NBC News/Marist Poll Results & Analysis of Florida: September 2020

Trump and Biden Tied in Florida

In Florida, President Donald Trump (48%) and former Vice President Joe Biden (48%) are in a dead heat in the presidential contest among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. In 2016, Trump carried the state by slightly more than one percentage point.

FL Presidential Tossup
If November's election for president were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are: [If undecided: If you had to decide today, are you leaning more towards:]
Source: NBC News/Marist Poll. Survey conducted Aug 31 – Sep 6, 2020. Margin of error for 766 likely voters is +/- 4.5%.
  • Trump has the advantage among white voters, white evangelical Christians, men – especially white men without a college degree, and voters in small towns or rural areas.

  • Biden does well among Black voters, those with a college degree who are likely to vote, women – especially white women with a college degree – and residents in cities and the suburbs.

  • White college graduates and voters, regardless of age, divide.

  • Trump (50%) is doing well against Biden (46%) among Latinos. In the 2016 exit poll, Trump trailed Clinton, 62% to 35%.

  • Biden receives the support of 49% of those 65 and older to 48% for Trump. In the 2016 exit poll, Trump had 57% to 40% for Clinton.

  • 51% of independents support Biden to 40% for Trump.

  • Seven percent of likely voters are persuadable, that is, voters who are undecided or who support a candidate but might vote differently.

82% of likely voters with a candidate preference for president strongly support their choice of candidate, including 88% of Trump’s supporters and 76% of those backing Biden.

“It’s not unusual for Florida to be this close,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “If Trump loses Florida, it’s game over. If Trump wins, the story of the night will still have to be told.”

Florida adults divide about Trump’s job performance. 45% approve, and 48% disapprove. In November 2018, Trump scored a 43% approval rating in the state. 39% of residents statewide strongly disapprove, and 33% strongly approve.

Likely voters in Florida divide about Trump’s favorability (47% favorable to 50% unfavorable). Biden’s favorable score is also upside down. 46% perceive him favorably to 49% unfavorably. Likely voters in the Sunshine State consider Trump to be the candidate to better deal with the economy while Biden is perceived to be stronger on handling race relations and coronavirus. They divide about the candidate who will better handle crime.

Candidate Who Would Better Handle the Issues

Source: NBC News/Marist Poll. Survey conducted Aug 31 – Sep 6, 2020. Margin of error for 766 likely voters is +/- 4.5%.

Other Findings

Pence and Harris Favorability Ratings

Likely voters divide about their impressions of Vice President Mike Pence and Senator Kamala Harris, Democratic Vice Presidential nominee. 47% see Pence favorably, and 44% perceive him unfavorably. Harris’ favorability rating stands at 44%. 45% have an unfavorable impression of her.

Independents are more likely to have a favorable opinion of Harris (46%) than Pence (35%). Partisan and racial differences exist.

Concerns Over Racial Protests

In reaction to the national protests over the actions of police against George Floyd in Minneapolis and Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wisconsin, Florida adults divide about whether the actions of the police against these men (44%) or the actions of the protestors looting or using violence (43%) concerns them more. A partisan divide is present.

Governor Ron De Santis’ Approval Rating

44% of Florida residents approve of the job Governor Ron DeSantis is doing as governor. 42% disapprove.