The 2024 Presidential Contest

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist National Poll

Biden and Trump Competitive in Potential 2024 Matchup… Biden Benefits in Three-Way Contest with RFK Jr.

In a potential presidential re-match, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump remain competitive with Biden scoring just three points more among registered voters nationally. However, when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. factors into the equation, Biden opens up a 7-percentage point lead over Trump among the national electorate. Kennedy’s presence erodes Trump’s lead among independents and cuts into his support among Republicans. Trump’s loss among his base is double the loss Biden experiences among Democrats.

Hypothetical Three-Way Presidential Contest
If the 2024 election for president were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:
Source: NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll National Registered Voters. Interviews conducted October 11th, 2023, n=1,218 MOE +/- 3.9 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
  • Biden (49%) and Trump (46%) are well-matched among registered voters nationally in a hypothetical 2024 contest. This is little changed from earlier this month when 2 percentage points separated Biden (49%) and Trump (47%).

  • Partisan allegiances are strong. Among independents, though, Trump (49%) is ahead of Biden (43%) by 6 percentage points.

  • In a three-way contest with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. running as an independent, Biden opens up a 7-point lead over Trump. 44% of registered voters support Biden. 37% back Trump, and 16% are for Kennedy.

  • Kennedy’s presence in the contest makes the race competitive among independents who break 34% for Trump, 33% for Biden, and 29% for Kennedy.

  • With Kennedy in the race, Biden’s support dips 5 percentage points among Democrats while Trump loses 10 points among Republicans.

“Although it’s always tricky to assess the impact of a third-party candidate, right now Kennedy alters the equation in Biden’s favor,” says Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “What this does speak to, however, is that about one in six voters are looking for another option especially independents.”