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5/12: NY May Bid Farewell to 36% of Young Residents

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5/12: NY May Bid Farewell to 36% of Young Residents

A sizeable proportion of New Yorkers, including more than one-third of those under age 30, may soon be sending out change of address notifications, but those new homes will not be in New York State.  According to this NY1/YNN-Marist Poll, 26% of adults in New York State plan to move someplace else in the next five years while 67% say they will stay.  Just 6% are unsure.  Similar proportions of registered voters statewide share this view.

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Click Here for Complete May 12, 2011 NYS NY1/YNN-Marist Poll Release and Tables

The picture is even bleaker when looking at the state’s youngest residents.  36% of New Yorkers under 30 years old report they will pack their bags and move to another state.  60%, however, say they will remain in the Empire State, and 3% are unsure.

“New Yorkers are feeling the financial squeeze on the home front.  Right now, many young people do not see their future in New York State,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Unchecked, this threatens to drain the state of the next generation.”

Older New Yorkers are less likely to move out of New York State in the next five years.  26% of those 30 to 44, 29% of residents 45 to 59, and 16% of those 60 and older think they will switch their state of residence.

Regionally, about one-third — 33% — of those in the suburbs of New York City, 26% of those upstate, and 24% of New York City residents report they will make their exit.

As to the reasons New Yorkers are planning their exit strategies:

  • Of residents who expect to leave New York, more than six in ten — 62% — cite economic reasons like jobs, the cost of living, or taxes.  38%, however, report non-economic reasons such as the proximity to family, overcrowding, quality of life, schools, or retirement as the catalyst.

Table: Plan to Move Out of New York State?

Table: Reason Behind Plans to Move Out of State

Cost of Living: Few View NYS as Affordable

More than three in four adults statewide — 77% — perceive New York to be an expensive place to live for the average family.  Included here are a majority — 55% — who say the overall cost of living is not very affordable and 22% who report it is not affordable at all.  However, 22% say it is affordable while only 1% thinks it is very affordable.  Similar proportions of registered voters in New York State share these views.

Adults in the suburbs of New York City — 87% — and in the city — 80% — are more likely to describe the cost of living in the state as not affordable compared with those upstate — 65%.

Other Key Findings Include:

  • Nearly seven in ten registered voters statewide — 69% — want property taxes to be capped so that they do not rise more than two percent annually.  26% do not, however, for fear that such a cap will cause cuts to local services or raise other taxes.  Five percent are unsure.  There has been relatively no change on this question since NY1/YNN-Marist last reported it in January.
  • More than three in four employed adults in New York State — 76% — say it would be either very difficult or difficult to find a similar job about the same distance from their home if they lost their current position.  Included here are 46% who report it would be very difficult and 30% who say it would be difficult.  19%, though, don’t think it would be very difficult while 5% believe it would not be difficult at all.
  • When it comes to their overall personal family finances, more New York State voters think they will see a change in their family’s financial picture in the upcoming year.  Currently, 47% believe their financial situation will stay about the same while a majority — 54% — thought that way in February.  More than three in ten — 31% — expect their money matters to get better while 22% think they will get worse.  In February, 27% believed an improvement was on the way while 19% expected their finances to diminish.

Table: Cost of Living in NYS

Table: Property Tax Cap

Table: Alternative Employment Near Home

Table: Family Finances in the Coming Year

Table: Family Finances in the Coming Year Over Time

Trend graph: Views of family finances in the coming year

Click on the graph to enlarge the image.

Slight Increase in Voters Who Think NYS Economy is Getting Worse

Although 47% of registered voters statewide believe New York’s economy is about the same as it has been, there has been a slight bump in the proportion who thinks the economy is declining.  37% of registered voters currently report the state’s economy is getting worse compared with 16% who say it is getting better.

When NY1/YNN-Marist last reported this question in early February, half of voters — 50% — said the economy was about the same as it had been previously, 31% thought it was getting worse, and 19% believed it was improving.

“As the state of the economy fails to recover, New Yorkers see this not as a sluggish rebound but as a sluggish economy,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

Although there has been little change among Republicans on this question, more non-enrolled voters and Democrats view the economy as deteriorating.  Nearly half of non-enrolled voters — 48% — believe this to currently be the case while about one-third — 33% — thought this way in February.  Among Democrats, 34% have this perception now compared with 26% who said the state’s economy was declining a few months ago.

Table: New York State Economy

Table: New York State Economy Over Time

 

Trend graph: Impression of New York State economy

 

 

Economic Glass Half Full or Half Empty: Majority Predict More Bad News

Pessimism about the future of the statewide economy has grown.  A majority of registered voters in New York — 53% — say, when thinking about the economy, the worst is yet to come.  44% are more upbeat and report the worst is behind us, and just 4% are unsure.

When NY1/YNN-Marist last reported this question in early February, voters divided.  At that time, nearly half — 49% — believed the worst was over while 47% thought the worst was ahead.  Four percent were unsure.

While there has been little change among Republicans, there has been a shift among non-enrolled and Democratic voters.  Currently, a majority of non-enrolled voters — 55% — say the worst is yet to come while 42% think the worst is over.  Opinions among non-enrolled voters have flipped since February when a majority — 52% — believed the worst was over while 45% thought the worst was yet to come.

Democrats now divide.  46% of these voters expect more economic challenges in the future while 48% say they are in the past.  A few months ago, 40% said more bad news was ahead while a majority — 56% — predicted the worst was over.  Among Republicans, 60% think the worst is yet to come compared with 37% who report the worst is over.  A few months ago, those proportions stood at 57% and 39%, respectively.

While there has been little change in the proportion of voters in New York City’s suburbs — 48% — who think the worst of the economy’s problems are ahead, more voters upstate — 57% — and those in New York City — 50% — have this view.  In early February, the proportions in each of these regions stood at 49%, 48%, and 45%, respectively.

Table: NYS Economy – Will it Get Worse?

 

NY1/YNN-Marist Poll Methodology

 

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