September 26, 2024
U.S. Presidential Contest: Arizona, September 2024
Marist Arizona Poll
Trump +1 Point Against Harris in Arizona
In Arizona, one point separates former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris among likely voters statewide, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Harris edges Trump among independents. Trump, however, is +3 points against Harris among white voters. The two candidates are competitive among Latinos in Arizona, a group President Joe Biden carried by more than 20 points in 2020.
Trump receives the support of 50% of Arizona likely voters to 49% for Harris. Most voters with a candidate preference for President (90%) strongly support their choice of candidate.
Harris (51%) edges Trump (47%) among independents who are likely to vote. According to the 2020 Presidential Exit Poll, President Joe Biden carried independents by 9 points (53% for Biden to 44% for Trump) four years ago.
Trump (51%) edges Harris (48%) among white voters, a group he carried by 6 points in 2020. Trump (51%) and Harris (49%) are competitive among Latinos. Harris significantly underperforms Biden’s 2020 support among this group. Biden carried Latinos by 24 points in 2020.
Trump receives majority support among GenX (58%) and the Silent/Greatest Generation (54%). Harris has majority support among GenZ/Millennials (52%) and Baby Boomers (54%).
The gender gap in Arizona has widened. Harris has the support of 52% of women to 47% for Trump. Trump (53%) leads Harris (46%) among men. In 2020, a 5-point gender gap existed.
Among those who plan to vote in-person on Election Day, Trump (63%) leads Harris (36%). Trump (64%) is also ahead of Harris (34%) among voters who plan to cast their ballot at an early voting location. Harris (58%), though, has the advantage against Trump (41%) among likely voters who plan to vote by mail or by absentee ballot.
"Arizona's 11 electoral votes are up for grabs, but the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate has a double-digit lead," says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "Voters in the state, like elsewhere, are willing to split their ticket this time unlike the straight party voting that occurred in 2016 and 2020."
Preserving Democracy, & Inflation Top Voting Issues for Arizona Adults
When thinking about voting in November, the following issues are top of mind for Arizona residents:
- Preserving democracy is the top voting issue for 27% of Arizona residents.
- Inflation follows with 26%.
- Immigration is the top issue for 21% of residents statewide.
- Abortion is the motivating issue for 14% of Arizona adults.
- Health care (5%), crime (3%), and the war in the Middle East (3%) follow.
Honesty, Strength of Leadership, & Positions on the Issues are Top Candidate Qualities
When asked which quality is most important in a presidential candidate, Arizona residents report:
- Honesty and trustworthiness is the most important quality for 26%.
- 22% believe a strong leader is crucial.
- 19% report a candidate who is closest to them on the issues matters most.
- A candidate who shares their values is the priority for 15%.
- 12% desire a candidate who will bring about change.
- 3% value experience in a candidate above all else.
Harris leads Trump among voters who want a candidate who shares their values or a candidate who is honest and trustworthy. Trump is ahead of Harris among voters who want a strong leader, who will bring about change, or shares their positions on the issues.
Most Voters Plan to Cast a Ballot for President
97% of likely voters statewide plan to vote for President. Three percent expect to vote but say they will skip the presidential line and vote for other candidates and ballot measures.
Most Voters Know for Whom They Plan to Vote
81% of Arizona voters say they know for whom they will vote, and nothing will change their mind. 14% have a good idea of the candidate they will support but could change their mind before Election Day. Five percent report they have not made up their mind. One in four independents say they have not made a candidate selection (10%) or could change their mind before Election Day (15%).
Residents Divide about Harris and Trump Favorability
- Kamala Harris is viewed favorably by 47% of Arizona residents, and 48% have an unfavorable opinion of her.
- Trump’s favorable rating is 47%. His negative score is 49%.
- Democratic vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz is viewed favorably by 41% of Arizona residents. 38% have a negative view of him, and 21% have either never heard of Walz or are unsure how to rate him.
- Republican vice-presidential candidate J.D. Vance is viewed favorably by 40%. 42% have an unfavorable impression of him, and 19% have either never heard of Vance or are unsure how to rate him.
Gallego Leads Lake by 10 Points in U.S. Senate Race in Arizona
Democrat Ruben Gallego (54%) has a 10-point lead against Republican Kari Lake (44%) among likely voters statewide in the race for U.S. Senate in Arizona. Independents break for Gallego by a wide margin (64% for Gallego to 32% for Lake). 80% of likely voters with a candidate preference for Senate strongly support their choice of candidate.
Plurality Views Gallego Favorably… Lake’s Favorable Rating Upside Down in the Grand Canyon State
- Gallego boasts an above water favorability rating among Arizona residents (47% favorable to 35% unfavorable). 17% have either never heard of Gallego or are unsure how to rate him.
- Lake’s favorability is underwater (39% favorable to 51% unfavorable). 10% of Arizona residents have either never heard of Lake or are unsure how to rate her.
Republicans Edge Democrats on Generic Congressional Ballot
Republicans (50%) have a slight edge over Democrats (48%) among registered voters on the generic congressional ballot question.
More Than Two in Three Residents Confident in the Integrity of Arizona Elections
67% of Arizona residents are very confident or confident that Arizona will run fair and accurate elections this year. However, 32% are not very confident or not confident at all that this will be the case.
Biden’s Approval Rating Upside Down in Arizona
41% of Arizona residents approve of the job President Biden is doing in office. 54% disapprove. 23% of residents statewide strongly approve of the job Biden is doing in office while nearly twice as many (45%) strongly disapprove.
Methodology
This survey of 1,524 Arizona adults was conducted September 19th through September 24th, 2024 by the Marist Poll. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state of Arizona were contacted through a multi-mode design: By phone using live interviewers, by text, or online. Results for all adults (n=1,524) are statistically significant within ±3.5 percentage points. Results for registered voters (n=1,416 are statistically significant within ±3.6 percentage points. Results for likely voters (n=1,264) are statistically significant within ±3.8 percentage points. Likely voters include registered voters who report they are definitely voting in this year’s election.