NBC News/Marist Poll Results & Analysis of North Carolina: October 2020

Biden Up by 6 Points in North Carolina

In North Carolina, former Vice President Joe Biden receives the support of 52% to 46% for President Donald Trump among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who already voted. Among North Carolina registered voters, Biden has 51% to 46% for Trump. Biden (51%) was +7 points over Trump (44%) among North Carolina registered voters in July.

NC Presidential Tossup
If November's election for president were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are: [If undecided: If you had to decide today, are you leaning more towards:][If already voted: Whom did you support in the presidential election?]
Source: NBC News/Marist Poll. Survey conducted Oct 25-28, 2020. Margin of error for 800 likely voters is +/- 4.7%.
  • Biden leads Trump among Blacks who are likely to vote, those who say they are voting by mail or absentee ballot, white voters with a college degree – especially white women with a college degree – voters under the age of 45, women, and voters in the cities and suburbs.

  • Trump is ahead among white Evangelical Christians, those who plan to vote in-person on Election Day, whites — especially white men without a college degree – men, and voters in small towns or rural areas.

  • Trump is +14 among whites. He carried this group by 31 points in 2016.

  • Independents are +9 points for Biden, a group that supported Trump by 16 points in 2016.

  • Voters age 65 and older divide (50% Trump to 49% Biden). Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by 23 points among these voters in 2016.

  • 62% of registered voters report having voted.

  • Only 2% of likely voters are persuadable, that is, voters who are undecided or who support a candidate but might vote differently.

77% of likely voters with a candidate preference for president strongly support their choice, including 72% of Biden’s backers and 83% of Trump’s supporters.

“The Democrats have only carried North Carolina once in the last nine presidential elections when Obama squeaked by in 2008,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Poll. “Right now, the advantage is Biden’s, owing to the inroads he’s made among women with a college degree, independents, and seniors.”

Half of likely voters in North Carolina (50%) have a favorable opinion of Biden, and 46% have an unfavorable view of him. Trump’s favorable rating is upside down among likely voters (43% favorable to 54% unfavorable).

A majority of North Carolinians (51%) disapprove of how President Trump is performing in office. 44% approve. 44% of residents strongly disapprove of how the president is carrying out his duties, and 34% strongly approve.

 

Other Findings

U.S. Senate Race in North Carolina

In the U.S. Senate race in North Carolina, Democrat Cal Cunningham (53%) leads Republican incumbent Thom Tillis (43%) among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who already voted. Seven percent of likely voters are persuadable in this contest, that is, they are undecided or support a candidate but might vote differently. 50% of likely voters with a candidate preference for U.S. Senate strongly support their choice of candidate, including 48% of Cunningham’s supporters and 52% of voters for Tillis.

North Carolina’s Gubernatorial Race

Democratic incumbent Governor Roy Cooper (59%) outpaces Republican challenger Dan Forest (40%) among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who already voted. Three percent of likely voters are persuadable in this contest, that is, they are undecided or support a candidate but might vote differently. 74% of likely voters with a candidate preference for governor strongly support their choice of candidate. 78% of Cooper’s supporters, compared with 69% of Forest’s backers, express this level of support.

The Job Approval Rating of Governor Cooper

59% of North Carolinians approve of how Governor Cooper is performing in office. Cooper’s approval rating stood at 58% in July.

The Confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett

47% of North Carolina adults support the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett to the United States Supreme Court. 37% oppose it, and 16% are unsure.