August 6, 2024
The 2024 Presidential Contest (August 2024)
NPR/PBS News/Marist National Poll
Harris Edges Trump in Two-Way and Multi-Candidate Contests
In the 2024 presidential contest, Vice President Kamala Harris edges former President Donald Trump by 3 percentage points in a head-to-head matchup among registered voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. This marks a 4-point shift from late last month when Trump was +1 percentage point against Harris just after President Biden’s withdrawal from the race. Harris has made inroads among independents, Black voters, white voters with a college degree, women, and voters 35 years of age or older. Harris maintains her edge in the multi-candidate field, which includes Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, Cornel West, and Chase Oliver.
Harris receives 51% to 48% for Trump in a two-way contest among registered voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Two percent are undecided.
Among independents, Harris receives 53% to 44% for Trump. Three percent of independents are undecided.
In a multicandidate field, Harris (48%) is +3 percentage points against Trump (45%) among registered voters nationally, including leaners. Kennedy has the support of 5%, marking his lowest in the contest. Stein receives 1% while West and Oliver garner less than 1% each.
Regardless of whom they support, registered voters divide (48% to 48%) as to who they think will win the presidential election. Trump previously had a 20-percentage point advantage over Biden on this question. 52% of independents currently believe Harris will be victorious.
47% of Americans are either very satisfied or satisfied with the two major party candidates for president. 50%, including 65% of independents, are either not very satisfied or not satisfied at all with their choice of presidential candidates. When asked earlier in the campaign between Biden and Trump, 42% were satisfied and 55% were dissatisfied.
"For months, comments on the presidential race typically included the phrase, ‘baked in.’ That’s no longer the case," says Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "Democrats have renewed enthusiasm and confidence with Harris at the top of the ticket, and the new matchup has ignited interest in the contest on both sides."
Harris Bests Trump on Abortion Issue and Preserving Democracy… Trump Still Leads on Immigration & Economy, But Harris Narrows Biden’s Gap
- 56% of Americans think Harris, not Trump (41%), would better handle the abortion issue.
- 53% say Harris is better equipped to handle the preservation of democracy. 46% have this view of Trump.
- 52% of residents nationally say Trump is stronger than Harris (46%) on immigration.
- 51% think Trump, not Harris (47%), would better address the war in the Middle East.
- 51% of Americans think Trump, not Harris (48%), would better handle the economy.
- Americans divide about whether Harris (50%) or Trump (49%) would better handle the United States’ role on the world stage.
Honesty & Trustworthiness Most Valued in a Presidential Candidate
- 27% of Americans say honesty and trustworthiness is the most important quality in a presidential candidate, and they support Harris 75% to 23% for Trump.
- Being a strong leader receives 20%, and they back Trump 78% to 19% for Harris.
- Having a similar stance on the issues garners 20%.
- 16% of Americans say having shared values is the most important quality in a candidate.
- 13% think the ability to bring about change is the priority in a candidate.
- Three percent say experience is the most important candidate quality.
Dems & Dem-leaning Indies Divide about Harris’ Policy Direction
- 48% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents think Harris should continue President Biden’s policies. 49% think Harris should take the country in a new direction.
- While Democrats divide, a majority of Democratic-leaning independents (54%) say Harris should forge a new policy path.
Dems & GOP Competitive in Generic Congressional Contest
- 47% of registered voters say they plan to support the Democratic candidate on the ballot in their district. 45% say they will support the Republican candidate. One percent supports another party’s candidate. Six percent are unsure.
- Among independent voters, 45% expect to support the Democrat. 39% plan to back the Republican. 15% are unsure.
Biden’s Approval Rating Highest in More Than a Year…. Americans Support SCOTUS Reform
- 46% of Americans approve of President Joe Biden’s job performance, matching Biden’s score in February of 2023. 51% disapprove of his job performance.
- 26% of Americans strongly approve of the job Biden is doing while 43% strongly disapprove.
- 65% of Americans think Supreme Court justices should serve a limited time while 34%, including 55% of Republicans, say they should be permitted to serve for as long as they want.