Pennsylvania Presidential Race, Nov 2020

NBC News/Marist Poll

Biden Up by Five Points in Pennsylvania

Former Vice President Joe Biden (51%) runs ahead of President Donald Trump (46%) by 5 points among Pennsylvania likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who already voted. Biden led Trump by nine points in September, 53% for Biden to 44% for Trump.

PA Presidential Tossup
If November's election for president were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are: [If undecided: If you had to decide today, are you leaning more towards:][If already voted: Whom did you support in the presidential election?]
Source: NBC News/Marist Poll. Survey conducted Oct 29 – Nov 1, 2020. Margin of error for 772 likely voters is +/- 4.4%.
  • Biden is bolstered by non-whites, whites with a college degree – especially white women with a college degree – likely voters under age 45, women, early voters, voters in big cities, and those in small cities and suburbs.

  • Trump is buoyed by white evangelical Christians, white voters without a college degree – especially white men without a college degree – men overall, Election Day voters, and those in small towns or rural areas.

  • Biden has a 5-point edge among voters age 65+, a group Trump won by 10 points in 2016.

  • White voters, a group Trump won by 16 points in 2016, now divide.

  • Biden (55%) outpaces Trump (38%) among independents, a group Trump carried by 7 points last time.

  • Four percent of likely voters are persuadable, that is, voters who are undecided or who support a candidate but might vote differently.

85% of likely voters with a candidate preference for president strongly support their choice of candidate, including 88% of Trump’s supporters and 81% of those backing Biden.

“Pennsylvania was a nail-biter in 2016 and is hotly contested again this time,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Poll. “It was part of Clinton’s crumbled ‘blue wall.’ Biden hopes it’s the final brick in rebuilding the rustbelt for the Democrats.”

A majority of Pennsylvania likely voters (51%) have a positive opinion of Biden. 45% have a negative one. Trump’s favorable rating is under water among likely voters (43% favorable to 53% unfavorable).

President Trump’s job approval rating is at 45% among Pennsylvania adults. 49% disapprove. Trump’s approval rating is nearly identical to what he received in September when 45% approved and 50% disapproved. 32% of Pennsylvanians strongly approve of Trump’s job performance, and 43% strongly disapprove.

Other Findings

Governor Tom Wolf’s Job Approval Rating

50% of Pennsylvanians approve of the job Governor Tom Wolf is doing in office, and 39% disapprove. In September, Wolf’s rating stood at 53% approved, and 37% disapproved.

The Confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett

47% of Pennsylvania residents support the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett to the United States Supreme Court. 39% oppose it, and 14% are unsure.