September 28, 2022
The 2022 Elections in Arizona
Marist Arizona Poll
Kelly Up in Arizona Senate Race, Hobbs and Lake in Tight Governor’s Race
Democrat Mark Kelly is ahead of Republican Blake Masters among Arizona registered voters in the state’s U.S. Senate race. Kelly’s lead narrows among those who say they definitely plan to vote. In Arizona’s gubernatorial contest, only one point separates Kari Lake and Katie Hobbs among the statewide electorate. Among those who say they will definitely vote in November’s elections, Lake edges Hobbs.
In the race for U.S. Senate in Arizona, Democrat Mark Kelly (51%) leads Republican Blake Masters (41%) by 10 points among registered voters statewide, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Among those who say they definitely plan to vote, Kelly (50%) is ahead of Masters (45%) by 5 points.
Among independents, Kelly (51%) receives majority support and leads Masters (34%) by double digits. A 19-point gender gap also exists. While a majority of women (55%) support Kelly, men divide (47% for Kelly to 46% for Masters).
71% of registered voters with a candidate preference for U.S. Senate strongly support their choice. Kelly’s supporters (77%) are more likely than Masters’ backers (64%) to express a strong level of support for their choice of candidate.
A plurality of Arizona residents (47%) has a favorable impression of Kelly while 39% have an unfavorable one. Masters’ favorable rating is upside down (32% favorable to 48% unfavorable). One in five (20%) has either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate Masters.
The Republican candidates (48%) running for Congress have a 4-point edge over the Democrats (44%) on the ballot among registered voters statewide. Among those who say they will definitely vote, the Republicans have a comparable 5-point edge.
Hobbs and Lake Closely Matched in Governor’s Race
In Arizona’s gubernatorial contest, 1 point separates Republican Kari Lake (46%) and Democrat Katie Hobbs (45%) among registered voters statewide. Lake (49%) edges Hobbs (46%) among those who say they will definitely vote. Among independents, Hobbs receives 43% to 41% for Lake. 15% of independents are undecided.
More than seven in ten Arizona voters with a candidate preference for governor (72%) say they strongly support their choice. This includes 71% of Hobbs’ backers and 73% of those who support Lake.
While 39% of Arizona residents have a favorable impression of Hobbs, 36% have an unfavorable opinion of her. Nearly four in ten Arizonans (39%) have a favorable impression of Lake. 42% have an unfavorable view of her.
"Ticket-splitting between Democrat Kelly for Senate and Republican Lake for governor is mostly occurring in vote-rich Maricopa County," says Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. "The Democratic candidates for Senate and governor are both carrying Pima County while both Republican candidates lead in the rest of the state."
Inflation Tops the List of Voting Issues
37% of Arizona adults say inflation is top of mind when thinking about voting in the midterm elections. 25% mention preserving democracy followed by abortion (15%) and immigration (13%). Health care is noted by 9%. Half of Republicans (50%) consider inflation to be the most important voting issue followed by immigration (24%). In contrast, 44% of Democrats mention preserving democracy as top of mind and 26% mention the issue of abortion. Among independents, 36% consider inflation to be the number-one voting issue. 23% cite preserving democracy.
Majority of Arizona Voters Plan to Vote by Mail or Absentee Ballot
57% of the Arizona electorate say they will vote by mail or absentee ballot. Nearly one in three (32%) say they will vote on Election Day, and 10% report they will vote at an early voting location. More than seven in ten Democrats (72%) and 53% of independents plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot. 46% of Republicans also expect to cast their ballot this way. An additional 44% of Arizona’s GOP report they will vote on Election Day.
Many Arizonans Express Confidence in Election Process
Nearly seven in ten adults in Arizona (69%) are very confident or confident that their state or local government will run a fair and accurate election. Three in ten (30%) either have not very much or no confidence at all in Arizona’s electoral process. Democrats (87%) are more likely to be confident in the election process than Republicans (61%).
Biden Approval Rating Upside Down
President Joe Biden’s job approval rating stands at 39% among Arizonans. 54% disapprove. Arizona residents are more than twice as likely to strongly disapprove (46%) than to strongly approve (18%) of Biden’s job performance.