NBC News/Marist Poll Results & Analysis of Arizona: July 2020

Biden Up Five Points Over Trump in Arizona

In the presidential contest in Arizona, Biden receives 50% to 45% for President Donald Trump among registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Biden previously received 47% to 46% for Trump among registered voters in a, then, hypothetical matchup in mid-March. In 2016, Trump carried the state by three-and-a-half points.

AZ Presidential Tossup
If November's election for president were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are: (If undecided: If you had to decide today, are you leaning more towards:)
Source: NBC News/Marist Poll. Survey conducted July 14-22, 2020. Margin of error for 826 registered voters is +/- 4.1%.
  • 55% of independents support Biden.

  • Biden’s strength is among Latinos, voters with a college degree – especially white women with a college degree – women overall, voters under 45, and residents in big cities and the suburbs.

  • White evangelical Christians, men – especially white men without a college degree, voters 45 or older, and voters in small towns or rural areas buoy Trump.

  • Biden (56%) is the preference of voters who have an unfavorable view of both Biden and Trump.

  • 12% of voters are persuadable, that is, voters who are undecided or who support a candidate but might vote differently.

67% of voters with a candidate preference for president strongly support their choice of candidate, including 61% of Biden’s backers and 74% of Trump’s supporters.

With 11 electoral votes in play, the 2020 battle for the White House goes through the Sunbelt and the Midwest,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Democrats also have a potential Senate gain given Kelly’s wide lead over McSally.

53% of Arizonans disapprove of Trump’s job performance. 41% approve. Residents previously divided, 45% disapprove to 47% approve. 40% of Arizonans, including 78% of Biden’s supporters, strongly disapprove of Trump’s job performance. 26% of adults statewide strongly approve.

The favorable ratings of Biden (41% favorable to 50% unfavorable) and Trump (38% favorable to 58% unfavorable) are upside down. Arizonans consider Trump to be the better candidate to deal with the economy. Biden is perceived to be stronger on handling race relations and coronavirus.

Who do you think would be better when it comes to dealing with:

Source: NBC News/Marist Poll. Survey conducted July 14-22, 2020. Margin of error for 1020 registered voters is +/- 3.7%.

Other Findings

Coronavirus

As the battle against coronavirus continues in Arizona, 50% of Arizona adults believe the pandemic in their state is getting worse. 17% say things are getting better, and 31% think things are staying about the same.

U.S. Senate Race

In the race for U.S. Senate in Arizona, Democrat Mark Kelly (53%) has a double-digit lead over Republican Martha McSally (41%) among registered voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Just three points separated Kelly (48%) and McSally (45%) in March.

61% of voters with a candidate preference for U.S. Senate say they strongly support their choice of candidate. 63% of Kelly’s supporters and 58% of McSally’s supporters have this level of support for their candidate.

Governor Ducey’s Approval Rating

Half of Arizonans (50%) disapprove of Governor Doug Ducey’s job performance. 39% approve.