5/12: Arkansas: Pryor Leads for U.S. Senate; Hutchinson Ahead for Governor

May 12, 2014 by  
Filed under Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics

In the race for U.S. Senate in Arkansas, Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor is ahead of Republican Tom Cotton, 51% to 40%, among registered voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Two percent support another candidate, and 7% are undecided.

Click Here for Complete May 12, 2014 Arkansas NBC News/Marist Poll Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: NBC News/Marist Poll

“These results give us a sense of who is ahead among all potential voters,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “As we get closer to November, polling will be able to identify the character of the electorate for this election cycle.”

Key points:

  • Party ID.  A partisan divide exists.  Most Democrats — 89% — back Pryor while only 5% are for Cotton.  Among Republicans, most — 85% — support Cotton compared with 10% for Pryor.  Among independents, Pryor edges Cotton, 48% to 41%.
  • Gender.  There is a gender gap.  A majority of women voters — 55% — are for Pryor while 35% are behind Cotton.  Men divide.  46% of male voters support Pryor while the same proportion — 46% — backs Cotton.
  • Race.  While 85% of African American voters support Pryor, white voters divide.  46% of white voters support Pryor while the same proportion — 46% — are for Cotton.
  • White Evangelical Christians.  Cotton leads Pryor, 58% to 36%, among registered voters who are white and describe themselves as Evangelical Christians.  One percent supports another candidate, and 5% are undecided.
  • President Obama.  Pryor overwhelmingly carries voters who approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president, 86% to 9% for Cotton.  Among voters who disapprove of the president’s performance in office, Cotton leads 61% to 32% for Pryor.

“So far, Senator Pryor has staved off Cotton’s challenge,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Holding this seat is no easy task for a Democrat with President Obama’s approval rating at 33% in the state.”

Table: 2014 Senate Tossup (Arkansas Registered Voters Including Leaners)

Plurality with Favorable Impression of Pryor…Cotton with Mixed Reviews

46% of Arkansans have a favorable opinion of Pryor while 32% have an unfavorable view of him.  Nine percent have never heard of Pryor, and 14% are unsure how to rate him.  Among registered voters statewide, 50% think well of Pryor while 35% have a lesser view of him.  11% are unsure how to rate him.

47% of white Evangelical Christians like Pryor while 38% have a negative opinion of him.  Five percent have never heard of Pryor, and 10% are unsure how to rate him.

When it comes to Cotton, 37% of Arkansas residents have an unfavorableview of him, 34% have a positive opinion of him.  15% have never heard of Cotton, and 14% are unsure how to rate him.  Among registered voters, 39% have a negative view of Cotton.  38% like him, and 9% have never heard of him.  14% are unsure how to rate him.  Among white Evangelical Christians, 48% have a positive opinion of Cotton.  31% have a negative one, and 8% have never heard of Cotton.  13% are unsure how to rate him.

Table: Pryor Favorability (Arkansas Adults)

Table: Cotton Favorability (Arkansas Adults)

Hutchinson with Advantage in Governor’s Race

Looking at the gubernatorial contest in Arkansas, Republican Asa Hutchinson — 49% — leads Democrat Mike Ross — 42% — by 7 points among registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Two percent back another candidate, and 7% are undecided.

Key points:

  • Party ID.  89% of Republicans are for Hutchinson.  This compares with 78% of Democrats who are for Ross.  52% of independents support Hutchinson while 37% are for Ross.
  • Race.  71% of African American voters support Ross while 56% of white voters are for Hutchinson.
  • White Evangelical Christians.  By more than two-to-one, Hutchinson leads Ross among those who are white and describe themselves as Evangelical Christians.  69% support Hutchinson while 27% are for Ross.

Table: 2014 Gubernatorial Tossup (Arkansas Registered Voters Including Leaners)

Nearly Three in Four Approve of Beebe’s Job Performance

74% of adults approve of how Arkansas Governor Mike Beebe is doing in office.  13% disapprove, and 13% are unsure.  Among registered voters in the state, 79% applaud Beebe’s job performance.  13% think he has fallen short, and 9% are unsure.

And, what do Arkansas residents think of the state’s most famous governor?  Seven in ten — 70% — have a favorable impression of former President Bill Clinton while 26% have an unfavorable view of him.  Four percent are unsure how to rate Clinton.  Looking at registered voters, 68% like Clinton, 28% do not, and 3% are unsure how to rate him.

Table: Mike Beebe Approval Rating (Arkansas Adults)

Table: Bill Clinton Favorability (Arkansas Adults)

Majority in Arkansas Disapproves of Obama’s Job Performance

57% of residents statewide disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president.  33% approve, and 9% are unsure.  Among registered voters, 60% think Obama has missed the mark.  34% approve of the president’s job performance, and 6% are unsure.

Do adults in Arkansas approve of the president’s Affordable Care Act?  A majority — 54% — thinks the health care law is a bad idea.  This includes 47% who strongly hold this opinion and 7% who somewhat do.  30% believe the health care law is a good one.  Included here are 21% who strongly support the program and 9% who just think it’s a good idea.  14% of residents have no opinion either way, and 2% are unsure.

Table: Obama Approval Rating (Arkansas Adults)

Table: Is the New Health Care Law a Good or Bad Idea? (Arkansas Adults)

Nearly Seven in Ten Say Nation is Off Course

68% of Arkansans say the nation is moving in the wrong direction.  27% believe it is on track.  An additional 5% are unsure.  Similar proportions of registered voters have these opinions.  69% believe the nation is off track.  27% say it is on course.  Four percent are unsure.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (Arkansas Adults)

 How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

Comments

10 Responses to “5/12: Arkansas: Pryor Leads for U.S. Senate; Hutchinson Ahead for Governor”

  1. Senate polls: Pryor leads Cotton; McConnell and Grimes neck-and-neck on May 12th, 2014 9:03 am

    [...] new NBC News/Marist poll released Monday finds Pryor leading Cotton 51 percent to 40 percent among registered voters. In [...]

  2. Can Dems community organize to keep Senate? on May 12th, 2014 10:45 am

    [...] News/Marist Polls – Arkansas: Pryor (D) 51/Cotton (R) 40; Georgia: Purdue (R) 45/Nunn (D) 41; Kentucky: McConnell (R) 46/Grimes [...]

  3. Senate 2014 Marist Poll: Democrats doing well in 3 Battleground States… Daniel counter…. | Politicaldog101.Com on May 12th, 2014 11:07 am

    [...] More…. [...]

  4. Can Dems community organize to keep Senate? | International American Council on May 12th, 2014 11:16 am

    [...] News/Marist Polls – Arkansas: Pryor (D) 51/Cotton (R) 40; Georgia: Purdue (R) 45/Nunn (D) 41; Kentucky: McConnell (R) 46/Grimes [...]

  5. Skeptical on May 12th, 2014 12:24 pm

    Could Marist speak to the wisdom of using the youngest male in the household as the preferred adult? Your methodology seems to be a means to shift the voter breakdown of the poll from married voters to single voters.

  6. Senate polls: Pryor leads Cotton; McConnell and Grimes neck-and-neck : Polypartisan on May 12th, 2014 2:22 pm

    [...] new NBC News/Marist poll released Monday finds Pryor leading Cotton 51 percent to 40 percent among registered voters. In [...]

  7. Poll: Mark Pryor leads GOP challenger for Senate in Arkansas — by 11 points? « Hot Air on May 12th, 2014 7:21 pm

    [...] mark in the headline because … I can’t quite believe it. I can believe that a two-term Democratic incumbent, whose father served as governor and senator, [...]

  8. Mary Griffith on May 13th, 2014 4:30 pm

    @skeptical:

    Thank you for your inquiry.
    Household selection methods are used in scientifically designed surveys to pick one eligible person within the household to serve as a designated respondent. If this is NOT done, the survey sample will be made up of the person in the household who is most available or willing. Research has shown that the absence of household selection leads to samples that over-represent females, the elderly, those without full-time employment, and those most likely to cooperate with surveys. It under-represents the people who are hardest to reach (e.g., young adult males) and those least likely to cooperate with surveys. Using the “youngest adult male” selection method helps to adjust for this. It does not mean we are speaking to a disproportionate number of “young” males. In American households which include an adult male, the “youngest” adult male is, in fact, over 30 and living with another adult.

    In addition, a household selection method is used only for our landline sample. When contacting people on cell phones, we do not use a selection process. The individual who agrees to participate must be 18 years of age or older and be the owner of the cell phone.

    We appreciate your interest.
    The Marist Poll Team

  9. Is Mark Pryor the guy who will defy the trends against Democrats? on May 16th, 2014 9:00 am

    [...] An NBC News/Marist poll released Monday found 50 percent of Arkansas registered voters have favorable impressions of Pryor, compared with 35 percent unfavorable. The poll wasn't a fluke – Pryor boasted a positive 47 to 38 percent approval-disapproval margin for handling his job as senator in a New York Times/Kaiser Family Foundation poll. [...]

  10. publichealthwatch | Republicans’ Chance To Retake The Senate Isn’t Looking So Good Anymore on May 21st, 2014 8:51 pm

    [...] has turned out to be something of a dud candidate, failing to capitalize in a state where only 33 percent of voters approve of the president’s job performance. As Dana Milbank at The Washington Post argues, [...]

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