October 10, 2024
U.S. Presidential Contest: Florida, October 2024
Trump Leads Harris By 4 Points in Florida
In Florida, 4 points separate former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential contest among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Harris, though, leads Trump among independents. She also has the advantage against Trump among Black voters, but she is not receiving nearly the same support as President Joe Biden did in 2020. Trump leads Harris among white voters and Latinos. While Trump now leads by a wide margin among Latinos, he fails to reach the support he garnered among white voters four years ago. There is a gender gap in Florida although it is smaller than it is nationally. Harris does better among women while Trump leads among men.
Trump (51%) is 4 points over Harris (47%) among likely voters in Florida. 88% of likely voters with a candidate preference for President strongly support their choice of candidate.
Harris (55%) leads Trump (41%) among independents. According to the 2020 Presidential Exit Poll of Florida, Biden carried this group by 11 points.
Trump (53%) is ahead of Harris (45%) among white voters but underperforms the 62% he received among this group in 2020. Trump (58%) also leads Harris (40%) among Latino voters. Here, he does better than the 46% he received four years ago. Harris (76%) has a wide lead over Trump (24%) among Black voters, though she comes up short of the 89% Biden received in 2020.
A 15-point gender gap exists. Trump (55%) leads Harris (43%) among men while 3 points separate Harris (51%) and Trump (48%) among women. A 12-point gender gap existed in 2020.
Trump receives majority support among Gen X (56%) and edges Harris among GenZ/Millennials (52% to 47%). Harris has a slight advantage among Baby Boomers (52%). The Silent/Greatest Generation divide (50% for Harris to 48% for Trump).
Trump (64%) has the advantage against Harris (35%) among likely voters who plan to vote in-person. Trump (55%) also leads Harris (45%) among those who plan to cast their ballot at an early voting location. Harris (64%) outpaces Trump (34%) among those who plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot.
"Trump leads Harris in the contest for Florida's 30 electoral votes although the state is competitive," says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "The battle for the U.S. Senate seat between Scott and Mucarsel-Powell is neck-and-neck. Florida's voters view Scott's challenger favorably, but a large proportion need to still form an opinion of her. And that will determine the winner."
Inflation & Preserving Democracy Top Issues in Presidential Election
When thinking about voting in November, Florida residents say the following issues are top of mind:
- 29% cite inflation
- 25% choose preserving democracy
- 18% say immigration is front and center
- 13% mention abortion
- Eight percent think health care is a driving issue
- The war in the Middle East (4%) and crime (3%) follow
Strength of Leadership & Honesty are Key Candidate Qualities
When thinking about voting in November, Florida residents weigh in on the most important candidate qualities:
- 25% want a candidate who is a strong leader
- 25% believe a candidate who is honest and trustworthy is the most important
- 18% want a candidate who is closest to them on the issues
- 15% desire a candidate who shares their values
- 12% think a candidate who can bring about change is essential
- 4% want a candidate with experience
Trump bests Harris among residents who value a strong leader, want a candidate who shares their positions on the issues, or a candidate who will bring about change. Harris does better against Trump among those who want a candidate who is honest and trustworthy or who shares their values.
Most Voters Plan to Cast a Ballot for President
97% of likely voters in Florida plan to vote for President. Three percent say they will skip the presidential line but will vote for other candidates and ballot measures. One percent say they do not plan to vote.
Most Voters Set on Presidential Candidate and Will Not Change Mind
90% of Florida likely voters say they know for whom they plan to vote and will not change their mind. Eight percent have a good idea of the candidate for whom they will support but could have second thoughts before they vote. Two percent have not selected a candidate for whom to vote.
Harris’ backers (93%) are more likely than Trump supporters (89%) to say they won’t change their mind before voting.
Plurality of Florida Likely Voters Plan to Head to the Polls on Election Day
38% of likely voters statewide say they plan to vote in-person on Election Day. 31% say they will cast their ballot at an early voting location, and 30% plan to vote or by mail or absentee ballot.
Residents Divide About Trump Favorability… Harris Favorability Upside Down
- 49% of adults statewide have a favorable opinion of Trump. 47% have an unfavorable opinion of him.
- Harris receives a favorable rating of 46% compared with 50% unfavorable.
- Republican vice-presidential candidate J.D. Vance is viewed favorably by 44% of adults statewide. 39% have an unfavorable view of Vance, and 17% have either never heard of Vance or are unsure how to rate him.
- 41% of Florida residents have a favorable impression of Democratic vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz. 41% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 18% have either never heard of Walz or are unsure how to rate him.
Scott & Mucarsel-Powell Competitive in U.S. Senate Race
In the race for U.S. Senate in Florida, two points separate Republican incumbent Rick Scott (50%) and his Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (48%) among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. 76% of likely voters with a candidate preference for Senate say they strongly support their choice of candidate.
Florida Residents Divide About Scott’s Favorability… Mucarsel-Powell with Low Name Recognition
- 44% of residents have a favorable opinion of Scott while 45% have an unfavorable one. 11% have either never heard of Scott or are unsure how to rate him.
- 37% have a positive impression of Mucarsel-Powell. 23% have a negative view of her. A notable 40% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate Mucarsel-Powell.
GOP with Lead on Generic Congressional Ballot
52% of likely voters in Florida say they plan to vote for the Republican candidate on the ballot running for Congress in their district. 47% expect to cast their ballot for the Democratic candidate. Independents, however, break for the Democratic candidate (51%) over the Republican (48%) on the ballot.
Most Residents Think Florida Will Carry Out a Fair Election
79% of Floridians are either very confident or confident that their state and local officials will carry out a fair and accurate election. 21% are not very confident or not confident at all in the state’s electoral integrity.
Biden Approval Ratings Upside Down in Florida
42% of Florida residents approve of the job Biden is doing in office. 53% disapprove. Floridians are more likely to strongly disapprove of how Biden is doing his job (44%) than to strongly approve (24%).
Methodology
This survey of 1,510 Florida adults was conducted October 3rd through October 7th, 2024 by the Marist Poll. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state of Florida were contacted through a multi-mode design: By phone using live interviewers, by text, or online. Results for all adults (n=1,510) are statistically significant within ±3.3 percentage points. Results for registered voters (n=1,410) are statistically significant within ±3.4 percentage points. Results for likely voters (n=1,257) are statistically significant within ±3.6 percentage points. Likely voters include registered voters who report they are definitely voting in this year’s election.