September 21, 2022
The 2022 Elections in Ohio
Marist Ohio Poll
Vance & Ryan in Dead Heat in Ohio Senate Race, DeWine with 18-Point Lead in Governor’s Race
In the U.S. Senate contest to fill retiring Senator Rob Portman’s seat, Democrat Tim Ryan and Republican J.D. Vance are in a statistical dead heat, among Ohio registered voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. A nearly identical scenario plays out among these voters who say they will definitely vote. In the race for Ohio governor, Republican incumbent Mike DeWine leads Democratic challenger Nan Whaley by 18 points among registered voters in the state. DeWine has a comparable lead against Whaley among voters who say they will definitely cast a ballot. DeWine was elected by less than 4 points in 2018.
In the race for U.S. Senate, only 1 point separates Republican J.D. Vance (46%) and Democrat Tim Ryan (45%) among registered voters statewide. Vance receives 48% to 47% for Ryan among voters who say they definitely plan to vote.
Among independents, Ryan receives 42% to 40% for Vance. There is a 24-point gender gap. 53% of men support Vance while 50% of women are for Ryan.
62% of Ohio voters with a candidate preference for U.S. Senate say they strongly support their choice. 66% of Ryan’s supporters, compared with 58% of those behind Vance, say they are firmly committed to their candidate pick.
While 40% of Ohio residents have a favorable opinion of Ryan, more than one in three (35%) has either never heard of or are unsure how to rate him. 25% have an unfavorable opinion of Ryan. Ohioans’ impressions of Vance are upside down. 30% have a favorable view of him and 36% have a negative one. Like Ryan, though, 34% have either never heard of or are unsure how to rate Vance.
48% of Ohio registered voters say they are more likely to support the Republican in their district running for Congress than the Democrat (42%). The Republican advantage is comparable among those who definitely plan to vote.
"This open senate seat is hotly contested and is top of the list for political pundits," says Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. "Expect both campaigns to paint their opponent in a negative way given that each candidate has low name recognition and is not well-defined to voters."
DeWine Leads Whaley by Nearly 20 Points in Ohio’s Gubernatorial Race
Among registered voters statewide, Republican incumbent Governor Mike DeWine (55%) has an 18-point lead over Democratic challenger Nan Whaley (37%) in the gubernatorial contest. DeWine (55%) has a similar 16-point lead over Whaley (39%) among voters who definitely plan to vote.
57% of Ohio voters with a candidate preference for governor say they strongly support their choice. This includes 50% of DeWine’s backers and 67% of Whaley’s supporters.
A majority of Ohio residents (54%) have a favorable view of Governor DeWine while Whaley suffers from low name recognition. 42% of adults statewide have either never heard of or are unsure how to rate Whaley. 30% of residents have a favorable view of Whaley, and 29% have an unfavorable one.
Inflation Top Voting Issue in Ohio
36% of Ohio adults say inflation is the issue that is top of mind this election season. Preserving democracy (27%), abortion, (18%), health care (13%), and immigration (6%) follow.
Inflation is the number-one issue for Republicans (48%). Among Democrats, preserving democracy (39%) takes the top spot followed by abortion (27%). Inflation (39%) is the number-one issue among independents. Preserving democracy (29%) takes the number-two spot among independents.
More than Six in Ten Plan to Vote In-person on Election Day
62% of Ohio registered voters, including 64% of definite voters, say they plan to go to the polls on Election Day. 23% of the statewide electorate think they will vote by mail or absentee ballot while 12% say they will vote at an early voting location.
Regardless of party, in-person voting is the preferred method of casting a ballot. However, Republicans (73%) and independents (62%) are more likely to go to the polls on Election Day than are Democrats (48%). 35% of Democrats report they will vote by mail or absentee ballot, and 15% say they will cast their ballot at an early voting location.
More Than Three in Four Residents Confident in Ohio Election Security
76% of Ohio residents are either confident or very confident in their state or local government’s ability to conduct a fair and accurate election. 23% have little or no confidence in the system.
President Biden’s Approval Rating in Ohio
President Joe Biden’s job approval rating is underwater among Ohioans (38% approve to 53% who disapprove). They are more than twice as likely to strongly disapprove (43%) of Biden’s job performance than to strongly approve (18%).