June 18, 2025
NYC Mayoralty, June 2025
Cuomo Breaks 50% in 7th Round of Ranked Choice Voting
Andrew Cuomo leads the Democratic primary race for New York City Mayor, but the contest has tightened. Cuomo is the first-choice candidate of nearly four in ten likely Democratic primary voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Zohran Mamdani places second with more than a quarter of the vote. The remaining field receives support in single digits. Last month, Cuomo outpaced Mamdani as voters’ first choice by 19 points, down now to 11. When calculating ranked choice voting round-by-round estimates, Cuomo’s support rounds up to 50% in the sixth round. He crosses the 50% threshold in Round 7 with 55%. However, there are still votes on the table that could be critical in determining the eventual winner of the primary. 11% of likely Democratic primary voters are undecided on their first choice, and another 11% do not choose Cuomo or Mamdani as one of their candidate selections at any point.
In the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor, Cuomo is the first-choice candidate of 38% of likely Democratic primary voters. Mamdani comes in second with 27%, up from 18% last month. Brad Lander and Adrienne Adams follow. Each receives 7% of the vote. Scott Stringer garners 4% while Zellnor Myrie and Michael Blake receive 2% each. Whitney Tilson has 1% of the likely Democratic primary vote while Jessica Ramos, Selma Bartholomew, and Paperboy Love Prince receive less than one percent each. 11% are undecided, a decrease from 17% in May.
Cuomo continues to do best in the Bronx where he receives 49%, similar to his support in May. Cuomo also leads in Queens/Staten Island where he receives 44%. Cuomo's support in Manhattan has increased (41% from 32% in May), while Mamdani's backing is little changed in the borough. Mamdani's best borough is Brooklyn where he has 36%, an 11-point increase from last month. Cuomo garners 26% in Kings County, comparable to the 25% he received last month.
Mamdani has made inroads among likely Democratic primary voters who are Latino. Mamdani's support has more than doubled among this voting group (41% from 20%), and he now leads the field among Latinos. Cuomo's support among Latino voters has declined (36% from 41% in May).
44% of likely Democratic primary voters say they plan to vote in-person on primary day. Cuomo (40%) bests Mamdani (25%) as the first-choice candidate among those who plan to vote on primary day. 43% of likely Democratic primary voters say they plan to vote early at a voting location. The contest tightens among these voters. Cuomo (37%) edges Mamdani (32%) by five points. 11% of likely Democratic primary voters report they will vote by mail or by absentee ballot. Cuomo (40%) has a double-digit lead against Mamdani (22%) among these voters.
When calculating ranked choice voting round-by-round estimates, Cuomo receives 43% to 31% for Mamdani in the first round among likely Democratic primary voters (excluding undecided voters). Lander follows with 8%. Adams has 7%, while Stringer receives 4%. Myrie (2%), Blake (2%), and Tilson (1%) each receives support in the low single digits. Less than 1% support Ramos, Bartholomew, or Prince.
In the 7th round of voting, Cuomo crosses the 50% threshold and receives 55% of likely Democratic primary voters (excluding undecideds). Mamdani places second with 45%, Of note, Cuomo's support in the sixth round rounds up to 50%, but he does not receive majority support until Round 7. In May, Cuomo received majority support in the fifth round.
INSERT IMAGE (ROUND-BY-ROUND) HERE
Many Primary Voters Following Campaign
Are voters following the campaign? Three in four likely Democratic primary voters say they are following the mayoralty campaign closely (43%) or very closely (32%), up from about two-thirds last month. About one in four are not following the contest closely (20%) or are not following it at all (4%).
Take on Trump, Say More than Seven in Ten NYC Dem Voters
72% of likely Democratic primary voters want the Democratic candidate for mayor to oppose President Donald Trump. 26% want the Democrat on the ballot to compromise with the President to find solutions.
Dem Primary Voters Say NYC is Off Course
77% of likely Democratic primary voters think the city is moving in the wrong direction. 21% say it is moving in the right one.