10/25: Obama Edges Romney in Nevada

October 25, 2012 by  
Filed under Election 2012, Featured, NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll

Among Nevada likely voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted early or by absentee, President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden receive 50% to 47% for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan.  One percent backs another candidate, and 2% are undecided.

“As Election Day approaches, both candidates are experiencing a surge in enthusiasm among their supporters,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Romney’s supporters are more enthusiastic about voting than Obama’s which keeps Nevada competitive.”

Click Here for Complete October 25, 2012 Nevada NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Release

Click Here for Complete October 25, 2012 Nevada NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables

When NBC News/WSJ/Marist last reported this question in September, 49% of likely voters in Nevada, including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, were behind  Obama and Biden while 47% were for Romney and Ryan.  One percent threw their support behind another candidate, and 3% were undecided.

Key points:

  • Party ID.  94% of Democrats who are likely to vote support Obama while 90% of Republicans who are likely to go to the polls back Romney.  Among independent likely voters, 55% favor Romney compared with 40% for Obama.
  • Enthusiasm.  74% of likely voters are very enthusiastic about participating on Election Day.  Among Romney’s supporters, 80% say they are very enthusiastic.  74% of likely voters who are behind President Obama have a similar level of enthusiasm.  Both candidates have experienced a bump in the enthusiasm of their supporters, but Romney has the advantage.  In September, 62% of Obama’s backers and 65% of those behind Romney expressed a high degree of enthusiasm.
  • Intensity of support.  88% of Nevada likely voters strongly support their choice of candidate.  11% somewhat support their pick, and 1% may vote differently.  One percent is unsure.  Looking at each candidate’s supporters, 90% of likely voters who back Obama are strongly committed to him while 86% of those behind Romney are firmly entrenched in his camp.
  • Gender.  The gender gap has narrowed.  52% of women who are likely to vote rally for the president while 46% back Romney.  Looking at men who are likely to cast a ballot, 48% are for Obama while 47% are behind Romney.  In NBC News/WSJ/Marist’s September survey, Obama led Romney among women by 16 points, 57% to 41%.  Romney was ahead of Obama among men, at that time, by 11 points, 53% to 42%.
  • Age.  Young voters favor the president.  70% of Nevada likely voters who are under 30 years old support Obama compared with 28% for Romney.  Among those 30 to 44, Obama has 54% to 41% for Romney.  Romney — 49% — is neck and neck with Obama — 48% — among likely voters 45 to 59.  Romney — 52% — leads Obama — 46% — among likely voters who are 60 and older.
  • Early voters.  71% of likely voters in Nevada have voted or plan to do so before Election Day.  In 2008, 67% of the Nevada electorate voted early.  Obama — 53% — leads Romney — 45% — among likely voters who have cast their ballot or plan to do so before Election Day.  Romney — 58% — outpaces Obama — 36% — among likely voters who plan to go to the polls on Election Day.  Obama has a 15 point advantage among voters who have not decided whether to vote early or on Election Day, 53% to 38%.

Among Nevada registered voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted early, Obama has the support of 51% while Romney garners 45%.  One percent backs another candidate, and 3% are undecided.

Table: 2012 Presidential Tossup (NV Likely Voters with Leaners and Early Voters)

Table: Enthusiasm to Vote (NV Likely Voters)

Table: Intensity of Support (NV Likely Voters)

Table: 2012 Presidential Tossup (NV Registered Voters with Leaners and Early Voters)

Obama Perceived Winner of Third Debate, but Most Voters Already Made Their Choice

46% of likely voters in Nevada say the president was the victor of Monday night’s debate on foreign policy.  25%, however, think Romney came out on top.  15% do not give the advantage to either candidate, and 14% are unsure.

Did the debate make a difference?  96% of likely voters statewide say they picked their candidate before the debate while just 4% say they did so after the matchup.

When it comes to the method by which registered voters found out about the debate, 60% watched it firsthand.  22% followed its news coverage while 18% neither tuned in for the debate nor saw news coverage about it.

Table: Winner of the Final Presidential Debate (NV Likely Voters)

Table: Candidate Selection Made Before or After Debate (NV Likely Voters)

Table: Information Source for First Presidential Debate (NV Registered Voters)

Majority Perceives Obama Favorably, Divides about Romney

52% of likely voters in Nevada have a favorable impression of President Obama.  However, 44% have an unfavorable one, and 4% are unsure.

In NBC News/WSJ/Marist’s September survey in the state, 50% of Nevada likely voters had a positive view of the president while 47% had an unfavorable one.  Three percent, at the time,   were unsure.

When it comes to Romney’s favorability rating, 48% have a favorable opinion of him while 46% have an unfavorable impression of him.  Six percent are unsure.

In September, 45% thought well of Romney while 48% had an unfavorable impression of him.  Seven percent were unsure.

Table: President Barack Obama Favorability (NV Likely Voters)

Table: Mitt Romney Favorability (NV Likely Voters)

Obama and Romney Battle on Economy…Foreign Policy Goes to Obama

Which candidate will do a better job handling the U.S. economy?  48% of registered voters in Nevada think Obama will compared with 47% who say Romney is the candidate for the job.  Five percent are unsure.  Looking at likely voters in the state, 49% believe Romney is more likely to turn around the nation’s economy while 46% say Obama is the stronger candidate.  Five percent are unsure.

When NBC News/WSJ/Marist last reported this question in September, 48% of registered voters believed Obama was more capable to deal with the economy while 46% thought Romney was.  Six percent, at that time, were unsure.

In the foreign policy sphere, Obama — 52% — leads Romney — 43% — among Nevada registered voters.  Six percent are unsure.  Likely voters in the state agree.  51% believe Obama is the stronger candidate on foreign policy while 44% say Romney is.  Five percent are unsure.

Last month, 50% of registered voters believed Obama was more capable to deal with this policy area while 43% said Romney was better prepared.  Seven percent, then, were unsure.

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling the Economy (NV Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling the Economy (NV Likely Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling Foreign Policy (NV Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling Foreign Policy (NV Likely Voters)

Bounce in Obama’s Approval Rating in Nevada

51% of registered voters in Nevada approve of the job President Obama is doing in office while 45% do not.  Four percent are unsure.

In NBC News/WSJ/Marist’s previous survey, 47% of registered voters statewide gave the president a thumbs-up.  47% said he missed the mark, and 6% were unsure.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating in Nevada (NV Registered Voters)

Nation Needs a New Path, Say 50%

Half of Nevada registered voters think the country is moving in the wrong direction.  47% say it is traveling in the right one, and 3% are unsure.

More registered voters in Nevada are optimistic about the future of the country than in September.  At that time, 55% believed the nation’s compass was broken while 41% reported its trajectory was on target.  Four percent were unsure.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (NV Registered Voters)

Heller Edges Berkley in U.S. Senate Race in Nevada

Republican incumbent Dean Heller receives 48% to 45% for Democrat Shelley Berkley in the race for U.S. Senate in Nevada among likely voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted early or by absentee.  Two percent are for another candidate, and 6% are undecided.

In NBC News/WSJ/Marist’s September survey, 49% of likely voters including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate were for Heller compared with 43% for Berkley.  One percent supported another candidate, and 6% were undecided.

Among Nevada registered voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward candidate and those who voted early, Heller — 46% — is tied with Berkley — 46%.  One percent backs another candidate, and 7% are undecided.

Table: 2012 U.S. Senate Tossup in Nevada: Berkley/Heller (NV Likely Voters with Leaners and Early Voters)

Table: 2012 U.S. Senate Tossup in Nevada: Berkley/Heller (NV Registered Voters with Leaners and Early Voters)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

Comments

2 Responses to “10/25: Obama Edges Romney in Nevada”

  1. Romney In National Polls Overtaking Obama By Narrow Margin Posted: 10/26/2012 11:05 am EDT | COWBOYRON NEWS on October 26th, 2012 4:46 pm

    [...] Another Marist/NBC/Wall Street Journal poll in Nevada gives Obama a 3 percentage point advantage (50 percent to 47 percent), just slightly lower than the tracking model’s current estimate of a 3.3 percent lead (49.6 percent to 46.3 percent), as of this writing. [...]

  2. AJ Maimbourg on October 26th, 2012 8:52 pm

    I think it is deplorable that ALL candidates are not considered in these polls! David VanDerBeek is on the ballot and has a constitutional right to be given the same courtesies as all other candidates! We the People deserve to KNOW all the candidates and shame on you for not including him! I suggest you add him to any future polls you conduct!!!!

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