NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll Results & Analysis: CD-11

NY CD-11 Up for Grabs

In the contest in New York’s 11th congressional district, Republican Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis (48%) and incumbent Democratic Congressman Max Rose (46%) are in a virtual dead heat among likely voters in the district including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who have already voted. Among all registered voters, Rose has 47% to 46% for Malliotakis.

NY CD-11 Tossup
If November's election for Congress were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are: [If undecided: If you had to decide today, are you leaning more towards:][If already voted: Whom did you support in the election for Congress?]
Source: NBC 4 NY/Marist Poll. Survey conducted Oct 19 - 21, 2020. Margin of error for 650 likely voters is +/- 4.7%
  • Malliotakis does well among likely voters in NY CD-11 who live in Staten Island, whites – especially white men without a college degree – those age 45 or older, and men.

  • Rose draws strength from likely voters who live in Brooklyn, Latinos, white women with a college education, and likely voters under the age of 45 – especially those in Gen Z and Millennials.

  • Independents, white voters with a college degree and women divide.

  • 10% of likely voters are persuadable, that is, voters who are undecided or who support a candidate but might vote differently.

63% of likely voters in New York’s 11th congressional district with a candidate preference for Congress strongly support their choice of candidate, including 65% of Malliotakis’ backers and 62% of Rose’s supporters.

“This is one of the few congressional cliffhangers around the nation” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist Poll. “Two factors may decide who wins: how Trump and Biden do in the district at the top of the ticket and whether or not turnout is off the charts.”

Likely voters in New York’s 11th congressional district divide about their impressions of Malliotakis and Rose. 45% have a favorable impression of Malliotakis, and 41% have an unfavorable view of her. 43% view Rose favorably. 44% do not. For both candidates, more than one in ten have either never heard of or are unsure how to rate the candidates.

 

Other Findings

Among likely voters in News York’s 11th congressional district including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who voted early, President Donald Trump (53%) leads former Vice President Joe Biden (46%) by seven points. In 2016, Trump carried the district by almost ten points.

Three percent of likely voters in the district are persuadable about their presidential preference, that is, voters who are undecided or who support a candidate but might vote differently.

82% of likely voters with a candidate preference for president strongly support their choice of candidate, including 89% of Trump’s backers and 73% of Biden’s supporters.

President Trump’s Job Approval Rating

Registered voters in New York’s 11th congressional district divide about President Donald Trump’s job performance. 49% approve, and 48% disapprove. 38% of registered voters in NY CD-11 strongly approve of Trump’s job performance while 41% strongly disapprove.

The Electoral Process

73% of registered voters in New York’s 11th congressional district think the best way to ensure their vote is accurately counted is to vote in-person on Election Day. This includes 92% of Republicans, 59% of Democrats, and 68% of independents. 14%, including more than one in five Democrats (22%), assert voting at an early voting location is the best method. Only 8% say voting by mail or absentee ballot is the best way to ensure their vote is counted.

Many voters say it is either very likely (32%) or likely (30%) that all votes will not be counted. More than three in ten think it is not very likely (19%) or not likely at all (12%) this will occur.

While more than one in five NY CD-11 registered voters (22%) have donated to a political campaign outside of New York State, 77% say they have not done so.

Confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett to the U.S. Supreme Court

47% of registered voters in NY CD-11 think Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barret should be confirmed immediately. 22% report she should be confirmed but after the election, and 28% say she should not be confirmed.

The Coronavirus

Nearly three in four voters in New York’s 11th congressional district (73%) always wear a face mask or facial covering when they leave their home. 14% wear one often, and 9% sometimes wear a face mask to protect themselves from the coronavirus threat. Only 4% never wear a mask.

88% of Democrats, 57% of Republicans, and 76% of independents say they always wear a face mask when leaving their homes.