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10/14: NC: Clinton Edges Trump… OH: Clinton and Trump Competitive

Election 2016

10/14: NC: Clinton Edges Trump… OH: Clinton and Trump Competitive

In North Carolina, Democrat Hillary Clinton, 45%, has a 4-point edge over Republican Donald Trump, 41%, among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who have already voted.  Libertarian Gary Johnson has the support of 9%.  Two percent support someone else, and 3% are undecided.  Of note, in North Carolina, Jill Stein of the Green Party has write-in status.

In Ohio, Trump receives the support of 42% while Clinton has 41% among the state’s likely electorate including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who have already voted.  Johnson garners the backing of 9% while the Green Party’s Jill Stein has 4%.  One percent of likely voters are for another candidate, and 3% are undecided.

“When you talk about 2016 breaking all the rules, look no further than Ohio and North Carolina,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Obama carried the Buckeye State twice, but now it could go either way.  Although the Tar Heel State cast its 15 electoral votes for Mitt Romney in 2012, it could be the dealmaker for the Clinton campaign this time.”

In North Carolina, Clinton has the support of almost nine in ten Democrats who are likely to vote, 89%, while Trump has the backing of more than eight in ten Republicans, 86%.  Among independents likely to cast a ballot, Clinton and Trump each receive 36%.  Johnson garners a notable 20% of independents in North Carolina.

Support differs based on race.  Clinton, 83%, overwhelmingly carries likely voters who are African American.  Trump receives only 4% of the African American vote.  Trump, 53%, receives majority support among likely voters who are white while Clinton has 34%.  Among white likely voters with a college education, Clinton, 45%, and Trump, 41%, are competitive.  However, Trump, 63%, outpaces Clinton, 25%, by more than two to one among white likely voters without a college degree.

A gender gap is present.  Clinton, 51%, is ahead of Trump, 37%, among North Carolina likely voters who are women.  Trump, 45%, leads Clinton, 38%, among likely voters who are men.

Clinton, 47%, surpasses Trump, 24%, among likely voters in North Carolina who are under 30.  Of note, 24% rally for Johnson.

In Ohio, Clinton and Trump protect their respective party bases.  86% of Democrats support Clinton while 82% of Republicans back Trump.  Among independents likely to cast a ballot, Trump has 39% to 32% for Clinton.  18% of independents support Johnson.

Again, African American likely voters, by far, support Clinton, 83%, over Trump, 4%, but Trump, 48%, has a double-digit lead over Clinton, 35%, among likely voters who are white.  Among white likely voters with a college education, Clinton receives 47% to 40% for  Trump.  Trump, 53%, bests Clinton, 27%, among white likely voters who do not have a college degree.

Looking at gender, Clinton, 47%, leads Trump, 36%, among women who are likely to cast a ballot while Trump, 49%, is ahead of Clinton, 34%, among likely voters who are men.

Clinton leads among Ohio likely voters under 30 by only 10 points: 38% for Clinton to 28% for Trump.  One in four likely voters under 30, 25%, support Johnson.

Among registered voters in North Carolina, 45% are for Clinton while 39% are for Trump, and 10% are for Johnson.  Two percent support another candidate, and 4% are undecided.  In Ohio, among registered voters, Clinton and Trump are tied at 40%.  Johnson garners 10% while Stein has 4%.  Two percent back someone else, and 3% are undecided.

In the two-way contest between only Clinton and Trump, 48% of likely voters in North Carolina including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who have already voted support Clinton while 43% are for Trump.  Five percent do not support either candidate, and 1% back someone else.   Three percent are undecided.

Looking at intensity of support, 71% of likely voters with a candidate preference in North Carolina strongly support their choice of candidate for president.  70% of those who support Clinton, compared with 73% who are for Trump, say they are firmly committed to their selection.

In the head-to-head matchup in Ohio, Trump and Clinton both receive 45% among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who have already voted.  Seven percent do not back either candidate, and 1% are for someone else.  Three percent are undecided.

70% of likely voters with a candidate preference in Ohio say they strongly back their presidential candidate.  69% of likely voters who are for Clinton are firmly committed to her.  A similar proportion of Trump’s backers, 71%, say they will not waver in their commitment to him.

Clinton and Trump are not highly regarded in either North Carolina or Ohio.  Among likely voters in North Carolina, 42% have a favorable opinion of Clinton while 56% have an unfavorable view of her, a net negative of 14 points.  Trump’s net negative score is even higher at 25 points.  35% of likely voters in North Carolina have a positive view of Trump while 60% have a negative one.

A similar scenario plays out in Ohio.  Clinton receives a net negative rating of 22 points among likely voters statewide.  37% have a favorable attitude toward Clinton while 59% have an unfavorable opinion of her.  With 35% of likely voters in Ohio reporting they have a favorable opinion of Trump and 61% saying they have an unfavorable one, Trump’s net negative is 26 points.

Turning to the U.S. Senate in North Carolina, Republican incumbent Richard Burr and his Democratic challenger Deborah Ross are tied at 46% among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who have already voted.  Two percent are for another candidate, and 6% are undecided.  Among likely voters with a candidate preference, 57% say they strongly support their choice for U.S. Senate.  54% of Burr’s supporters, compared with 59% of Ross’ backers, report they are firmly committed to their candidate for U.S. Senate.

In Ohio, Republican incumbent Rob Portman, 55%, has a double-digit lead over Democrat Ted Strickland, 37%, among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who have already voted.  Three percent are for someone else, and 5% are undecided.  53% of Ohio likely voters with a candidate preference for U.S. Senate say they strongly support their choice of candidate.  Among Portman’s backers, 57% strongly support him.  48% of likely voters behind Strickland express a similar intensity of support.

“The Democrats once hoped that Portman would be vulnerable, but he is well on his way to winning re-election,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, North Carolina, surprisingly, is the state with the Senate race that could go either way.”

Where does the contest for North Carolina governor stand?  Roy Cooper, the Democratic challenger, is closely matched with sitting Republican Governor Pat McCrory, 49% to 48%, among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who have already voted.  One percent support another candidate, and 3% are undecided.  Among likely voters with a candidate preference, 57% report they are firmly behind their choice of candidate for North Carolina governor.  59% of Cooper’s backers say they are strongly behind their candidate.  This compares with 54% of McCrory’s supporters who express the same.

50% of North Carolina adults, including 48% of likely voters, approve of the job performance of President Barack Obama.  44% disapprove, including 46% of likely voters, and 6% of residents are unsure.  In Ohio, residents divide.  46% approve of the president’s performance in office and the same proportion disapprove.  Eight percent are unsure.  Among likely voters, 45% have a positive view of Obama, and 49% disapprove.

Complete October 14, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Release of North Carolina and Ohio

Complete October 14, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of North Carolina (Tables of Likely Voters)

Complete October 14, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of North Carolina (Tables of Adults and Registered Voters)

Complete October 14, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Ohio (Tables of Likely Voters)

Complete October 14, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Ohio (Tables of Adults and Registered Voters)

Marist Poll Methodology for North Carolina

Nature of the Sample for North Carolina

Marist Poll Methodology for Ohio

Nature of the Sample for Ohio

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  1. Pingback: Ohio is crucial to win the White House. But there are few signs Trump is trying to get out the vote - KingGossip.com

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