11/3: Obama Holds Lead Over Romney in Ohio

November 3, 2012 by  
Filed under Election 2012, Featured, NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll

The presidential contest is in its final days, and in the key battleground state of Ohio, President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden receive the support of 51% to 45% for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan among Ohio likely voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted early.  One percent backs another candidate, and 3% are undecided.

“Both campaigns have invested heavily in Ohio and continue to do so,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “As Election Day approaches, President Obama is better positioned to win the critical Buckeye State.”

Click Here for Complete November 3, 2012 Ohio NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Release

Click Here for Complete November 3, 2012 Ohio NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables

In NBC News/WSJ/Marist’s October 11th survey, Obama and Biden were ahead of Romney and Ryan, 51% to 45%, among likely voters statewide, including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee.  One percent was for another candidate, and 4% were undecided.

Key points:

  • Party ID.  94% of Democrats who are likely to vote support President Obama.  95% of Republicans who are likely to cast a ballot are for Romney.  Among independent voters in Ohio, 48% support Romney compared with 44% for Obama.
  • Enthusiasm.  69% of likely voters in Ohio are very enthusiastic about going to the polls on Tuesday.  Looking at each candidate’s supporters, 74% of those who are behind Romney express a high degree of enthusiasm compared with 70% of those who back the president.  Enthusiasm in Ohio has increased over the past few weeks.  In the previous survey, 60% of likely voters expressed a high level of enthusiasm.  There has been a bump in the enthusiasm for, both, supporters of Obama and Romney.  In mid-October, 65% of Romney’s supporters were pumped up about casting their ballot compared with 59% of Obama’s backers.
  • Intensity of support.  88% of Ohio likely voters who prefer a candidate strongly support their choice, and 10% are somewhat behind their pick.  One percent might vote differently, and 1% is unsure.  90% of Ohio likely voters who are for Romney are firmly in his camp compared with 87% of Obama’s backers who express a similar level of commitment.
  • Gender.  Among women who are likely to go to the polls, Obama — 57% — leads Romney — 39%.  However, among men in Ohio who are likely to vote, Romney garners the support of 52% to 44% for Obama.  In NBC News/WSJ/Marist’s previous survey, Obama — 54% — led Romney — 42% — among women who are likely to vote.  At that time, men who are likely to cast a ballot divided, 47% for Obama and 47% for Romney.
  • Age.  President Obama has the support of 49% of voters under 45 years of age compared with Romney who receives 45%.  Similarly, the president has a six point lead over Romney among voters 45 and older, 51% to 45%.
  • Early voters.  35% of registered voters in Ohio say they have already voted or plan to do so early.  Among likely voters, Obama — 62% — leads Romney — 36%.  However, Romney — 52% — is ahead of Obama — 42% — among likely voters who plan to go to the polls on Tuesday.

Looking at registered voters in Ohio, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted early, 51% support Obama compared with 44% for Romney.  Two percent are behind another candidate, and 3% are undecided.

Table: 2012 Presidential Tossup (OH Likely Voters with Leaners and Early Voters)

Table: Enthusiasm to Vote (OH Likely Voters)

Table: Intensity of Support (OH Likely Voters)

Table: 2012 Presidential Tossup (OH Registered Voters with Leaners and Early Voters)

Majority Views Obama Favorably… More Divided About Romney

52% of Ohio likely voters have a positive view of the president.  45%, however, have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 4% are unsure.

In NBC News/WSJ/Marist’s previous survey, 51% of likely voters statewide had a favorable impression of the president while 44% did not.  Five percent, at that time, were unsure.

45% of likely voters think well of Romney while 48% do not.  Six percent are unsure.

In Mid-October, 44% of Ohio likely voters had a favorable opinion of him while 50% did not.  Six percent, then, were unsure.

Table: President Barack Obama Favorability (OH Likely Voters)

Table: Mitt Romney Favorability (OH Likely Voters)

Candidates Close on Economy… Obama Tops Romney on Foreign Policy

48% of Ohio registered voters think Obama will do a better job handling the nation’s economy.  45%, though, believe Romney is more capable to deal with the issue.  Seven percent are unsure.  Among likely voters in Ohio, 48% have more confidence in the president to improve the economy while 46% say Romney is the candidate for the job.  Six percent are unsure.

When NBC News/WSJ/Marist last reported this question, 47% of registered voters statewide said Obama would better tackle the economy while 45% thought Romney would do a better job.  Eight percent, at that time, were unsure.

When it comes to foreign policy, Obama — 50% — outdistances Romney — 40%.  10% are unsure.  Likely voters agree.  Among this group of voters, 50% say Obama is better suited to take on foreign policy issues.  This compares with 41% who think Romney can better handle these challenges.  Eight percent are unsure.

Last month, Obama — 50% — also had the upper hand on foreign policy over Romney — 40% — among registered voters statewide.  10%, then, were unsure.

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling the Economy (OH Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling the Economy (OH Likely Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling Foreign Policy (OH Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling Foreign Policy (OH Likely Voters)

Half Approve of Obama’s Job Performance… President Receives Good Reviews on Handling of Hurricane Sandy

50% of registered voters statewide approve of the president’s overall job performance.  45% disapprove, and 6% are unsure.

In mid-October, 47% gave the president a thumbs-up while 46% thought he fell short.  Six percent were unsure.

72% of registered voters approve of how President Obama is handling Hurricane Sandy.  Seven percent disapprove, and 20% are unsure.  Most Democrats — 90% — praise the president’s actions, and a majority of Republicans — 53% — do the same.  Among independents, 69% give the president high marks on his handling of this natural disaster.

Among Ohio likely voters, 73% approve of how the president dealt with this issue.  Seven percent disapprove, and 19% are unsure.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating in Ohio (OH Registered Voters)

Table: Obama’s Handling of Hurricane Sandy (OH Registered Voters)

Table: Obama’s Handling of Hurricane Sandy (OH Likely Voters)

Not Quite Half Sees Country on Wrong Path

49% of registered voters in Ohio believe the nation is moving in the wrong direction while 45% think it is traveling in the right one.  Six percent are unsure.

Previously, 51% of Ohio registered voters thought the country was on the wrong path while 44% said it was on the proper course.  Five percent were unsure.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (OH Registered Voters)

U.S. Senate Race Closer, but Brown Still in Front

In the U.S. Senate race in Ohio, 50% of likely voters statewide, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted early, support Sherrod Brown.  This compares with 45% who back Josh Mandel.  One percent is for another candidate, and 4% are undecided.

When NBC News/WSJ/Marist last reported this question, Brown — 52% — led Mandel — 41% — among likely voters, including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee.  One percent was for another candidate, and 6% were undecided.

Among registered voters in Ohio, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted early, 49% support Brown compared with 44% for Mandel.  One percent backs another candidate, and 5% are undecided.

Table: 2012 U.S. Senate Tossup in Ohio: Brown/Mandel (OH Likely Voters with Leaners and Early Voters)

Table: 2012 U.S. Senate Tossup in Ohio: Brown/Mandel (OH Registered Voters with Leaners and Early Voters)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

Comments

10 Responses to “11/3: Obama Holds Lead Over Romney in Ohio”

  1. Capitalist Infidel on November 3rd, 2012 10:32 am

    D+9? Really? I wonder if someone can weigh this poll to what the party id in Ohio will likely be. In 2010 it was R+1. So lets give the democrats an advantage of D+2 (even though it will most likely be even or even R+1) What would Romney’s advantage be with an honest poll?

  2. Capitalist Infidel on November 3rd, 2012 11:14 am

    Someone weighted this poll at a D+1 which is probably right on for the party id in Ohio and the numbers are 49.86 Romney to 48,9 for Obama. An honest poll puts Romney up 1. Still a tight race but at least we now know which pollsters are in the tank for Obama.

  3. Mary Azzoli on November 3rd, 2012 1:37 pm

    We do not weight by party identification. And, therefore, this poll has not been weighted by party identification.

  4. Capitalist Infidel on November 3rd, 2012 8:54 pm

    How in the world did you end up with D+9? Any random sample would have been 36/36/28 give or take a point or two. My guess is you just grabbed a phone book of Cuyahoga County and called it a day.

  5. Jimmy2times on November 3rd, 2012 9:24 pm

    Welcome to Marist Polling…the most inaccurate, in the tank for Obama propaganda out there. Get ready to eat crow on Wednesday liars

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