NBC News/Marist Poll Results & Analysis of Florida: October 2020

Biden Edges Trump in Florida

Former Vice President Joe Biden (51%) is up by 4 points over President Donald Trump (47%) among Florida likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who already voted. In September, Biden and Trump tied. Each received 48% of the vote among these voters.

Florida Presidential Tossup
If November's election for president were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are: [If undecided: If you had to decide today, are you leaning more towards:][If already voted: Whom did you support in the presidential election?]
Source: NBC News/Marist Poll. Survey conducted October 25-27, 2020. Margin of error for 743 likely voters is +/- 4.4%.
  • Biden leads Trump among Black voters, those that say they are voting by mail or absentee ballot, voters with a college degree – especially white women with a college degree – voters under the age of 45, those age 65 or older, women, and likely voters in small cities and the suburbs.

  • Voters age 65+ divided in last month’s survey and are now +7 for Biden. In 2016, Trump carried this group by 17 points against Clinton.

  • Trump draws strength from white Evangelical Christians, likely voters who plan to cast their ballot in-person, white men without a college degree, men overall, Latinos, and voters in small towns or rural areas.

  • Trump (52%) continues to best Biden among Latinos (46%), a group Clinton won by 27 points.

  • Biden has the support of 55% of independents to 41% for Trump. Clinton lost Florida independents to Trump by 4 points last time.

  • 59% of registered voters report they have already cast their ballot.

  • Three percent of likely voters are persuadable, that is, voters who are undecided or who support a candidate but might vote differently.

81% of likely voters with a candidate preference for president strongly support their choice. 84% of Trump’s supporters compared with 77% of Biden’s backers are firmly committed to their candidate.

“Right now, Biden runs up the score among voters 65+ and independents, groups Trump carried in 2016,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Poll. “Still, Trump keeps pace with Biden among Latino voters, a group Trump lost badly last time.”

President Trump’s favorable rating is upside down. 45% of likely voters in Florida have a positive view of Trump, and 52% have a negative impression of him. Previously, 47% viewed Trump favorably, and 50% perceived him unfavorably. 48% have a positive view of Biden while 49% have a negative one. In September, Biden’s favorable score was 46% to 49% among Florida likely voters.

President Trump’s job approval rating among adults statewide stands at 45% compared with 49% who disapprove. Last month, Floridians similarly divided (45% approved to 48% who disapproved). 42% of residents strongly disapprove of President Trump’s job performance, and 33% strongly approve.

 

Other Findings

The Approval Rating of Governor Ron DeSantis

44% of Floridians approve of the job Governor Ron DeSantis is doing in office, and 45% disapprove. DeSantis’ approval rating last month was 44%, and 42% disapproved.

The Confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett

47% of Florida residents support the confirmation of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the United States Supreme Court. 40% oppose it, and more than one in ten (13%) are unsure.