11/1: Obama Leads Romney in Iowa

November 1, 2012 by  
Filed under Election 2012, Featured, NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll

With the clock counting down to Election Day, President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden receive the support of 50% of likely voters in Iowa, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee, to 44% for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan.  Two percent support another candidate, and 4% are undecided.

“President Obama’s lead in Iowa is due to those who have voted early or plan to do so, including many independents,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Obama has a 21 point lead among Independent voters who plan to cast an early ballot while Romney is up 9 points among independents who plan to vote on Election Day.”

Click Here for Complete November 1, 2012 Iowa NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Release

Click Here for Complete November 1, 2012 Iowa NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables

When NBC News/WSJ/Marist reported this question earlier this month, 51% of likely voters, including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee, supported Obama and Biden while 43% backed Romney and Ryan.  Two percent were for another candidate, and 4% were undecided.

Key points:

  • Party ID.  94% of Democrats who are likely to vote are behind the president while 91% of Republicans who are likely to cast a ballot are for Romney.  Among likely independent voters, 47% support Obama compared with 39% for Romney.
  • Enthusiasm.  60% of likely voters are very enthusiastic about voting.  65% of likely voters who are Romney supporters are very enthusiastic to vote compared with 61% of those who back Obama.  Since NBC News/WSJ/Marist’s previous survey, enthusiasm is up slightly.  At that time, 55% of likely voters were very enthusiastic.  While there has been little change in the enthusiasm of Romney’s backers — 64%, there has been an increase among Obama’s backers.  In that last survey, 53% of Obama’s supporters said they were very enthusiastic.
  • Intensity of support.  88% of likely voters who support a candidate strongly support their choice.  12% are somewhat behind their pick while less than 1% might vote differently.  Less than 1% is unsure.  Among likely voters who support Obama, 86% are firmly committed to him.  This compares with 89% of Romney’s backers who say they stand strong behind their candidate.
  • Gender.  56% of women who are likely to go to the polls support Obama compared with 40% for Romney.  Among men who are likely to vote, Romney — 48% — edges Obama — 44%.
  • Age.  The president — 61% — leads Romney — 30% — among likely voters under the age of 30.  48% of likely voters 30 to 44 support Obama compared with 43% for Romney.  Those 45 to 59 divide, 49% for Obama, and 47% for Romney.  Obama — 48% — is neck and neck with Romney — 47% — among likely voters 60 and older.
  • Early voters.  45% of registered voters in Iowa have already voted or plan to do so before Election Day.  Among likely voters who have cast their ballot or plan to do so early, Obama — 62% — leads Romney — 35%.  Among those who plan to vote on Election Day, Romney — 55% — has the advantage over Obama — 35%.

Looking at registered voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee, Obama and Biden have 49% compared with 43% for Romney and Ryan.  Two percent support another candidate, and 6% are undecided.

Table: 2012 Presidential Tossup (IA Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentee)

Table: Enthusiasm to Vote (IA Likely Voters)

Table: Intensity of Support (IA Likely Voters)

Table: 2012 Presidential Tossup (IA Registered Voters with Leaners and Absentee)

Majority Views Obama Favorably… Romney Still More Negative than Positive

52% of likely voters in Iowa have a favorable view of President Obama.  This compares with 44% who have an unfavorable one.  Five percent are unsure.

Earlier this month, 54% of likely voters thought well of the president while 43% did not.  Three percent were unsure.

Romney’s favorability is still upside down.  43% have a positive view of him while 49% have an unfavorable impression of him.  Eight percent are unsure.

In NBC News/WSJ/Marist’s previous survey, 44% of likely voters statewide had a favorable opinion of Romney while 51% had an unfavorable one.  Five percent, at that time, were unsure.

Table: President Barack Obama Favorability (IA Likely Voters)

Table: Mitt Romney Favorability (IA Likely Voters)

Obama and Romney Neck and Neck on Economy…Obama Tops on Foreign Policy

When it comes to the nation’s economy, 44% of registered voters in Iowa think Obama will do a better job handling the economy, and the same proportion — 44% — believes Romney is more capable to handle the issue.  11% are unsure.  Among likely voters in Iowa, 45% say Obama is better suited to turn around the country’s economy, and 45% think Romney is the candidate for the job.  10% are unsure.

Earlier in October, 46% of Iowa registered voters statewide reported Obama was the stronger candidate on the economy compared with 46% who had this view of Romney. At that time, 9% were unsure.

However, Obama — 50% — outperforms Romney — 38% — among registered voters on foreign policy.  11% are unsure.  Similar proportions of likely voters agree.  51% think Obama is more capable to deal with foreign policy issues while 39% say Romney is.  10% are unsure.

Earlier this month, Obama — 51% — had the advantage over Romney — 39% — among registered voters in Iowa.  At that time, 11% were unsure.

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling the Economy (IA Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling the Economy (IA Likely Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling Foreign Policy (IA Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling Foreign Policy (IA Likely Voters)

Nearly Half Approve of Obama’s Job Performance

Among Iowa registered voters, 48% approve of the president’s job performance while 45% disapprove.  Seven percent are unsure.

Earlier this month, 50% gave Obama high marks while 43% thought he fell short.  Six percent were unsure.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating in Iowa (IA Registered Voters)

A Nation Off Track, Says Half

50% of Iowa registered voters think the country is moving in the wrong direction while 44% say it is traveling in the right one.  Six percent are unsure.

Previously, 47% of registered voters in Iowa thought the country’s compass was broken while 47% believed the nation’s trajectory was on target.  At that time, 6% were unsure.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (IA Registered Voters)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

Comments

One Response to “11/1: Obama Leads Romney in Iowa”

  1. 2012 Presidential Candidate Poll « The Pardu's Scroll on November 7th, 2012 2:29 pm

    [...] several polls over the last three days logging in a 5-6 points advantage for his campaign there (NBC Marist, Des Moines Register Iowa Poll). Furthermore, early voting numbers from [...]

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