.  In May, a majority of Democrats — 53% — backed Quinn against Liu — 25%.  22%, at that time, were undecided.
  • Thompson — 42% — and Weiner — 41% — are competitive in this hypothetical runoff contest.  18% are undecided.
  • Weiner — 47% — leads Liu — 35% — among New York City Democrats.  19% are undecided.
  • In a runoff scenario against de Blasio, 44% are for Weiner while 39% are for de Blasio.  16% are undecided.

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. Weiner (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. Thompson (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. de Blasio (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. Liu (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Weiner vs. Thompson (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Weiner vs. Liu (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Weiner vs. de Blasio (NYC Democrats)

Sharpton Endorsement Would Do Little to Boost Electoral Chances

If Reverend Al Sharpton were to endorse one of the Democratic candidates for mayor, just 25% of Democrats citywide say they would be more likely to vote for that candidate.  However, a plurality — 45% — would be less likely to do so.  One in five — 20% — reports such an endorsement would make no difference to their vote.  One in ten — 10% — is unsure.

There are racial differences.  Almost four in ten African American Democrats — 39% — would be more likely to support a candidate with Reverend Sharpton’s endorsement.  27% would be less likely to vote for such a candidate, and 22% report it would make no difference to their vote.  Among white Democrats, a majority — 52% — would be less inclined to back a candidate with Mr. Sharpton’s backing.  17% would be more likely to do so, and 23% say it would not impact their vote.  Nearly half of Latino Democrats — 49% — would be less likely to support a candidate with Sharpton’s endorsement.  26% would be more likely to cast their ballot for that candidate, and 14% report it would make no difference to their vote.

Table: Impact of Sharpton Endorsement

Most Dems Still Viewed Positively, But…

Most of the candidates seeking the Democratic nomination are viewed favorably by those in their party.  While Christine Quinn’s favorability rating remains strong, it continues to decline.  Weiner and Thompson, in contrast, currently enjoy a boost in their favorability ratings.

  • Six in ten Democrats in New York City — 60% — have a good impression of Thompson while 16% do not.  25% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Thompson’s favorability rating is up from last month when 52% of Democrats thought well of him.  17% had an unfavorable impression of the candidate, and 31% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • When it comes to Quinn, 57% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of her while 29% have an unfavorable view of her.  14% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.  Quinn’s positive rating has dipped slightly while her negative rating has inched up.  In May, six in ten Democrats — 60% — had a favorable view of Quinn.  26% had an unfavorable impression of her, and 14% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.
  • A majority of Democrats — 52% — view Weiner well while 36% do not.  11% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Democrats divided in May when 44% had a favorable opinion of Weiner, 44% had an unfavorable impression of the candidate, and 12% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • A majority of New York City Democrats — 52% — have a favorable impression of Bill de Blasio.  19% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 29% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In Marist’s previous survey, half of Democrats in the city — 50% — had a positive view of de Blasio while 19% had a negative one.  30% had either never heard of de Blasio or were unsure how to rate him.
  • A plurality of Democrats — 47% — have a favorable opinion of Liu.  31% have a lesser view of the candidate, and more than one in five — 22% — has either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  These findings are similar to those reported in May when 45% of Democrats had a positive impression of the candidate, 31% had an unfavorable opinion of him, and 24% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • When it comes to Democrats’ impressions of Salgado, the candidate has much still to do to become known among the city’s Democrats.  Nearly six in ten Democrats — 58% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Just 21% have a positive opinion of him while the same proportion — 21% — has an unfavorable one.  Last month, a similar 60% could not offer an opinion of Salgado.  13% thought well of him while 27% had an unfavorable view of the candidate.
  • Albanese also needs to make himself better known to New York City Democrats.  54% have either never heard of Albanese or are unsure how to rate him.  21% have a positive impression of him while 25% have an unfavorable opinion of him.  This is little changed from Marist’s May survey when 55% had either never heard of Albanese or were unsure how to rate him.  18%, then, thought well of Albanese while 26% had an unfavorable view of him.

Table: Bill Thompson Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Christine Quinn Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: John Liu Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Erick Salgado Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Sal Albanese Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Getting to Know the GOP Hopefuls

On the GOP side, more Republicans in New York City have a positive opinion of Joe Lhota.  Catsimatidis has also experienced a bump in his favorability rating, but the candidate still needs to become better acquainted with his party’s faithful.  McDonald also needs to make inroads with his fellow Republicans.

  • A slim majority of Republicans — 51% — have a favorable impression of Lhota.  11% have an unfavorable one, and 38% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In Marist’s February survey, only 42% had a positive opinion of Lhota.  12% had a lesser view of him, and 46% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • 38% think well of Catsimatidis.  17% have an unfavorable impression of him, and 45% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Slightly more Republicans have a positive view of Catsimatidis than did earlier this year.  When Marist last reported this question in February, a majority — 56% — had yet to form an opinion of Catsimatidis.  Three in ten — 30% — gave him a favorable rating while 14% had an unfavorable impression of him.
  • McDonald needs to make his presence known to New York City Republicans.  Nearly seven in ten Republicans — 68% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  17% think well of McDonald while 15% do not.  In February, almost two-thirds — 65% — had either never heard of the candidate or were unsure how to rate him.  18% had a positive impression of the candidate while 17% had an unfavorable one.

Table: Joe Lhota Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: John Catsimatidis Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: George McDonald Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Democrats Outdistance Republicans by More than Two-to-One

Regardless of who the specific candidates will be in this fall’s general election, the Democrat outpaces the Republican.  If the Democratic candidate were pitted against Joe Lhota and the Independence candidate, Adolfo Carrion, here is how the contest would stand among registered voters in New York City:

  • 52% of registered voters support Quinn.  15% are for Lhota, and 10% are for Carrion.  22% are undecided.  When Marist last reported this question in February, nearly six in ten voters — 59% — backed Quinn against Lhota — 17% — and Carrion — 8%.  17% were undecided.
  • 52% support de Blasio while 15% are for Lhota.  Six percent back Carrion, and 28% are undecided.
  • Nearly half of voters — 49% — support Thompson.  14% back Lhota, and 9% are for Carrion.  Close to three in ten — 28% — are undecided.
  • 49% are for Liu while Lhota receives 16%, and Carrion garners 8%.  27% are undecided.
  • Weiner — 46% — outpaces Lhota — 17% — by 29 percentage points.  Here, Carrion receives the support of 10%.  27% are undecided.

 If the Democratic candidate were up against John Catsimatidis and the Independence candidate, Adolfo Carrion, here is how the contest would stand among registered voters in New York City:

  • Weiner — 51% — outpaces Catsimatidis — 14% — and Carrion — 10%.  One in four — 25% — is undecided.
  • Thompson — 49% — leads Catsimatidis — 15%.  Carrion receives the support of 8%, and 28% are undecided.
  • A plurality of registered voters — 47% — back Quinn when matched against Catsimatidis — 16%.  Nine percent support Carrion, and 27% are undecided.
  • De Blasio receives the backing of 44%.  Catsimatidis achieves 15%, and Carrion has the support of 10%.  31% are undecided.
  • Four in ten registered voters — 40% — back Liu when against Catsimatidis — 18% — and Carrion — 11%.  31% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Quinn/Lhota/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — de Blasio/Lhota/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Thompson/Lhota/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Liu/Lhota/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Weiner/Lhota/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Weiner/Catsimatidis/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Thompson/Catsimatidis/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Quinn/Catsimatidis/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – de Blasio/Catsimatidis/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Liu/Catsimatidis/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Nearly Half of Voters Would Consider Voting for Weiner

Despite the political scars Weiner suffered following the sexting scandal, 49% of registered voters in New York City now say they would consider voting for the embattled politician.  45% would not think about casting their ballot for him, and 6% are unsure.

There has been an increase in the proportion of voters who report they would consider voting for Weiner.  When NBC New York/Marist last reported this question in April, a majority of voters citywide — 52% — would not entertain the idea of supporting Weiner.  40% said they would consider it, and 8% were unsure.

Democrats and non-enrolled voters make the difference.  A majority of Democrats — 53% — say they would cast their ballot for Weiner.  This compares with 46% in April.  While non-enrolled voters divide, there has been a 16 percentage point increase in the proportion of these voters who say they might vote for Weiner.  47% now have this opinion compared with 31% two months ago.

Table: Consider Voting for Former Congressman Anthony Weiner? (NYC Registered Voters)

Should Bloomberg Keep Endorsement Under Wraps?

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has reported that he has decided who he wants to succeed him as mayor.  However, he has not announced his choice.  Should he?  New York City voters divide.  44% believe he should while 44% think he should not reveal who he supports.  11% are unsure.

By party:

  • A majority of Republican voters — 53% — say Bloomberg should share his decision.
  • Democrats and non-enrolled voters divide.  47% of Democrats say he should keep his choice to himself while 44% think he should announce his decision.
  • Among non-enrolled voters, 44% want to hear Bloomberg’s choice.  This compares with 42% who think he should keep it private.

Table: Should Bloomberg Reveal the Candidate He Wants to Succeed Him? (NYC Registered Voters)

Giuliani’s Backing of Lhota Helps for Primary, But …

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani still carries sway among the city’s Republicans.  68% of Republican voters say Giuliani’s support of Joe Lhota makes them more likely to vote for Lhota for mayor.  But, Giuliani’s support does little to bolster Lhota’s chances in a general election.  While 29% of registered voters say Giuliani’s backing will make them more likely to vote for Lhota, 46% report it will make them less likely to do so.  16% say it makes little difference to their vote, and 9% are unsure.

Table: Impact of Giuliani’s Endorsement of Lhota (NYC Registered Voters)

Lackluster Interest in Mayor’s Race

But, does it all matter?  Among registered voters in New York City, 39% say they are paying attention to the mayor’s race.  Included here are 7% who are following the contest very closely and 32% who are watching it closely.  A plurality — 44% — is not following it very closely while 16% are not tracking it at all.

Interest in the mayor’s race is not yet picking up.  When Marist last reported this question in May, 41% said they were following the contest.  This included 12% who were keeping very close tabs on the election and 29% who were following it closely.  43% said they weren’t watching it very closely, and 16% weren’t tracking the contest at all.

Table: How Closely Voters are Following Mayor’s Race (NYC Registered Voters)

A Look at the Race for Public Advocate

While Letitia James and Catherine Guerriero are neck in neck for the Democratic nomination for public advocate, a majority of Democrats have yet to choose a candidate.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary for public advocate were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 17% Letitia James
  • 16% Catherine Guerriero
  •   8% Daniel Squadron
  •   4% Reshma Saujani
  • <1% Other
  • 54% Undecided

The race for public advocate is very fluid.  Among Democrats with a candidate preference, just 34% strongly support their choice.  43% somewhat support their pick, and 20% might vote differently.  Two percent are unsure.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Public Advocate (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for Public Advocate Candidates (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

How the Survey Was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

 

 

Comments

7 Responses to “6/26: Weiner Surpasses Quinn among NYC Dems…Lhota Tops GOP Field in Quest for NYC Mayoralty”

  1. Stocking Blue - Dueling Polls Show Different Results on June 26th, 2013 7:44 pm

    [...] in second in latest Marist Poll.  Plus [...]

  2. Anthony Weiner is no slam dunk. The NYC mayor race is up for grabs | Harry J Enten on June 28th, 2013 9:04 am

    [...] week Marist and Quinnipiac released polls with slightly different, though, mostly consistent results. Marist [...]

  3. Anthony Weiner climbs as NYC mayor race heads for tightest finish since 1977 - The NYC Info News 24-hours in New York City, delivering breaking news and features about the five boroughs. - The Nyc Info on June 28th, 2013 3:59 pm

    [...] week Marist and Quinnipiac released polls with slightly different, though, mostly consistent results. Marist [...]

  4. A Look at the NYC Mayors race from the UK’s Guardian…6/28/13 | Politicaldog101.Com on June 28th, 2013 6:22 pm

    [...] week Marist and Quinnipiac released polls with slightly different, though, mostly consistent results. Marist [...]

  5. Anthony Weiner topping New York mayor polls | Politically Inclined on July 5th, 2013 11:20 am

    [...] results in a new Marist/NBC/Wall Street Journal poll show Weiner leading with 25 percent support from Democratic voters, followed by Quinn (20 percent) [...]

  6. Weiner and Spitzer: The Hilarity (And Potentially Disgrace) Of New York City Politics | Hear The Nation on July 8th, 2013 3:02 pm

    [...] wife, has entered the race to become New York City’s next Mayor.  Surprisingly, the most recent Marist Poll has him leading the field of Democratic [...]

  7. Campaign finance complaint filed against Christine Quinn – Washington Blade | Gay News Today on July 12th, 2013 7:20 am

    [...] The Wall Street Journal/NBC New York/Marist Poll released on June 26 shows Weiner leads Quinn among registered New York City Democrats by a 25-20 percent margin. A Quinnipiac University survey released on the same day found Quinn ahead of Weiner by a 19-17 percent margin. [...]

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