4/16: Weiner Candidacy for Mayor Could Scramble Democratic Primary Contest

April 16, 2013 by  
Filed under Election 2013, Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

Nearly two years after resigning his Congressional seat due to a sexting scandal, how do New York City voters react to Anthony Weiner’s potential run for mayor?  When he is included in the field of candidates for the Democratic nomination, Weiner receives the support of 15% of Democratic voters, placing him second after frontrunner Christine Quinn.

Anthony Weiner

Anthony Weiner

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand with Anthony Weiner in the race:

  • 26% Christine Quinn
  • 15% Anthony Weiner
  • 12% John Liu
  • 11% Bill de Blasio
  • 11% Bill Thompson
  •  2% Sal Albanese
  •  1% Other
  • 22% Undecided

Click Here for Complete April 16, 2013 NYC NBC New York/Marist Poll Release and Tables

“Right now, a Weiner candidacy attracts double-digit support in the Democratic primary,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “He makes it even more difficult for any of the Democratic contenders to reach the needed forty percent to avoid a run-off.”

When Democratic voters are asked to select their preference in the primary for New York City mayor without Anthony Weiner in the race, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn continues to outpoll her rivals.  However, her support has declined from a similar survey conducted in February.

Among registered Democrats in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand without Anthony Weiner in the race:

  • 30% Christine Quinn
  • 15% Bill de Blasio
  • 14% Bill Thompson
  • 11% John Liu
  •   2% Sal Albanese
  •   2% Other
  • 26% Undecided

When Marist last reported this question in February, 37% of Democratic voters including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate supported Quinn.  13% backed Thompson, and 12% were for de Blasio.  Nine percent supported Liu while only 2% backed Albanese.  One percent was for another candidate, and 26% were undecided.

To punctuate the fluidity of the Democratic primary contest, only 34% of Democrats who have a candidate preference are firmly committed to that candidate.  30% are somewhat behind their pick while 35% might vote differently.  Two percent are unsure.  In February’s survey, three in ten Democrats with a candidate preference — 30% — said they strongly supported their choice.  34% were somewhat in their candidate’s corner while 32% thought they might vote differently on primary day.  Three percent, at the time, were unsure.

When Weiner is not in the Democratic primary field, Quinn and de Blasio are each four percentage points higher, and Thompson has three percentage points more in support. Undecided is also four percentage points higher when Weiner is not listed as a candidate.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor with Anthony Weiner (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support (NYC Democrats)

A Redemption Story?  Democrats Not Keen on Weiner Run for Mayor, But…

As Weiner contemplates his return to elective politics, 40% of registered Democrats want Weiner to seek the mayoralty, while 46% do not want him to run.  14% are unsure.  Citywide, only 37% want him to run, while 47% do not want to see him become a candidate for mayor this year.  16% are undecided.

However, these numbers have improved for Weiner since a similar Marist Poll conducted last October.  At that time, only 28% of registered Democrats wanted Weiner to throw his hat into the ring.  57% did not, and 14% were unsure.  Among all registered voters, only one in four – 25% — wanted Weiner to enter the contest for mayor and 58% did not want him to run. 17% were unsure.  At the height of Weiner’s political difficulties in June 2011, 25% of voters wanted Weiner to run for mayor.  56% did not, and 19% were unsure.

Weiner’s favorability has also improved. He now has a net positive rating among registered Democrats.  45% of Democrats have a favorable view of Weiner while 41% have an unfavorable impression of him.  15% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Two months ago, his rating was upside down.  Only 34% of Democrats viewed Weiner favorably at that time, and 43% had an unfavorable impression of him.  23% were unsure how to rate him or had never heard of him.

Overall, 39% of registered voters have a favorable impression of Weiner, while 43% have an unfavorable impression of him.  19% are unsure or have never heard of him. This is also an improvement from two months ago when only 30% had a positive impression of Weiner, and 46% did not think well of him.  24% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him at that time.

Would New York City voters consider casting their ballot for the scandal-scarred former congressman?  Among Democrats, 46% are open-minded about a Weiner candidacy while 50% would not consider voting for him for mayor.  Five percent are unsure. Among all registered voters, 40% say that they would consider voting for him. But, 52% would not, and 8% are unsure.

Is it a question of character?  There’s little consensus.  37% of Democrats think Weiner has changed as a person in the past two years while 32% believe he has not reformed. 31% are unsure.  Citywide 33% of registered voters think he has changed during this time, 33% believe he has not, and 34% are unsure.

Table: Former Congressman Anthony Weiner 2013 Mayoralty?

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Consider Voting for Former Congressman Anthony Weiner?

Table: Has Former Congressman Anthony Weiner Changed as a Person?

All Democratic Hopefuls Viewed Less Favorably

 59% of New York City Democrats have a positive impression of Quinn while 23% have an unfavorable one.  18% have either never heard of her or are unsure.  Slightly fewer Democrats now think well of Christine Quinn.  Two months ago, nearly two-thirds of Democrats, 65%, had a favorable opinion of her.  17% had an unfavorable one, and 18% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.

What are Democrats’ views toward the other candidates in the field?

  • 43% have a favorable view of Bill Thompson.  21% have an unfavorable one, and 36% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In February, almost half of Democrats — 49% — had a positive opinion of Thompson.  One in five — 20% — had an unfavorable one, and 31% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • Looking at de Blasio’s image, 42% of Democrats think well of him while 23% do not.  35% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In Marist’s previous survey, 48% of Democrats had a favorable impression of de Blasio.  20% had an unfavorable view of him, and 32% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • 40% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of Liu while 32% do not.  28% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In February, 43% had a positive impression of Liu.  27% had an unfavorable one, and 30%, at the time, had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • Albanese has failed to make inroads with his party’s faithful. Just 18% of Democrats have a positive view of him.  27% have an unfavorable impression of Albanese, and a majority — 55% — has either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In February, 26% thought well of Albanese, 20% had an unfavorable view of him, and 54% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Christine Quinn Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill Thompson Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: John Liu Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Sal Albanese Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Quinn Outdistances Lhota…Weiner Also Has Advantage Over GOP Hopeful

 Looking ahead to the general election, Christine Quinn gets the nod from a majority of voters citywide against Republican Joe Lhota.  Quinn has the support of 59% compared with 19% for Lhota.  21% of registered voters are undecided.  In February, 64% of voters backed Quinn while 18% supported Lhota.  18% were also undecided.

How does Anthony Weiner fare against Lhota?  Weiner – 51% — leads Lhota – 28% — among registered voters in New York City.  21% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Quinn/Lhota

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Weiner/Lhota

Low Interest in Mayor’s Race

 Only 38% of registered voters are paying attention to the mayor’s race.  This includes 8% who are following the contest very closely and 30% who are watching it closely.  45% are not following it very closely, and 18% are not following it at all.

In February, 30% reported they were following the mayor’s race very closely or closely.  44% said they weren’t paying much attention to the contest, and 26% reported they weren’t watching it at all.

Table: How Closely Voters are Following Mayor’s Race

Bloomberg’s Approval Rating Shows Slight Decline

How do registered voters think Mayor Bloomberg is doing in office?  46% give the mayor high marks.  This includes 12% who think Bloomberg is doing an excellent job in office and 34% who believe he is doing a good one.  32% rate the mayor’s performance as fair while 21% give Bloomberg poor marks.  One percent is unsure.

In February’s survey, 50% approved of Bloomberg’s job performance.  32% thought he was doing a mediocre job while 16% said he fell short.  Two percent, then, were unsure.

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time

A City on Track, Says Majority

 55% of registered voters in New York City think the Big Apple is moving in the right direction.  38% believe it is traveling on the wrong road, and 7% are unsure.  In Marist’s February survey, 55% thought the city was on the right path.  36% reported it needed a course correction, and 8% were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction

Table: New York City Direction Over Time

 

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

Comments

19 Responses to “4/16: Weiner Candidacy for Mayor Could Scramble Democratic Primary Contest”

  1. First Thoughts: Background-check measure expected to fall short | LNW on April 17th, 2013 9:37 am

    [...] a second way to read it: Weiner, with nearly perfect name ID, is getting just 15%. More from Marist: “Among Democrats, 46% are open-minded about a Weiner candidacy while 50% would not consider [...]

  2. First Thoughts: Background-check measure expected to fall short | Headlines on April 17th, 2013 9:41 am

    [...] a second way to read it: Weiner, with nearly perfect name ID, is getting just 15%. More from Marist: “Among Democrats, 46% are open-minded about a Weiner candidacy while 50% would not consider [...]

  3. First Thoughts: Background-check measure expected to fall short | Report in for duty. on April 17th, 2013 10:12 am

    [...] a second way to read it: Weiner, with nearly perfect name ID, is getting just 15%. More from Marist: “Among Democrats, 46% are open-minded about a Weiner candidacy while 50% would not consider [...]

  4. Poll: Weiner Second In Democratic Field For NYC Mayor « CBS New York on April 17th, 2013 11:43 am

    [...] LINK: Complete Poll Results [...]

  5. Poll: Anthony Weiner in second place for NYC mayoral race | Death and Taxes on April 17th, 2013 12:04 pm

    [...] heavy-duty endorsement from back in December then goddammit, Weiner, bring it on, brah.MIPO’s survey, published April 16:Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided [...]

  6. Background check measure may fall short | Corningglassfest.com on April 17th, 2013 12:15 pm

    [...] a second way to read it: Weiner, with nearly perfect name ID, is getting just 15%. More from Marist: “Among Democrats, 46% are open-minded about a Weiner candidacy while 50% would not consider [...]

  7. Poll: Weiner Could Shake Up NY Mayor’s Race | BirchIndigo on April 17th, 2013 12:49 pm

    [...] to an NBC New York/Marist survey of 1,127 adults, 46 percent of registered Democrats oppose his mayoral candidacy compared to 40 [...]

  8. Poll: Weiner Could Shake Up NY Mayor’s Race | Irascible Musings on April 17th, 2013 3:01 pm

    [...] According to an NBC New York/Marist survey of 1,127 adults, 46 percent of registered Democrats oppose his mayoral candidacy compared to 40 [...]

  9. Why Weiner’s Mayoral Bid Is a Long Shot | The Presidency on April 17th, 2013 3:45 pm

    [...] Weiner’s Mayoral Bid Is a Long Shot A poll released on Tuesday by Marist College shows former Representative Anthony Weiner running in second place in the [...]

  10. Damaged Candidates Can’t Be Redeemed « Commentary Magazine on April 17th, 2013 6:17 pm

    [...] fact that a new NBC/Marist poll showed Weiner getting 15 percent of the Democratic vote in a New York primary might lead some to [...]

  11. Does Christine Quinn have enough in her tank to win the mayoral race? | avianneflu on April 22nd, 2013 12:42 pm

    [...] to a Marist poll released last week, Quinn is the current democratic favorite with 30 percent of registered [...]

  12. A Liberal Dilemma: NYC’s Mayoral Race, Seen From Brownstone Brooklyn - The NYC Info News 24-hours in New York City, delivering breaking news and features about the five boroughs. - The Nyc Info on May 7th, 2013 10:28 pm

    [...] is leaning toward Sal Albanese, a former city councilman who garnered just 2 percent in the recent Marist poll showing Weiner second in the Democratic field, behind City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, and [...]

  13. A Liberal Dilemma: NYC’s Mayoral Race, Seen From Brownstone Brooklyn | CCLAH on May 7th, 2013 10:50 pm

    [...] is leaning toward Sal Albanese, a former city councilman who garnered just 2 percent in the recent Marist poll showing Weiner second in the Democratic field, behind City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, and [...]

  14. If Sanford can come back, Weiner can too, right? Not exactly. on May 8th, 2013 3:07 pm

    [...] Quinn, the City Council speaker whose formidable infrastructure will be tough to match and who, polls show, has jumped out to an early [...]

  15. Weiner NYC Mayor Campaign roll out see’s him gain on Quinn to within single digits… | Politicaldog101.Com on May 28th, 2013 1:56 pm

    [...] In April, amid speculation Weiner would enter the race for mayor, he garnered the support of 15% of registered Democrats.  Quinn at that time received 26%, a lead of eleven points.  12%, last month, indicated they would vote for John Liu.  Bill de Blasio and Bill Thompson each received 11%.  Sal Albanese had 2%, and 1% mentioned another candidate.  22% were undecided. [...]

  16. Poll shows Weiner making gains in NYC mayoral raceWinToMac | WinToMac on May 28th, 2013 2:20 pm

    [...] the poll: In April, amid speculation Weiner would enter the race for mayor, he garnered the support of 15% of [...]

  17. Poll shows Weiner making gains in NYC mayoral race - Info Gama | More Info More Hungama on May 28th, 2013 2:26 pm

    [...] the poll: In April, amid speculation Weiner would enter the race for mayor, he garnered the support of 15% of [...]

  18. Anthony Weiner has nothing to lose on June 6th, 2013 12:28 pm

    [...] rumors swirled in the spring that he would jump into the race for City Hall, the  Marist Poll in April put his support at 15 percent, 11 points behind frontrunner Christine Quinn, the city council [...]

  19. FiveThirtyEight: Early Leader in Polls Usually Wins New York Mayoral Primary | New-York NewsNew-York News on June 8th, 2013 9:03 pm

    [...] from just under 40 percent early in the year to the high 20s in the most recent Quinnipiac and Marist polls, which included Mr. [...]

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