October 10, 2024
U.S. Presidential Contest: Ohio, October 2024
Trump Leads Harris By 6 Points in Ohio
Former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by 6 points among Ohio likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Trump is ahead of Harris among white voters while Harris has the advantage among Black voters. Trump, though, does not receive the support among white voters that he received in 2020 nor does Harris receive the same support among Black voters that President Joe Biden garnered in 2020. While Trump leads among men, women divide. Trump and Harris also divide support among independents who are likely to vote.
Trump (52%) leads Harris (46%) among Ohio likely voters. 88% of likely voters with a candidate preference for President strongly support their choice of candidate. Trump won Ohio by eight points (53% to 45%) against President Biden four years ago.
Independents divide (49% for Harris to 49% for Trump). According to the 2020 Presidential Exit Poll of Ohio, independents similarly divided (48% for Biden to 48% for Trump).
Trump (56%) leads Harris (43%) among white voters. In 2020, Trump carried white voters by 21 points. Among Black voters, Harris (80%) outdistances Trump (18%). However, she fails to achieve the 91% support Biden did in 2020.
Trump (56%) is ahead of Harris (42%) among men. Support divides between the two candidates (50% for Harris to 48% for Trump) among women. Trump carried men by 20 points in 2020. Biden edged out Trump by 3 points among women.
Trump receives majority support among Gen X (59%) while Harris (54%) has majority support among Baby Boomers. The Silent/Greatest Generation (50% for Harris to 49% for Trump) and GenZ/Millennials (51% for Trump to 47% for Harris) divide.
Trump (59%) has majority support among likely voters who plan to cast their ballot in-person. Harris, however, has majority support among those who plan to vote at an early voting location (52%) or by mail or absentee ballot (55%).
"Donald Trump is well-positioned, once again, to carry Ohio's 17 electoral votes, but split-ticket voting enhances Sherrod Brown's Senate re-election prospects," says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "Right now, he's carrying seven percent of Trump's backers but losing only one percent of Harris' backers to his opponent Bernie Moreno."
Inflation & Preserving Democracy Top Voting Issues in Ohio
The following issues are top of mind for Ohio residents when thinking about their vote in November:
- 32% say inflation is their priority
- 27% think preserving democracy is a key motivating factor
- 19% mention immigration
- 10% say abortion is on their mind going into November’s election
- Health care (5%), crime (4%), and the war in the Middle East (3%) follow
Honesty Key Candidate Quality
When deciding their vote for President, Ohio residents indicate these as key candidate qualities:
- 28% cite honesty and trustworthiness
- 20% select strength of leadership
- 19% believe a candidate’s position on the issues is most important
- 14% say a candidate who shares their values is most important
- 14% think a candidate who can bring about change is the most important candidate quality
- Only 4% say experience is the most important quality in a candidate
Trump leads Harris among likely voters who want a candidate who is a strong leader, someone who will bring about change, or shares their positions on the issues. Harris outperforms Trump among likely voters who want a candidate who is honest and trustworthy or shares their values.
Most Voters Know for Whom They Plan to Vote in November
88% of likely voters statewide say they know the candidate for whom they plan to vote and will not change their mind. 10% have a good idea of the candidate they plan to support but may change their mind before voting. Two percent have not made up their mind.
Most Voters Plan to Vote for President
99% of likely voters statewide say they plan to vote for President. Only 1% report they will skip the line and vote for other candidates or ballot measures.
Majority of Likely Voters Plan to Vote In-Person on Election Day
55% of likely voters say they plan to cast their ballot in-person on Election Day. 24% think they will vote at an early voting location, and 19% say they think they will vote by mail or absentee ballot.
Trump’s and Vance’s Favorability on the Upside… Majority with Unfavorable Opinion of Harris
- 50% of Ohio residents have a favorable impression of Trump while 48% have an unfavorable opinion of him. In June, Trump’s favorability was upside down (45% favorable to 51% unfavorable).
- 43% have a favorable opinion of Harris, and 53% have an unfavorable view of her.
- Republican vice-presidential candidate J.D. Vance is perceived favorably by 45% to 41% unfavorably. 14% have either never heard of Vance or are unsure how to rate him.
- 39% of residents have a favorable impression of Democratic vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz. 39% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 22% have either never heard of Walz or are unsure how to rate him.
Brown & Moreno Competitive in U.S. Senate Race in Ohio
In the race for U.S Senate in Ohio, Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown receives the support of 50% of likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Republican challenger Bernie Moreno receives 48%. Among independents, Brown has 54% to 43% for Moreno.
Among likely voters who have a candidate preference for U.S. Senate in Ohio, 75% strongly support their choice of candidate. 78% of Brown’s supporters, compared with 72% of Moreno’s backers, report a strong intensity of support for their choice of candidate.
Residents Divide About Brown’s Favorability… Plurality Views Moreno Unfavorably
- 43% of Ohio adults have a favorable opinion of Brown. 42% have an unfavorable one, and 15% have either never heard of Brown or are unsure how to rate him.
- 37% of residents statewide have a positive impression of Moreno while 44% have an unfavorable one. 19% have either never heard of Moreno or are unsure how to rate him.
Republicans with 8-Point Lead on Generic Congressional Ballot
53% of likely voters say they plan to support the Republican candidate running for Congress in their district. 45% say they will support the Democratic candidate running for Congress. Independents break 50% for the Republican candidate to 46% for the Democratic candidate.
Most Residents Confident in Ohio’s Electoral Integrity
78% of adults statewide are either very confident or confident in their state and local officials to carry out a fair and accurate election in November. 22% are not very confident or not confident at all in the integrity of the election process.
Harris’ supporters (89%) express greater confidence than Trump’s backers (71%) that November’s election will be above board.
Biden’s Approval Rating Upside Down in Ohio
39% of adults statewide approve of the job Biden is doing in office while 57% disapprove. Residents statewide are more than twice as likely to strongly disapprove (48%) of the job Biden is doing than strongly approve (20%).
Methodology
This survey of 1,620 Ohio adults was conducted October 3rd through October 7th, 2024 by the Marist Poll. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state of Ohio were contacted through a multi-mode design: By phone using live interviewers, by text, or online. Results for all adults (n=1,620) are statistically significant within ±2.9 percentage points. Results for registered voters (n=1,511) are statistically significant within ±3.0 percentage points. Results for likely voters (n=1,327) are statistically significant within ±3.2 percentage points. Likely voters include registered voters who report they are definitely voting in this year’s election.