September 19, 2024
U.S. Presidential Contest in Michigan, September 2024
Harris +5 Over Trump in Michigan
In the critical electoral state of Michigan, Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 5 points among likely voters statewide, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Harris and Trump are closely matched among independents and white voters. Among whites, Trump underperforms the support he received from this voting group in 2020. Similarly, while Harris leads Trump among Black voters, she underperforms what President Joe Biden did among Blacks four years ago.
Harris (52%) is ahead of Trump (47%) among Michigan likely voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Among those with a candidate preference for President, 86% say they strongly support their choice of candidate.
Harris (49%) and Trump (47%) are competitive among independents who are likely to vote. According to the 2020 Exit Polls, President Joe Biden carried this voting group by 6 points.
Trump (57%) leads Harris (41%) among likely voters who plan to vote on Election Day and among those who plan to vote at an early voting location (57% for Trump to 40% for Harris). Harris (70%) outpaces Trump (29%) among those who plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot.
Trump (50%) and Harris (48%) are well-matched among white voters, and Trump underperforms what he received among these voters in 2020 (55%). Harris (77%) has a commanding lead over Trump (21%) among Black voters. However, she does not match the support that Biden received in 2020 (92%).
Harris receives majority support among most generations. The exception is Gen X where voters divide (50% for Trump to 48% for Harris).
A 20-point gender gap exists. Trump (52%) is ahead of Harris (47%) among men while Harris (56%) leads Trump (41%) among women. In 2020, Trump carried men by 10 points.
"Of the three so called Blue Wall states, Michigan is the one where there is a difference between Harris and Trump," says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "The Michigan vote is being driven by Trump's high negatives with Vance certainly providing no help for the GOP ticket."
Preserving Democracy & Inflation Top Voting Issues for Michigan Adults
When thinking about voting in November, the following issues are top of mind for Michigan residents:
- Preserving democracy is the top voting issue for 30% of residents.
- Inflation follows closely with 29%.
- Immigration is the top issue for 15% of Michigan adults.
- Abortion is the driving issue for 10%, followed by health care (8%), the war in the Middle East (5%), and crime (3%).
Honesty, Issue Positions, & Strength of Leadership are Key Candidate Qualities
When asked which quality is most important in a presidential candidate, Michigan residents weigh in with the following:
- 28% cite honesty and trustworthiness.
- A candidate’s position on the issues matters most for 20%.
- Being a strong leader is most important for 19%.
- A candidate who reflects their values is the priority for 14%.
- A candidate who will bring about change is most important for 13%.
- Experience rounds out the list with 4%.
Trump bests Harris in the presidential matchup among those who are concerned about a candidate’s position on the issues, strength of leadership, or the ability to bring about change. Harris does better than Trump among voters who desire honesty and trustworthiness in a candidate or shared values.
Most Voters Know for Whom They Plan to Vote
81% of Michigan voters report they already know who they will support in November’s election, and nothing will change their mind. 14% say they have a good idea who they will support but could change their mind. Five percent report they have not made up their minds yet. 30% of independents say they either haven’t made up their mind or could alter their decision before they cast their ballot.
Trump, & Vance with Upside Down Favorable Ratings… Divide about Harris, But Plurality Views Walz Favorably
- Trump’s favorable rating (44%) among Michiganders is underwater. 53% have a negative view of Trump.
- Republican vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance receives the lowest favorable rating among the candidates (34%). He is viewed unfavorably by 46% of residents statewide. 20% have either never heard of Vance or are unsure how to rate him.
- Harris’ favorable rating among Michigan adults is 48%. 47% view her unfavorably.
- Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz is viewed favorably by 42% of Michiganders. 34% have a negative impression of him, and 24% have either never heard of Walz or are unsure how to rate him.
Slotkin Leads Rogers in U.S. Senate Race in Michigan
Democrat Elissa Slotkin (52%) is ahead of Republican Mike Rogers (45%) among Michigan likely voters in the race for U.S. Senate. 69% of likely voters with a candidate preference for U.S. Senate strongly support their choice of candidate. Slotkin’s intensity of support (76%) exceeds that of Rogers (61%).
Slotkin Viewed Favorably by Plurality… Rogers’ Favorable Rating Upside Down
- 42% of adults statewide have a favorable view of Slotkin to 32% unfavorable. 27% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate Slotkin.
- Rogers’ favorable rating is 32% among Michiganders. 38% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 30% have either never heard of Rogers or are unsure how to rate him.
Registered Voters Divide on General Congressional Ballot
49% of registered voters statewide say they plan to vote for the Republican candidate on the ballot for Congress in their district while 49% expect to support the Democrat running for office. One percent is unsure.
Seven in Ten Residents Express Confidence in Election Integrity
70% of Michigan residents are very confident or confident that their state and local officials will run a fair and accurate election in November. 30% are not very confident or not confident at all that a fair election will take place.
Majority of Voters Plan to Cast Ballot In-Person
53% of registered voters say they will vote in-person on Election Day. 36% plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot, and 9% say they will vote at an early voting location.
Biden’s Approval Rating Underwater at 42% in Michigan
Biden’s job approval rating is upside down, with 42% of Michigan residents saying they approve of the job he is doing in office and 53% saying they disapprove. 22% of residents strongly approve of Biden’s job performance while nearly twice that proportion (43%) strongly disapprove.
Methodology
This survey of 1,354 Michigan adults was conducted September 12th through September 17th, 2024 by the Marist Poll. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state of Michigan were contacted through a multi-mode design: By phone using live interviewers, by text, or online. Results for all adults (n=1,354) are statistically significant within ±3.1 percentage points. Results for registered voters (n=1,282) are statistically significant within ±3.2 percentage points. Results for likely voters (n=1,138) are statistically significant within ±3.4 percentage points. Likely voters include registered voters who report they are definitely voting in this year’s election.