The 2024 Elections in Ohio

Marist Ohio Poll

Trump Leads Biden by 7 Points, Brown up by 5 Points Over Moreno

In Ohio, a state that former President Donald Trump won by about eight percentage points in 2020, Trump leads Biden by seven percentage points among registered voters in a multi-candidate field. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives five points and is the only third-party candidate who garners more than one percent. Biden’s support among Black voters has slipped from 2020, but Biden has cut into Trump’s advantage among white voters. In the race for U.S. Senate, Incumbent Sherrod Brown bests his challenger by 5 percentage points.

The Ohio Presidential Contest
In November´s election for president are you supporting: [If undecided: If you had to decide today, are you leaning more towards]:
Source: Marist Poll Ohio Registered Voters. Interviews conducted June 3rd through June 6th, 2024, n=1,137 MOE +/- 3.6 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
  • Trump (48%) leads Biden (41%) by seven percentage points among Ohio registered voters including those who are leaning toward a candidate. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. garners 5%. Jill Stein and Chase Oliver each gets 1%. Support for Cornel West is less than 1%. Among those who say they will definitely vote, Trump (49%) leads Biden (43%) by six percentage points.

  • Independent voters in Ohio break for Trump, 43% for Trump to 37% for Biden and 7% for Kennedy. In the 2020 exit poll, Biden (48%) and Trump (48%) split support among independents.

  • Among those in Ohio with an unfavorable impression of both Trump and Biden, Trump (31%) has a 13-percentage point lead over Biden (18%) and Kennedy (18%).

  • Biden, however, has narrowed Trump’s advantage in 2020 among white voters. Trump (52%) has a 14-percentage point advantage among white voters over Biden (38%). Trump carried white voters by 21 percentage points in 2020. Among Blacks voters, Biden (57%) is up by 32 percentage points. Trump receives 25% to 12% for Kennedy. Biden overwhelmingly carried Blacks by 83 percentage points in 2020.

  • Among voters under the age of 35, Trump receives 46% to 37% for Biden and 12% for Kennedy.

"In a departure from national voting patterns from 2016 and 2020, Ohio voters are now poised to split their tickets between president and senate," says Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "The Buckeye State's electoral votes are likely to go to Trump while Ohioans are prepared to return Democrat Brown to the U.S. Senate."

Ohio Residents Perceive Better Times During Trump Administration

Trump’s lead in Ohio is due in no small measure to the fact that 59% of residents believe they and their families were “better off” while Trump was president including 13% of Democrats. 39% think their family is doing better since Biden took office which includes 6% of Republicans.

Ohio residents also think the country was better off while Trump was in office (58%) rather than the Biden Administration (41%). Again, a notable proportion of Democrats (14%) say the country was in better shape when Trump was in office compared with 6% of Republicans who believe the country was doing better under Biden.

Brown Edges Moreno by 5-Percentage Points in U.S. Senate Race

In the contest for U.S. Senate, 50% of registered voters statewide, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, support Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown. 45% back Bernie Moreno, his Republican challenger. Among independents, Brown (53%) leads Moreno (37%) by 16-percentage points. Brown receives support from 10% of voters who plan to vote for Trump while Moreno receives only 2% of Biden backers.

Plurality Views Brown Favorably… Moreno with Low Name Recognition

More than four in ten Ohio residents (43%) have a favorable opinion of Sherrod Brown. 32% have an unfavorable view of him, and 24% have either never heard of Brown or are unsure how to rate him. There is less consensus among views of Moreno. 28% have a positive impression of the candidate, 33% have a negative one, and 39% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate Moreno.

Most Ohio Voters Plan to Vote the Presidential Line

More than nine in ten registered voters in Ohio (92%) say they will vote for President. Six percent plan to vote in the 2024 general election, but skip the line for President, and 2% do not plan on voting.

Nearly Seven in Ten Know for Whom They Will Vote for President

Among registered voters in the Buckeye State, 68% say they already know the presidential candidate for whom they will vote in November. 20% support a candidate but say they could still change their mind, and 11% have not made up their mind.

Trump Viewed More Favorably in Ohio Than Biden

While Trump and Biden both have upside down favorable ratings, Trump fares better than Biden. 45% of Ohio residents have a favorable opinion of Trump, and 51% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Only 36% have a favorable impression of Biden, and 59% have an unfavorable opinion of him.

Biden’s Approval Rating Underwater in Ohio

Biden’s job approval rating mirrors his favorability. 36% of residents statewide approve of the job Biden is doing in office while 59% disapprove. 18% of residents strongly approve of the job Biden is doing, and 48% strongly disapprove. Opinions of Biden’s job performance are nearly identical to what they were in October of 2022 when 37% approved and 57% disapproved.

Plurality Agrees with Trump Conviction

More than four in ten adults statewide (45%) agree with the verdict in Trump’s hush money trial in New York and think the former president did something illegal. 29% say Trump did something unethical but not illegal, and 24% believe Trump did nothing wrong.

Among Republicans, nearly half (49%) do not think Trump did anything wrong. 40% say he did something unethical but not illegal, and 10% agree with the verdict.

Ohio residents divide about whether the purpose of the investigations into Trump’s actions, in general, have been to uncover the truth (50%) or to get in the way of his 2024 campaign (49%).

Trump Tops Biden on Most Voting Issues in Ohio… Divide About Abortion

Majorities of Ohio residents think Trump will do a better job as president handling important issues.

  • Six in ten Ohio residents think Trump (60%) would do a better job than Biden (39%) handling the economy.
  • On the issue of immigration, 59% think Trump, rather than Biden (40%), would better address the issue.
  • A majority of residents statewide think Trump (55%), not Biden (43%), would better handle the United States’ role on the world stage.
  • A slim majority of Ohio adults (51%) think Trump would better deal with preserving democracy. 47% have this view of Biden.
  • Ohio residents divide when it comes to the abortion issue. 48% say Biden would better deal with the issue while 47% think Trump would have the better approach.

When thinking about the U.S. role on the world stage, a majority of Ohio Adults (53%) think the U.S. should focus on its own problems and take less of a leadership role globally. 45% believe it is crucial for the U.S. to play a major leadership role on the world stage.

Preserving Democracy and Inflation Vie for Number-One Voting Issue

When thinking about voting in November, 31% of Ohio adults say preserving democracy is top of mind. The same proportion (31%) report inflation is a key motivator. 15% cite immigration, 10% select abortion. Since the midterm elections, preserving democracy and immigration have become more important to voters. The issues of inflation and abortion have declined since 2022.

Among Biden supporters, nearly six in ten (57%) say preserving democracy is in the fore while the plurality of Trump supporters indicate that inflation (40%) is top of mind. An additional 30% of Trump backers report immigration is a priority.

Republicans +5 in Congressional Generic Ballot Question

A slim majority of registered voters (51%) statewide say they plan to support the Republican candidate on the ballot in their district. 46% say they plan to support the Democrat. Independents divide, 48% for the Republican to 46% for the Democrat.

In October 2022, Republicans (49%) led by seven percentage points against the Democrats (42%) in their district.

More Than Seven in Ten Confident in Election Process

72% of Ohio residents are either very confident or confident in their local government to carry out a fair and accurate election in November. 28% are not very confident or not confident at all that the election will be legitimate.