September 19, 2024
U.S. Presidential Contest: Pennsylvania, September 2024
Marist Pennsylvania Poll
Harris & Trump Tied Among Likely Voters in Pennsylvania
In the key electoral state of Pennsylvania, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are tied among likely voters statewide, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Trump edges Harris among independent voters and surpasses the support he received among independents in the 2020 Presidential Election Exit Poll. Harris and Trump are competitive among white voters, marking a departure from the support Trump received in 2020. Harris leads Trump among nonwhite voters. Still, Harris’ support among nonwhites fails to match the support President Joe Biden received four years ago. A wide gender gap also exists in Pennsylvania.
Harris (49%) and Trump (49%) are tied among Pennsylvania likely voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. 90% of likely voters with a candidate preference for President strongly support their choice of candidate.
Trump (49%) edges Harris (45%) among independents who are likely to vote. Trump is doing better among independents than he did in the 2020 election (44%), according to the 2020 Exit Poll. Harris underperforms what the support President Joe Biden received among this voting group in 2020 (52%).
Trump (54%) receives majority support among Pennsylvania voters who say they will vote in-person. Harris (68%) outpaces Trump (31%) among those who say they plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot.
Trump (51%) edges Harris (48%) among white voters. In the 2020 presidential election, Trump carried white voters by 15 points. Harris (59%) leads Trump (38%) among nonwhite voters. Harris, though, fails to match the support Biden received among voters of color (82%) in 2020.
A 22-point gender gap exists. Trump (54%) leads Harris (44%) among men while Harris (55%) is ahead of Trump (43%) among women.
Harris receives majority support among GenZ/Millennials (54%) and Baby Boomers (55%). Trump (56%) receives similar support among GenX. The Silent/Greatest generation divide (50% for Harris to 47% for Trump).
"Pennsylvania is attracting the most attention of the Rust Belt states from the presidential candidates and with good reason," says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "It's the biggest prize in the region and the most competitive. Winning Pennsylvania doesn't guarantee the White House, but it goes a long way."
Inflation & Preserving Democracy Top Voting Issues for Pennsylvania Adults
When thinking about voting in November, the following issues are top of mind for Pennsylvanians:
- Inflation is the priority for 33%.
- Preserving democracy receives 27%.
- Immigration follows with 15%.
- Abortion is top of mind for 11%.
- Health care (7%), crime (4%), and the war in the Middle East (3%) round out Pennsylvanians’ responses.
Honesty, Strength of Leadership, and Positions on the Issues Mark Top Candidate Qualities
Pennsylvania residents weigh in on the most important candidate quality influencing their vote:
- 23% believe a candidate who is honest and trustworthy is most important.
- A candidate who is a strong leader is the most important for 21%.
- 20% say a candidate who is closer to them on the issues is most important when deciding their vote.
- A candidate who shares their values is key for 16% of Pennsylvania residents.
- 16% say a candidate who will bring about change is the most important candidate quality.
- Two percent note that experience is the most important quality in a candidate.
Trump bests Harris in the presidential contest among Pennsylvania likely voters who value a candidate’s positions on the issues, strength of leadership, or can bring about change. Harris bests Trump among likely voters who perceive a candidate who shares their values to be the priority or who is honest and trustworthy.
Most Voters Know for Whom They Plan to Vote
82% of registered voters statewide say they already know the candidate for whom they plan to vote, and nothing will change their mind. 14% say they have a good idea of the candidate they will support but could change their mind. Four percent have not made up their mind.
35% of independent voters say they could change their mind or have not made their decision.
Harris, Trump, & Vance with Upside Down Favorable Ratings… Mixed on Walz
- Harris’ favorable score among Pennsylvania adults is 46%. 50% view Harris unfavorably.
- Trump’s favorable rating is 46% compared with 51% who hold a negative view of him.
- Democratic vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz has a favorable rating of 42% to 40% unfavorable. 17% have either never heard of Walz or are unsure how to rate him.
- Republican vice-presidential candidate J.D. Vance has a favorable rating of 38% among residents statewide. 44% have an unfavorable impression of Vance, and 17% have either never heard of Vance or are unsure how to rate him.
Casey Leads McCormick by 5 Points in the U.S. Senate Race in Pennsylvania
Democratic incumbent Bob Casey receives the support of 52% of Pennsylvania likely voters to 47% for his Republican challenger David McCormick.
75% of likely voters with a candidate preference for Senate say they strongly support their choice of candidate for U.S. Senate.
Casey Viewed Favorably by Plurality… McCormick’s Favorable Rating Upside Down
- 45% of Pennsylvania residents view Casey favorably. 39% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 16% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate Casey.
- 34% of adults statewide have a positive impression of McCormick compared with 41% who have an unfavorable view of him. 24% have either never heard of McCormick or are unsure how to rate him.
Generic Congressional Ballot Competitive Among Pennsylvania Registered Voters
50% of registered voters statewide say they plan to vote for the Democratic congressional candidate on the ballot in their district. 48% expect to support the Republican candidate for their representative to the House.
Seven in Ten Pennsylvanians Confident in Electoral Process
70% of adults statewide are either very confident or confident in their state and local officials to carry out a fair and accurate election in November. 29% are not very confident or not confident at all in the integrity of the electoral process.
More than Seven in Ten Registered Voters in Pennsylvania Plan to Vote In-Person
71% of registered voters statewide say they plan to vote in-person on Election Day. 23% plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot, and 4% expect to vote at a early voting location.
Biden’s Approval Rating at 41% in Pennsylvania
41% of Pennsylvania residents approve of the job President Joe Biden is doing in office. 55% disapprove. 46% of Pennsylvania adults currently say they strongly disapprove of how Biden is performing in his post compared with 22% who strongly approve.
Methodology
This survey of 1,754 Pennsylvania adults was conducted September 12th through September 17th, 2024 by the Marist Poll. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state of Pennsylvania were contacted through a multi-mode design: By phone using live interviewers, by text, or online. Results for all adults (n=1,754) are statistically significant within ±2.9 percentage points. Results for registered voters (n=1,663) are statistically significant within ±3.0 percentage points. Results for likely voters (n=1,476) are statistically significant within ±3.2 percentage points. Likely voters include registered voters who report they are definitely voting in this year’s election.