November 1, 2024
Marist Pennsylvania Poll: U.S. Presidential Contest in Pennsylvania, November 2024
Harris +2 Points Against Trump in Pennsylvania
Two points separate Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in the presidential contest among Pennsylvania likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Harris has made inroads among independents. She now leads Trump by 15 points among these voters and receives greater support among them than President Joe Biden had in 2020, according to the 2020 Presidential Exit Poll. While Trump edges Harris among white voters, he falls short of the support he received among these voters in 2020. Harris outpaces Trump among Black voters but fails to reach the support Biden received four years ago. The gender gap has narrowed to 12 points in Pennsylvania.
- Harris receives the support of 50% of Pennsylvania likely voters to 48% for Trump. In September, Harris (49%) and Trump (49%) tied. Among likely voters with a candidate preference for President, 89% say they strongly support their choice of candidate. 90% of Trump’s backers, compared with 87% of Harris’ supporters, say they are firmly committed to their choice of candidate.
- There has been a 19-point shift among independents, with Harris (55%) overtaking Trump (40%) for the lead. In early September, Trump (49%) edged Harris (45%) by 4 points among independents. Harris does better among independents than President Joe Biden (52%) did in 2020. Trump is underperforming the 44% he received four years ago.
- Harris (63%) outpaces Trump (35%) among likely voters who say they have already voted. Trump (54%) receives majority support against Harris (44%) among those who have yet to vote.
- Trump (51%) edges Harris (47%) among white voters. However, Trump falls short of the 57% he garnered among white voters in 2020. Harris, though, does better among this group than Biden (42%) in 2020. Among Black voters, Harris (84%) outpaces Trump (16%). Still, she underperforms the 92% Biden support received among Black voters four years ago.
- The gender gap has narrowed to 12 points from 22 points in September. Harris (53%) leads Trump (45%) by 8 points among women. Among men, Trump (51%) edges Harris (47%) by 4 points. Trump carried men by 11 points in 2020, and Biden carried women by the same margin.
- Harris (55%) receives majority support among Gen Z and Millennials and among the Silent/Greatest Generation (54%). Trump has majority support among Gen X (51%). Baby Boomers divide (50% for Trump to 48% for Harris).
"The Keystone State is the biggest prize of the three highly competitive so-called Blue Wall states," says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "The good news for Harris is she is running stronger among independents and white voters than Biden did four years ago. The bad news is the gender gap is not as wide here as it was in 2020 or, in fact, where it is elsewhere now."
More Than Six in Ten Likely Voters Plan to Vote on Election Day
62% of Pennsylvania likely voters say they plan to vote in-person on Election Day. 27% say they have voted already by mail. Six percent say they have voted in-person at an early voting location, and 6% say they have not voted but plan to vote before Election Day.
Inflation & Preserving Democracy Key Voting Issues in Pennsylvania
When thinking about voting, Pennsylvania residents say the following are top of mind:
- 31% cite inflation.
- 29% choose preserving democracy.
- 17% think immigration is the priority.
- 12% say the abortion issue is a motivating factor.
- Crime (5%), health care (5%) and the war in the Middle East (2%) follow.
Harris Perceived as Better Able to Handle Abortion Issue & Preserving Democracy… Trump Viewed as Stronger on Immigration & War in the Middle East… Divide on Economy
- Harris (56%) is thought to be the candidate who can better address the issue of abortion. 43% say Trump is stronger on the issue.
- A majority (53%) think Harris, not Trump (47%), would better handle preserving democracy.
- Trump (53%) is viewed as stronger than Harris (46%) on the issue of immigration.
- A majority (52%) also say Trump would better handle the war in the Middle East. 47% have this opinion of Harris.
- Residents divide about whether Trump (51%) or Harris (49%) would better handle the economy.
Residents Divide about Harris’ Favorability… Trump’s Upside Down
- 48% of adults statewide have a favorable view of Harris while 48% have an unfavorable opinion of her.
- 46% of residents have a positive opinion of Trump. 50% have a negative impression of him.
PA Race for U.S. Senate Tightens
In the contest for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania, Democratic incumbent Bob Casey receives 50% to 48% for his Republican challenger David McCormick among likely voters statewide, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. In September, Casey (52%) had a 5-point lead over McCormick (47%). Among likely voters with a candidate preference for U.S. Senate, 76% say they strongly support their choice of candidate. 75% of Casey’s supporters, compared with 76% of McCormick’s backers, say they are firmly committed to their choice of candidate.
Residents Divide About Casey’s and McCormick’s Favorable Rating
- 43% of Pennsylvania adults have a favorable view of Casey while 42% have an unfavorable view of him. 16% have either never heard of or are unsure how to rate Casey. Of note, Casey’s negative rating has inched up from 39%.
- 40% of residents statewide have a positive impression of McCormick, and 39% have a negative one. 21% have either never heard of McCormick or are unsure how to rate him. McCormick’s favorable rating has increased from 34% in September.
Democrats & Republicans Competitive on Generic Congressional Ballot
50% of likely voters say they plan to support the Democratic candidate running for Congress in their district while 49% say they plan to support the Republican. Support is identical among registered voters.
Biden Approval Rating Upside Down in Pennsylvania
41% of Pennsylvania adults approve of the job Biden is doing in office. 55% disapprove. By nearly two-to-one, adults statewide are more likely to strongly disapprove (43%) of the job Biden is doing in office than to strongly approve (22%).
Methodology
This survey of 1,642 Pennsylvania adults was conducted October 27th through October 30th, 2024 by the Marist Poll. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state of Pennsylvania were contacted through a multi-mode design: By phone using live interviewers, by text, or online. Results for all adults (n=1,642) are statistically significant within ±3.1 percentage points. Results for registered voters (n=1,558) are statistically significant within ±3.2 percentage points. Results for likely voters (n=1,400) are statistically significant within ±3.4 percentage points. Likely voters include registered voters who report they are definitely voting in this year’s election.