The 2024 Presidential Election

NPR/PBS News/Marist National Poll

Biden and Trump Tied Nationally

With the first presidential debate a little more than a week away, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are tied among registered voters nationally including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Among those who say they definitely plan to vote in November, Trump is +1 percentage point over Biden. While Biden has improved his standing among independents, Trump has widened his advantage among white voters. In a multi-candidate field, only one percentage point separates Biden and Trump. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives the support of more than one in ten registered voters. Support for Cornel West, Jill Stein, and Chase Oliver is in low single digits.

The 2024 Presidential Contest
If November's general election for president were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are: [If undecided: If you had to decide today, are you leaning more towards]:
Source: NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll Registered Voters. Interviews conducted June 10th through June 12th, 2024, n=1,184 MOE +/- 3.8 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
  • Biden (49%) and Trump (49%) are tied among registered voters nationally. In late May, Biden (50%) was +2 percentage points against Trump (48%). Among those who say they definitely plan to vote in November, Trump now receives 50% to 49% for Biden.

  • Biden (50%) has made inroads against Trump (48%) among independents. Biden (42%) previously trailed Trump (54%) among this voting group. However, Trump (48%) has the edge against Biden (41%) among those who have an unfavorable opinion of both candidates.

  • Among white voters, Trump (55%) is +12 percentage points over Biden (43%), doubling the six-percentage point edge he held in May. Among non-white voters, Biden (58%) leads Trump (40%) by 18 percentage points, widening his previous 11-percentage point advantage among this group.

  • Biden (50%) and Trump (50%) are tied among voters under the age of 45. Trump (49%) is +1 percentage point over Biden (48%) among voters 45 or older.

  • In a multi-candidate field, Trump receives the support of 42% of registered voters nationally to 41% for Biden. Kennedy has 11% to 3% for West, 1% for Stein, and 1% for Oliver. Kennedy pulls similar proportions of support from Biden and Trump supporters. However, West, Stein, and Oliver pull a combined 7% from Biden. Among Trump supporters, only Oliver receives 1%.

"Although the topline results remain largely the same, there are interesting developments under the hood," says Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "Since Trump's guilty verdict in the New York hush money trial, some familiar electoral patterns have re-emerged. Biden’s standing has improved among independent and non-white voters, and Trump has secured greater support among white voters."

Trump vs. Biden on the Issues

On the candidate who would better handle important issues facing the nation:

  • A majority of Americans say Trump (54%), rather than Biden (45%), would better tackle the economy.
  • Trump (54%) is also viewed as stronger than Biden (44%) on the issue of immigration.
  • A majority think Biden (54%), not Trump (42%), would better handle the abortion issue.
  • Biden (52%) bests Trump (46%) on who would better deal with preserving democracy.
  • Americans divide about whether Trump (50%) or Biden (49%) would better handle the United States’ role on the world stage.

Biden (50%) also edges Trump (46%) on the question of which candidate cares more about the average person.

Inflation is Key Voting Issue for Plurality of Americans

Three in ten Americans (30%) say, when thinking about November’s election, inflation is top of mind. Preserving democracy (29%) and immigration (18%) follow. Eight percent mention healthcare while the same proportion (8%) say abortion is a motivator. Crime is top of mind for 6% of Americans.

Inflation has become a more prominent issue for Americans. In May, preserving democracy (29%) topped the list of issues followed by inflation (24%) and immigration (22%). Abortion, healthcare, and crime each received 8%.

Majority of Americans Not Satisfied with the Major Party Candidates

Fifty-five percent of Americans are not satisfied or not satisfied at all with the major party candidates for president. 42% are either very satisfied or satisfied with the Republican and Democrat on the ballot. While Trump supporters divide (50% satisfied to 49% not satisfied), a majority of Biden supporters (58%) are either not very satisfied or not satisfied at all with the candidate choices offered by the major parties.

About two in three Americans (66%) have decided on the candidate for whom they plan to vote. One in four (25%) has a good idea of their choice of candidate but could change their mind. Nine percent have not made up their mind.

Biden and Trump with Upside Down Favorable Ratings

A majority of Americans (53%) have an unfavorable opinion of Biden while 41% have a favorable one. Biden’s job approval rating is identical to his favorable rating (53% disapprove to 41% approve). 43% of Americans strongly disapprove of how Biden is doing his job while 22% strongly approve. Among those voters who just disapprove of the job Biden is doing as president (10%), 38% intend to support him in November.

Like Biden, Trump’s favorable rating is underwater. A majority of Americans (53%) have a negative impression of Trump, and 42% have a positive view of him.

Jail Time for Trump?

In the aftermath of Trump’s conviction in his New York hush money trial, a majority of Americans (51%) think Trump should definitely or probably serve time in prison for his crimes. This includes 31% of Americans who think the former president should definitely serve time in jail. 47% believe Trump should definitely or probably not serve jail time.

A notable 13% of Republicans think Trump definitely or probably should be incarcerated. A similar 14% of Democrats think he definitely or probably should not.

Most Americans will Follow the Biden-Trump Debate

When Biden and Trump square off in next week’s presidential debate, 61% of Americans say they will watch all or most of the debate. 24% report they will not watch the debate but will pay close attention to the news coverage of the event. 14% will not watch or pay attention to the debate.

Independents (56%) are less likely than Republicans (70%) or Democrats (67%) to say they will watch the presidential debate.

Most Americans Say “No” to the Political Spotlight

More than three in four Americans (78%) say they would not consider running for political office. 19% say they would entertain the possibility. Three percent say they have run in the past or currently hold public office.

Nearly Seven in Ten Americans Perceive U.S. to Be One of the Best Countries in the World

Sixty-eight percent of Americans say, in comparison to other countries, the United States is one of the greatest countries in the world. 26% think the U.S. is no better nor worse than other countries. Six percent report the U.S is one of the worst countries in the world.

Proud to Display the American Flag?

Nearly three in four Americans (74%) are either very proud or proud to display an American flag at their home. 16% are neither proud nor not proud, and 10% are not very proud or not proud at all. Republicans (90%) are more likely than independents (72%) and Democrats (67%) to express a degree of pride in displaying the Stars and Stripes in their home.

Lackluster Trust in Public Opinion Polls

Many Americans lack confidence in public opinion polls. 38% of Americans say they have a great deal or good amount of trust in public opinion polls. 61% have not very much or no confidence at all in polls.

Democrats (47%) are more likely than Republicans (34%) and independents (30%) to express some trust in surveys.