search

1/30: The Enduring Value of Public Polls

January 30, 2016

By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff In this primary season the only conclusion that makes sense is that very little has made sense.  Rigorous, scientific public polls have provided a very useful road map.  As fellow pollster Gary Langer has commented: although public polls, the good and the bad, are often mixed together like champagne, cola, […]

6/2: Likely Voters: Why Later Not Now

June 2, 2014

By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff Registered voters early. Likely voters later.  Public polls serve their audience well by capturing the views of the electorate at an appropriate time and communicate precisely what group of voters they are including in their tabulations. Early in a contest, before voters have focused on the candidates or the race, […]

9/12: The Role of Public Polls

September 12, 2013

By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff This NYC primary season brought both an anticipated “poll-iferation” and an equally expected questioning of the reliability of public polls.  With the first round of 2013 citywide voting now over and primary day in our rear view mirror, let’s assess how the public polls fared.  (Helpful hint: we adhere to principles of transparency.  If […]

11/28: Mitofsky Still Teaching

November 28, 2012

By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff It’s been 6 years since our mentor, colleague, and friend’s death.   Warren Mitofsky was a clear thinker and major innovator of the public polling community.  Beyond his methodological rigor, he communicated long-lasting, yet, simple messages to the profession.  His thoughts remain vital through the 2012 election cycle. Despite this year’s successful […]

11/1 Undecided Voters in the 2012 Presidential Election

November 1, 2012

In Presidential elections some people will always vote for the Democrat and some will always vote for the Republican.  But, there’s that group of people in the middle who make up their mind as the campaign moves toward Election Day that often decides who wins.  The exact proportion of undecided voters varies from campaign to […]

8/29: Getting a Bounce?

August 29, 2012

By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff The GOP convention is (finally) off and running followed next week by the Democratic gathering.  With Obama and Romney closely matched at the start of these two quadrennial events, as they have been since Romney emerged as the presumptive GOP nominee, what should we expect poll number-wise once the final gavel […]

8/29: What About the Economy?

By Barbara Carvalho Whatever happened to this election being about the economy and only the economy? Well, the summer months ushered in a slew of back and forth arguments between the Obama and Romney campaigns which had little to do with what Romney hoped would be a referendum on President Obama and the stalled economic recovery. […]

7/11: But Wait, There’s More

July 11, 2012

By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff Are you in search of the definitive narrative for decision ’12?  Each time something BIG happens…an Obama or a Romney gaffe, the SCOTUS ruling on immigration or health care, the latest jobs numbers etc… the pundit and polling communities pounce on it as the storyline for the election. Well, chattering […]

6/27: From the Survey to the Trail

June 27, 2012

By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff Sure. Early public polls both national and state are open to the charge of not being predictive.  National polls carry the added burden of not necessarily reflecting the electoral college state-by-state vote. Now, if you don’t want to be a public poll-tracker but are interested in the ups and downs […]

5/30: Don’t Cell Out!

May 30, 2012

By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff It should be the battle cry of all pollsters and poll watchers interested in accuracy when it comes to presidential polling.  The problems of reaching cell phone only respondents are well documented.  But, measurements of the Obama-Romney horse race that rely solely on landline households do so at great peril. […]