October 10, 2024
U.S. Presidential Contest: Texas, October 2024
Trump with 7-Point Lead in Texas
Former President Donald Trump is out in front of Harris among Texas likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Trump’s support is bolstered by white voters, men, and an improved standing among Latino voters from four years ago. Harris does better than Trump among Black voters although not as well as Biden did in 2020. Harris has improved the Democrats’ support among white voters. She also leads Trump among women.
Trump (53%) leads Harris (46%) among likely voters statewide. 91% of likely voters with a candidate preference for President, including 92% of Trump’s supporters and 89% of Harris’ backers, say they strongly support their choice of candidate.
Trump (50%) and Harris (48%) are competitive among independents who are likely to vote. President Joe Biden carried independents by 6 points in 2020, according to the 2020 Presidential Exit Poll.
Trump (62%) leads Harris (37%) among white voters while Harris (80%) outpaces Trump (20%) among Black voters. Compared with 2020, Harris has more support among white voters in Texas than Biden got four years ago, but she underperforms the 90% that Biden garnered among Black voters. Harris (51%) edges Trump (46%) among Latinos. In 2020, Biden carried Latino voters by 17 points.
Trump (58%) leads Harris (40%) among men while Harris (52%) edges Trump (47%) among women.
With the exception of Baby Boomers who divide (51% for Trump to 49% for Harris), Trump leads Harris among the other generations.
Trump (61%) outpaces Harris (38%) among likely voters who plan to cast their ballot in-person. Harris (63%) leads Trump (37%) among those who plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot. Those who plan to vote at an early voting location divide (50% for Harris to 49% for Trump).
"Trump and Cruz are in the driver's seat in their respective contests, although each has a single-digit lead over their opponent," says Dr. Lee Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, "Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Allred has an outside chance of scoring an upset because he is unknown at this point to many voters, and Cruz's popularity is below 50%."
Preserving Democracy & Inflation, Top Voting Issues
When thinking about voting in November, Texas residents say the following are top of mind:
- 26% say preserving democracy is the most pressing issue
- 25% report inflation is a key motivating factor
- 21% cite immigration
- 12% of residents say the abortion issue is top of mind
- Health care (7%), crime (4%), and the war in the Middle East (4%) follow
Honesty & Trustworthiness Top Candidate Quality
When deciding their vote for President, Texas resident express the following opinions:
- 29% think honesty and trustworthiness is the most important candidate quality
- 20% say a candidate who is closest to them on the issues is most important
- 20% want a candidate who is a strong leader
- 14% desire a candidate who shares their values
- 14% think a candidate who will bring about change is the priority
- Three percent say experience is the most important candidate quality
While Harris leads Trump among likely voters who want a candidate who is honest and trustworthy, Trump leads Harris among those who value other candidate qualities.
Most Know the Candidate for Whom They Plan to Cast a Ballot
90% of likely voters say they know for which candidate they plan to vote, and they will not change their mind. Eight percent report they have a good idea of the candidate they plan to support but could change their mind before casting their ballot. Two percent have not made up their mind.
Nearly All Likely Voters in Texas Say They Will Vote for President
99% of likely voters statewide report that they will vote for President. Only 1% report they will skip the line and vote for other candidates and ballot measures.
Majority Plans to Vote at Early Voting Location
57% of likely voters say they plan to vote at an early voting location. 35% say they will vote in-person on Election Day, and 8% say they will vote by mail or by absentee ballot.
Harris Favorability Upside Down… Residents Divide About Trump
- 44% of Texas residents have a favorable opinion of Harris while 49% have an unfavorable one.
- 48% of adults statewide have a positive impression of Trump, and 47% have an unfavorable view of him.
- Democratic vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz is viewed favorably by 39% of Texans. His negative score is 40%. 21% have either never heard of Walz or are unsure how to rate him.
- Republican vice-presidential candidate J.D. Vance has a positive rating of 42%. His negative score is 39%. 19% have either never heard of Vance or are unsure how to rate him.
Cruz Leads Allred in U.S. Senate Race in Texas
51% of likely voters statewide say they support incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz for U.S. Senate. 46% support his Democratic challenger, Colin Allred. Allred (51%), though, leads Cruz (43%) among independents. 83% of likely voters with a candidate preference for U.S. Senate say they strongly support their choice of candidate.
Residents Divide About Cruz’s Favorability.. Allred with Low Name-Recognition
- Cruz is viewed favorably by 46% of Texas residents. 46% have an unfavorable opinion of him.
- 39% have a favorable opinion of Allred. 36% have an unfavorable impression of him, and 25% have either never heard of Allred or are unsure how to rate him.
Republicans with the Advantage on Generic Congressional Ballot
53% of likely voters in Texas say they plan to support the Republican running for Congress in their district, and 46% plan to back the Democratic candidate.
Most Residents Express Confidence in Election Integrity
74% of Texas residents are either confident or very confident that their state and local governments will carry out a fair and accurate election in November. 25% are either not very confident or not confident at all the election will be above board.
Biden Approval Rating Underwater
39% of Texas residents approve of the job Biden is doing in office, and a majority (55%) disapprove. Residents are more likely to strongly disapprove (46%) of how Biden is doing his job than to strongly approve (25%).
Methodology
This survey of 1,500 Texas adults was conducted October 3rd through October 7th, 2024 by the Marist Poll. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state of Texas were contacted through a multi-mode design: By phone using live interviewers, by text, or online. Results for all adults (n=1,500) are statistically significant within ±3.2 percentage points. Results for registered voters (n=1,365) are statistically significant within ±3.3 percentage points. Results for likely voters (n=1,186) are statistically significant within ±3.6 percentage points. Likely voters include registered voters who report they are definitely voting in this year’s election.