3/13: Trump Ahead in FL, IL… Kasich Up in OH… Clinton Ahead in FL, IL, and OH

In the Republican presidential primary contests in Florida and Illinois, businessman Donald Trump exhibits continued strength in his bid for the GOP nomination.  Trump is also a strong second in Ohio behind the state’s popular governor, John Kasich.  On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton outpaces Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders in Florida and Ohio, but a closer contest exists in Illinois.

“Coming out of ‘Super Tuesday Round Two,’ we should know whether Hillary Clinton has regained her momentum to go along with her current delegate lead,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “We should also have a better sense of whether Donald Trump is on the path to his party’s nomination or whether the GOP is staring at a contested convention in this unprecedented election cycle.”

In Illinois, Trump, 34%, leads Texas Senator Ted Cruz, 25%, among the state’s likely Republican primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who voted by absentee ballot.  Kasich follows with 21%, and Florida Senator Marco Rubio trails with 16%.

In Florida, Trump bests favorite son, Rubio, 43% to 22%, among the state’s likely Republican primary electorate.  Cruz follows with 21% while Kasich lags behind with 9%.

On Kasich’s home turf of Ohio, Kasich has the support of 39% to 33% for Trump among likely Republican primary voters in Ohio including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who voted by absentee ballot.  Cruz garners 19%, and Rubio has 6% among the likely GOP electorate in Ohio.

In Illinois and Florida, Trump has the advantage among most key demographic groups except for likely Republican primary voters who self-identify as very conservative.  Among this voting group, Cruz has the advantage.  In Ohio, Kasich draws strength from those who describe themselves as moderate, college graduates, women, or Republicans.

58% of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference or who voted by absentee ballot in Illinois, 65% of those in Florida, and 65% of those in Ohio strongly support their choice of candidate.  In Illinois and Florida, Trump enjoys the greatest intensity of support among his backers.  In Ohio, Trump, Kasich, and Cruz have the identical proportion, 67%, of dedicated followers.

In all three states, Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich vie for the title of most preferred second choice candidate among likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.

Looking at the Democratic side in Florida, Clinton receives 61% to 34% for Sanders among the state’s likely Democratic electorate including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who voted by absentee ballot.  In Ohio, Clinton has the support of 58% to 38% for Sanders.  In Illinois, Clinton edges Sanders, 51% to 45%, among likely Democratic primary voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who voted by absentee ballot.

In each of these states, Clinton’s support is bolstered by likely Democratic primary voters who are African American, those over 45 years old, Democrats, or women.  Sanders’ support is buoyed by those who self-identify as very liberal, independents, those younger than 45 years old, or first time voters.  Sanders outpaces Clinton among Latinos in Illinois and runs competitively with her among these voters in Florida.

75% of likely Democratic primary voters with a candidate preference or who voted by absentee ballot in Florida, 70% of those in Illinois, and 64% of those in Ohio strongly support their candidate of choice.  In Illinois and Ohio, Clinton and Sanders enjoy similar intensities of support among their respective backers.  However, in Florida, the proportion of Clinton’s supporters, 80%, who report a firm commitment to her is greater than that of Sanders’ backers, 66%, who report the same level of intensity.

When Clinton or Sanders is paired against Trump or Cruz in hypothetical general election matchups, the Democratic candidate has the advantage among registered voters in Illinois and Florida.  However, in Ohio, Clinton leads Trump by only 6 points and is 2 points behind Cruz.  Sanders leads Trump by 9 points in Ohio and is competitive against Cruz.

When Clinton, 47%, and Rubio, 46%, are paired against each other in Florida, the two are competitive.  In Ohio, Kasich leads Clinton by 21 points among registered voters in the state.

 

54% of Illinois residents, 48% of Floridians, and 45% of Ohio residents approve of the job performance of President Barack Obama.  This includes 88% of likely Democratic primary voters in Illinois, 83% of those in Florida, and 83% of the Ohio likely Democratic electorate.

Complete March 13, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Release of Florida, Illinois, and Ohio

Complete March 13, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of Florida (Adults & Registered Voters)

Complete March 13, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of Florida (Likely Republican Primary Voters)

Complete March 13, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of Florida (Likely Democratic Primary Voters)

Complete March 13, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of Illinois (Adults & Registered Voters)

Complete March 13, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of Illinois (Likely Republican Primary Voters)

Complete March 13, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of Illinois (Likely Democratic Primary Voters)

Complete March 13, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of Ohio (Adults & Registered Voters)

Complete March 13, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of Ohio (Likely Republican Primary Voters)

Complete March 13, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of Ohio (Likely Democratic Primary Voters)

Marist Poll Methodology for Florida

Nature of the Sample for Florida

Marist Poll Methodology for Illinois

Nature of the Sample for Illinois

Marist Poll Methodology for Ohio

Nature of the Sample for Ohio

 

Comments

38 Responses to “3/13: Trump Ahead in FL, IL… Kasich Up in OH… Clinton Ahead in FL, IL, and OH”

  1. Marist polls: Kasich ahead in Ohio, Trump up big in Florida | Al Green on March 13th, 2016 11:23 am

    [...] in his home state of Florida, while John Kasich is holding on to a lead in Ohio, according to new NBC/Marist polls released Sunday morning, which also show Democrats typically beating the leading Republicans in [...]

  2. New Polling in Florida, Illinois and Ohio - T-SPAN.TV on March 13th, 2016 11:24 am

    [...] New NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Polls find Donald Trump still leading among likely Republican primary voters in the GOP presidential primary contests in Florida and  Illinois and Gov. John Kasich ahead in Ohio: [...]

  3. New Polling In Florida, Illinois And Ohio on March 13th, 2016 11:29 am

    [...] New NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Polls find Donald Trump still leading among likely Republican primary voters in the GOP presidential primary contests in Florida and  Illinois and Gov. John Kasich ahead in Ohio: [...]

  4. Marist polls: Kasich ahead in Ohio, Trump up big in Florida - GOP Party on March 13th, 2016 11:36 am

    [...] in his home state of Florida, while John Kasich is holding on to a lead in Ohio, according to new NBC/Marist polls released Sunday morning, which also show Democrats typically beating the leading Republicans in [...]

  5. New Polling in Florida, Illinois and Ohio | CAPITOL ZERO on March 13th, 2016 1:03 pm

    [...] New NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Polls find Donald Trump still leading among likely Republican primary voters in the GOP presidential primary contests in Florida and  Illinois and Gov. John Kasich ahead in Ohio: [...]

  6. New Polling in Florida, Illinois and Ohio - Big Sky Headlines on March 13th, 2016 1:08 pm

    [...] New NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Polls find Donald Trump still leading among likely Republican primary voters in the GOP presidential primary contests in Florida and  Illinois and Gov. John Kasich ahead in Ohio: [...]

  7. Trump Threatens "Communist Friend" Bernie, Swamps Rubio In Florida | JPPress on March 13th, 2016 1:40 pm

    [...] Trump's rallies, one awkward fact remains – The Donald's lead increases. The latest NBC/Marist polls show Trump 'swamping' Rubio in his home state of Florida (43% to 21%), a solid lead in [...]

  8. Trump Threatens "Communist Friend" Bernie, Swamps Rubio In Florida | ValuBit on March 13th, 2016 1:43 pm

    [...] rallies, one awkward fact remains – The Donald’s lead increases. The latest NBC/Marist polls show Trump ‘swamping’ Rubio in his home state of Florida (43% to 21%), a solid lead in [...]

  9. Trump Threatens “Communist Friend” Bernie, Swamps Rubio In Florida | NewZSentinel on March 13th, 2016 1:48 pm

    [...] rallies, one awkward fact remains – The Donald’s lead increases. The latest NBC/Marist polls show Trump ‘swamping’ Rubio in his home state of Florida (43% to 21%), a solid lead in [...]

  10. Polls Ahead of the Republican Ohio & Florida Primaries … Illinois, North Carolina & Missori Also | Scared Monkeys on March 13th, 2016 1:50 pm

    [...] Trump appears way out a head in Florida of Marco Rubio in the latest Marist poll. Rubio’s main concern should not be whether he can win his own home Senate state of Florida, [...]

  11. Trump Threatens "Communist Friend" Bernie, Swamps Rubio In Florida | Zero Hedge on March 13th, 2016 1:55 pm

    [...] over Trump's rallies, one awkward fact remains – The Donald's lead increases. The latest NBC/Marist polls show Trump 'swamping' Rubio in his home state of Florida (43% to 21%), a solid lead in [...]

  12. FL/IL/OH:Clinton ahead in all three, Trump in FL/IL and Kasich in OH; Sanders stronger as Hillary but Kasich the only strong Republican by Marist | strehlspresidentialelection2016 on March 13th, 2016 3:48 pm
  13. Marist polls: Kasich ahead in Ohio, Trump up big in Florida | Eliyohu Mintz on March 13th, 2016 10:04 pm

    [...] in his home state of Florida, while John Kasich is holding on to a lead in Ohio, according to new NBC/Marist polls released Sunday morning, which also show Democrats typically beating the leading Republicans in [...]

  14. Today’s News 14th March 2016 | The One Hundredth Monkey on March 14th, 2016 3:06 am

    [...] Trump's rallies, one awkward fact remains – The Donald's lead increases. The latest NBC/Marist polls show Trump 'swamping' Rubio in his home state of Florida (43% to 21%), a solid lead in [...]

  15. Today’s News March 14, 2016 | Fiat Planet on March 14th, 2016 3:31 am

    [...] over Trump's rallies, one awkward fact remains – The Donald's lead increases. The latest NBC/Marist polls show Trump 'swamping' Rubio in his home state of Florida (43% to 21%), a solid lead in Illinois [...]

  16. Trump Threatens "Communist Friend" Bernie, Swamps Rubio In Florida | THE UNHIVED MIND III on March 14th, 2016 3:37 am

    [...] Trump's rallies, one awkward fact remains – The Donald's lead increases. The latest NBC/Marist polls show Trump 'swamping' Rubio in his home state of Florida (43% to 21%), a solid lead in [...]

  17. Trump Threatens "Communist Friend" Bernie, Swamps Rubio In Florida - News Near You | Latest Trending News on March 14th, 2016 4:49 am

    [...] rallies, one awkward fact remains – The Donald’s lead increases. The latest NBC/Marist polls show Trump ‘swamping’ Rubio in his home state of Florida (43% to 21%), a solid lead in [...]

  18. Rahm Emanuel steers clear of 2016 race – NewsBlog on March 14th, 2016 11:11 am

    [...] in Illinois. A Chicago Tribune poll last week showed Clinton leading Sanders 67 to 25 percent. yet an NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll released Sunday showed Clinton along with an edge of just 6 percentage [...]

  19. Rahm Emanuel steers clear of 2016 race – NewsBlog on March 14th, 2016 11:11 am

    [...] in Illinois. A Chicago Tribune poll last week showed Clinton leading Sanders 67 to 25 percent. yet an NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll released Sunday showed Clinton along with an edge of just 6 percentage [...]

  20. Rahm Emanuel steers clear of 2016 race – CNN International – Darwin Survival on March 14th, 2016 6:25 pm

    [...] in Illinois. A Chicago Tribune poll last week showed Clinton leading Sanders 67 to 25 percent. But an NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll released Sunday showed Clinton with an edge of only six percentage [...]

  21. Knowledge is Power | Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel steers clear of 2016 race as Sanders goes on offensive on March 15th, 2016 3:28 am

    [...] in Illinois. A Chicago Tribune poll last week showed Clinton leading Sanders 67 to 25 percent. But an NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll released Sunday showed Clinton with an edge of only six percentage [...]

  22. John Kasich Consistently Beats Hillary Clinton in the Polls | Heat Street on April 17th, 2016 6:00 pm

    [...] Polling also shows Kasich well-positioned to win his home state of Ohio, a crucial swing state in presidential election, in a matchup versus Hillary. Two polls from early March showed him leading by comfortable margins of 15 percent (PPP) and 21 percent (NBC/Wall Street Journal). [...]

  23. Down-Ballot Republicans Brace for Chance of Sharing Trump’s Ticket | News4Security on May 3rd, 2016 9:16 am

    [...] s going to have to defend her associations, Artl said. For Kirk, it will be an uphill struggle: A March Marist poll[4] put Clinton up by 25 points in Illinois, and Kirk s own internals have him behind Duckworth by [...]

  24. Ohio: PPP: May 2016 | Swing State Symphony on May 9th, 2016 11:13 pm

    [...] News/Wall Street Journal/Marist: March 2016 (results): Clinton: 48, Trump 42% (2,052 registered voters, margin of error 2.2 percentage points) [...]

  25. Clinton campaign scares supporters with poll showing Trump beating her in Ohio - The Washington Post on May 11th, 2016 11:17 am

    [...] with other polls, including a March NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll that showed Clinton with a six-point lead in Ohio. An April survey of Pennsylvania by the same poll gave Clinton a 15-point lead over Trump. And in [...]

  26. Clinton campaign scares supporters with poll showing Trump beating her in Ohio | SosaNews.com on May 11th, 2016 11:28 am

    [...] with other polls, including a March NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll that showed Clinton with a six-point lead in Ohio. An April survey of Pennsylvania by the same poll gave Clinton a 15-point lead over Trump. And in [...]

  27. Clinton campaign scares supporters with poll showing Trump beating her in Ohio | News Guardian on May 11th, 2016 11:31 am

    [...] with other polls, including a March NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll that showed Clinton with a six-point lead in Ohio. An April survey of Pennsylvania by the same poll gave Clinton a 15-point lead over Trump. And in [...]

  28. Clinton campaign scares supporters with poll showing Trump beating her in Ohio | Latest US Politics News on May 11th, 2016 11:51 am

    [...] with other polls, including a March NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll that showed Clinton with a six-percentage-point lead in Ohio. An April survey of Pennsylvania by the same poll gave Clinton a 15-point lead over Trump. And in [...]

  29. Clinton campaign scares supporters with poll showing Trump beating her in Ohio | Top Direct News on May 11th, 2016 2:25 pm

    [...] with other polls, including a March NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll that showed Clinton with a six-percentage-point lead in Ohio. An April survey of Pennsylvania by the same poll gave Clinton a 15-point lead over Trump. And in [...]

  30. The Worst Republican for the Job | The Langley Tribune on May 21st, 2016 11:35 am

    [...] Trump lost to Clinton by 3 points. In Florida, Kasich wasn’t tested, but Rubio made the state a tossup against Clinton. Trump lost the state to Clinton by 8 points. In New York, where Kasich trailed [...]

  31. Donald Trump States: Which Blue States Can He Really Win? on July 11th, 2016 12:05 pm

    [...] Illinois hasn’t backed a Republican presidential candidate since 1988. Clinton led Trump by 25 percentage points in a poll in early March. Trump’s own political director is not focusing on the state, and [...]

  32. Can Donald Trump Really Win These Blue States? | Nigeria Newsstand on July 11th, 2016 12:26 pm

    [...] Illinois hasn’t backed a Republican presidential candidate since 1988. Clinton led Trump by 25 percentage points in a poll in early March. Trump’s own political director is not focusing on the state, and [...]

  33. Can Donald Trump Really Win These Blue States? | USA Press on July 11th, 2016 12:35 pm

    [...] Illinois hasn’t backed a Republican presidential candidate since 1988. Clinton led Trump by 25 percentage points in a poll in early March. Trump’s own political director is not focusing on the state, and [...]

  34. Could this be the Presidential election where the political map is totally redrawn? – James Wrigley's Blog on August 11th, 2016 12:07 pm

    [...] of the House of Representatives Tammy Duckworth, in a state that strongly leans Democrat — current polls show Hillary leading Trump by 25% in Illinois. Therefore, it is no surprise that Kirk has been [...]

  35. Where Does The Battle For The Senate Stand? | US News Headlines For Breaking US National News USA News on August 17th, 2016 6:03 pm

    [...] acknowledge the state’s deep Democratic tilt makes Kirk’s job very difficult. A NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll released in March found Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump by 25 points, 57 to 32 percent. Kirk has tried [...]

  36. Where does the battle for the Senate stand? on August 17th, 2016 6:35 pm

    [...] acknowledge the state’s deep Democratic tilt makes Kirk’s job very difficult. A NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll released in March found Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump by 25 points, 57 to 32 percent. Kirk has tried [...]

  37. Where does the battle for the Senate stand? | PolitiCLEAR on August 17th, 2016 7:25 pm

    [...] acknowledge the state’s deep Democratic tilt makes Kirk’s job very difficult. A NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll released in March found Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump by 25 points, 57 to 32 percent. Kirk has tried to [...]

  38. Where does the battle for the Senate stand? – Read The Bill First on August 17th, 2016 7:35 pm

    [...] most analysts acknowledge the state’s deep Democratic tilt makes Kirk’s job very difficult. A NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll released in March found Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump by 25 points, 57 to 32 percent. Kirk has tried to [...]

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