September 26, 2024
U.S. Presidential Contest: North Carolina, September 2024
Marist North Carolina Poll
Harris & Trump Tied in North Carolina
In the battleground state of North Carolina, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are tied among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Harris outdistances Trump among Black voters. Still, Harris underperforms the support President Joe Biden received among this group in 2020. Trump leads Harris among white voters but underperforms what he received among whites four years ago.
Harris (49%) and Trump (49%) are competitive among likely voters in North Carolina. Among those who have a candidate preference for President, 91% strongly support their choice of candidate.
Harris (48%) and Trump (48%) are tied among independents who are likely to vote. Biden won independents by 4 points in 2020, according to the 2020 Presidential Exit Poll.
Trump has the advantage against Harris among those who plan to vote in-person on Election Day (61% for Trump to 38% for Harris). Harris leads Trump among those who plan to vote at an early voting location (57% for Harris to 42% for Trump). Harris (62%) is also ahead of Trump (35%) among those who say they plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot.
While Trump (59%) leads Harris (40%) among white voters, Harris is doing better than Biden did among this group in 2020. Biden received 33% of the white vote in 2020. Harris (86%) outpaces Trump (13%) among Black voters statewide but underperforms the 92% Biden achieved in 2020.
A 19-point gender gap exists with Trump (54%) leading Harris (44%) among men and Harris (54%) leading Trump (45%) among women. The gender gap has widened from 16 points four years ago.
Harris receives majority support among members of the Silent/Greatest generation. Younger generations divide.
"North Carolina, with its 16 electoral votes, is both the Harris and Trump campaigns' backup plan after the hard-fought battle over Pennsylvania," says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "North Carolina is so close that the 5 regions in the state line up now almost exactly as they did 4 years ago. It's as if the Biden years and the 2024 campaign haven’t happened."
Inflation & Preserving Democracy Top Voting Issues in North Carolina
When thinking about their vote for President, the following issues are top of mind among North Carolina adults:
- Inflation is the most pressing issue for 32%.
- Preserving democracy is the motivating issue for 28%.
- Immigration follows with 14%, down from 21% in March.
- Abortion is top of mind for 11%.
- Health care (7%), crime (4%), and the war in the Middle East (2%) follow.
Honesty & Strong Leadership are Most Important Candidate Qualities
North Carolina residents believe the following qualities are the most important in a candidate for President:
- 24% want a candidate who is honest and trustworthy.
- 23% think being a strong leader is the most important.
- 19% want a candidate who is closer to them on the issues.
- 15% desire a candidate who reflects their values.
- 14% think someone who will bring about change is the most important quality in a candidate.
- 4% value experience above other candidate qualities.
Harris leads Trump among likely voters who want a candidate who is honest and trustworthy or who shares their values. Trump is ahead among those who want a candidate who is closer to them on the issues, is a strong leader, or who can bring about change.
Most Voters Plan to Cast a Ballot for President
96% of North Carolina likely voters say they plan to vote for President. Four percent think they will skip the presidential line but will vote for other candidates and ballot measures.
Most Voters Have Selected a Candidate
84% of registered voters in North Carolina say they know for whom they plan to vote, and they will not change their mind. 12% have a good sense of who they will support but could change their mind. Three percent of voters statewide have not made up their mind. Nearly one in four independent voters say they could change their mind prior to Election Day (17%) or have not made their candidate selection (7%).
Residents Divide About Favorability of Harris & Trump… Walz & Vance with Matching Scores
- Harris’ favorable rating is 47% to 47% unfavorable.
- Trump’s score is 48% favorable to 49% unfavorable.
- Democratic vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz has a favorable rating of 42% to 40% unfavorable. 17% have either never heard of Walz or are unsure how to rate him.
- Vance also receives a favorable rating of 42%. 43% view Vance negatively, and 15% have either never heard of Vance or are unsure how to rate him.
Stein with Majority Support in North Carolina’s Race for Governor
Democrat Josh Stein (54%) has an 11-point lead against Republican Mark Robinson (43%) in North Carolina’s gubernatorial contest. One percent say they support another candidate, and 2% are undecided. In March, only one point separated Stein (49%) and Robinson (48%).
80% of likely voters with a candidate preference for North Carolina governor strongly support their choice of candidate. Stein’s backers (85%) are more committed than Robinson’s supporters (73%).
Plurality Views Stein Favorably… Robinson with Upside Down Rating in North Carolina
- 45% of residents statewide have a favorable view of Stein, and 30% have an unfavorable one. 25% have either never heard of Stein or are unsure how to rate him.
- 34% of North Carolinians have a positive opinion of Robinson compared with 48% who have a negative impression of the candidate. 18% have either never heard of Robinson or are unsure how to rate him.
Democrats and Republicans Competitive on Generic Congressional Ballot
49% of registered voters say they plan to support the Republican candidate on the ballot for Congress in their district. 48% report they plan to support the Democrat. Three percent are undecided.
More Than Seven in Ten Have Confidence in North Carolina’s Election Integrity
73% of residents statewide are either very confident or confident in their state or local government to carry out fair and accurate elections this year. 26% are not confident or not confident at all that the elections will be above board.
Plurality to Vote at Early Voting Location
46% of registered voters statewide say they plan to vote at an early voting location. 43% say they will vote in-person on Election Day, and 9% report they plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot.
Biden’s Approval Rating Underwater in North Carolina
42% of North Carolina adults approve of the job Biden is doing in office, and 54% disapprove. 45% of residents statewide strongly disapprove of how Biden is performing in office, and 22% strongly approve.
Methodology
This survey of 1,605 North Carolina adults was conducted September 19th through September 24th, 2024 by the Marist Poll. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state of North Carolina were contacted through a multi-mode design: By phone using live interviewers, by text, or online. Results for all adults (n=1,605) are statistically significant within ±3.4 percentage points. Results for registered voters (n=1,507) are statistically significant within ±3.5 percentage points. Results for likely voters (n=1,348) are statistically significant within ±3.7 percentage points. Likely voters include registered voters who report they are definitely voting in this year’s election.