10/30: Pennsylvania U.S. Senate: Leaning Republican

October 30, 2010 by  
Filed under Elections 2010, Featured, Politics

In the race for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania, Republican Pat Toomey leads Democrat Joe Sestak by 7 percentage points among likely voters including early voters and those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, according to this McClatchy-Marist Poll.

Pat Toomey (l) and Joe Sestak

Pat Toomey (l) and Joe Sestak

This data was collected from Tuesday, October 26, 2010 through Thursday, October 28, 2010, still five days from Election Day.

Click Here for Complete October 30, 2010 PA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

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Pennsylvania: U.S. Senate Likely Voters

Question: If next week’s election for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are: [If undecided: If you had to decide today, are you leaning more towards:]

Sestak

Toomey

Other

Undecided

PA LV Oct. 30, 2010

45%

52%

1%

2%

PA LV Oct.  4, 2010

42%

51%

1%

6%

Party ID
Democrat

89%

9%

1%

1%

Republican

8%

91%

<1%

1%

Independent

40%

51%

3%

7%

October 30, 2010 McClatchy-Marist Poll Pennsylvania Likely Voters including early voters and those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate N= 461 MOE +/- 5%. Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding.

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The Enthusiasm Game

40% of registered voters in Pennsylvania are very enthusiastic about voting on Election Day.  Republicans, conservatives, and men are more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats, liberals, and women.  The enthusiasm gap hasn’t narrowed since McClatchy-Marist’s previous poll.

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Pennsylvania:  Those Very Enthusiastic to Vote 2010

Question: Thinking about next week’s elections overall, would you say you are very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all about voting in the elections next week?

October 30, 2010

October 4, 2010

PA Registered Voters

40%

38%

Party ID

Democrat

36%

36%

Republican

58%

51%

Independent

23%

20%

Tea Party Supporters

57%

61%

Enthusiasm of Candidates’ Supporters

Voters for Sestak

32%

35%

Voters for Toomey

52%

55%

October 30, 2010 McClatchy-Marist Poll Pennsylvania Registered Voters including early voters N= 806 MOE +/- 3.5%.  Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding.

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Key Findings:

  • In a state that Barack Obama carried by 11 percentage points, the president’s approval rating currently stands at 47% among registered voters and 43% among those likely to vote on Tuesday.
  • Registered voters in Pennsylvania still divide about whether the worst of the nation’s economic problems are behind us or if the worst is still to come.  Voters who are pessimistic about the economy and believe it will get worse are more likely to vote Republican.  Those who are more optimistic and believe the worst is behind us are more likely to vote Democratic.
  • 57% of registered voters think President Obama inherited today’s economic conditions from his predecessor.  32% say Obama’s policies are responsible for the state of the economy.
  • 74% of voters who are likely to vote in Pennsylvania strongly support their choice of candidate.  77% who pull for Toomey and 71% who are behind Sestak firmly back their pick.
  • 49% of likely voters have a favorable impression of Toomey while 35% do not.  45% of likely voters in Pennsylvania view Sestak favorably while 40% view him unfavorably.
  • Among all registered voters in Pennsylvania, the race for U.S. Senate is Sestak 43% and Toomey 39%.  In the previous McClatchy-Marist survey, Toomey had 40% to Sestak’s 38% among the entire state’s electorate.

About The McClatchy-Marist Poll’s Methodology:

Telephone numbers were selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to turnout in comparable elections. In an effort to increase coverage, this land-line sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers. The land-line and cell phone samples were then combined.

Complete Marist Poll Methodology

Related McClatchy-Marist Poll Releases:

10/4: PA U.S. Senate Race: Toomey Leads Sestak by 9 Percentage Points Among Likely Voters

Comments

One Response to “10/30: Pennsylvania U.S. Senate: Leaning Republican”

  1. Jerr y on October 31st, 2010 8:02 am

    why is there no coverage on any network about Pa. US Rep. race,
    Carney and Casino Marino who was a US atty. under investigation who resigned, helped a Convicted FELON get a Gaming License, another Convicted Felon, etc…

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