The U.S. Presidential Contest, October 16, 2024

Harris +5 Points Against Trump Nationally

In the presidential contest, Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by five points among likely voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. The race gets closer, however, among registered voters nationally. Here, three points separate the two candidates.

U.S. Presidential Contest Nationally
In November´s election for president, are you supporting: [If undecided: If you had to decide today, are you leaning more towards]:
Marist Poll Likely Voters. Interviews conducted October 8th through October 10th, 2024, n=1,401 MOE +/- 3.9 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
  • Harris (52%) leads Trump (47%) among likely voters nationally, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Earlier this month, two points separated Harris (50%) and Trump (48%) among likely voters.

  • The contest is tighter among registered voters. Among the general electorate, Harris receives 51% to 48% for Trump. In early October, the same margin separated Harris (50%) and Trump (47%) among the broader electorate.

  • Trump (54%) leads Harris (44%) among independents who are likely to vote, widening the 4-point edge Trump (50%) had against Harris (46%) previously.

  • Trump (53%) leads Harris (47%) among men who are likely to vote while Harris (57%) has the advantage over Trump (42%) among women.

  • While members of Gen X divide (51% for Harris to 48% for Trump), Harris has majority support among GenZ/Millennials (53%) and among Baby Boomers/the Silent-Greatest Generations (55%).

"There are two things to keep an eye on in the closing weeks of the presidential contest. First, when you look at those who are likely to vote, Harris does better. So higher turnout favors her," says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "Second, don't overlook that the gender gap, which is expected to be unusually high, cuts both ways. Trump carries men, and Harris carries women."

Trump Favorable Rating Upside Down… Divide About Harris

  • 44% of adults nationally have a favorable impression of Trump while 49% have an unfavorable one.
  • 45% of residents have a favorable opinion of Harris compared with 46% who have a negative impression of her.

Nearly Half of Voters Plan to Vote on Election Day

47% of likely voters nationally say they plan to vote in-person on Election Day. 29% report they will cast their ballot at an early voting location, and 24% think they will vote by mail or absentee ballot.

Majority Disapprove of Biden’s Job Performance

While 40% of Americans approve of the job President Joe Biden is doing in office, 53% disapprove. Americans are nearly twice as likely to strongly disapprove of how Biden is doing his job (41%) than to strongly approve (22%).