October 24, 2024
Marist North Carolina Poll: U.S. Presidential Contest in North Carolina, October 2024
Trump +2 Points in North Carolina
Two points separate former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris among North Carolina likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Trump has opened up a lead over Harris among independents, and he outpaces Harris among white voters. However, Trump fails to achieve the same support among white voters that he received in 2020. While Harris bests Trump among Black voters, she falls short in reaching the level of support President Joe Biden received among Black voters four years ago. The gender gap in North Carolina has all but disappeared. Trump leads Harris among men. Women divide.
- Trump receives 50% to 48% for Harris among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. 89% of likely voters with a candidate preference for President say they strongly support their choice of candidate.
- Trump (53%) leads Harris (42%) among independents who are likely to vote. In September, Trump (48%) and Harris (48%) tied among independents statewide. According to the 2020 Exit Poll, Biden (50%) carried independents by 4 points against Trump (46%).
- Harris (55%) is +12 points over Trump (43%) among voters who say they have already cast their ballot. Trump (53%) is ahead of Harris (45%) among likely voters who have yet to vote.
- Trump (58%) outpaces Harris (40%) among white voters. In 2020, Trump carried white voters by 33 points. Harris (80%) outdistances Trump (19%) among Black voters. However, Biden carried Black voters by 85 points four years ago.
- Harris (53%) receives majority support among GenZ and Millennials while Trump receives majority support among Gen X (54%). Baby Boomers (50% for Trump to 49% for Harris) and the Silent/Greatest Generation (51% for Trump to 48% for Harris) divide.
- The gender gap has narrowed from 19 points in September to 5 points. Trump (52%) leads Harris (46%) among men. Women divide (50% for Trump to 49% for Harris). In 2020, a 16-point gender gap existed.
"With 16 Electoral College votes, North Carolina could help offset Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes in the scramble to get to 270," says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "But Trump has carried North Carolina both in 2016 and 2020. The outcome this time may hinge on whether Robinson, the GOP candidate for governor who significantly trails, dampens Republican enthusiasm with an adverse impact on Trump’s effort."
More Than Seven in Ten Voters Have Either Already Voted or Plan to Vote Before Election Day
A plurality of North Carolina likely voters (41%) say they have not yet voted but plan to vote before Election Day. 24% have already voted in-person at an early voting location, and 6% have already voted by mail. 29% of likely voters expect to vote on Election Day.
Inflation & Preserving Democracy are Top of Mind for Residents
When thinking about voting in November, North Carolina residents say the following issues are top of mind:
- Inflation tops the list with 32%.
- Preserving democracy is a critical voting issue for 26%.
- Immigration is the priority for 16%.
- Abortion receives 10%.
- Health care (7%), the war in the Middle East (3%), and crime (3%) follow.
Trump Viewed as Better Able to Handle the Economy, Immigration, and War in the Middle East… Harris Perceived Stronger on the Abortion Issue
- 53% of North Carolina residents think Trump, not Harris (46%), is the candidate who would better handle the economy.
- Trump (55%) is also thought to be stronger than Harris (44%) on the issue of immigration.
- 53% think that Trump would be better than Harris (45%) to deal with the war in the Middle East.
- Harris (52%) is thought to be the candidate who would better handle the issue of abortion. This compares with 46% who have this view of Trump.
- Voters divide about whether Harris (49%) or Trump (49%) would better deal with preserving democracy.
Harris’ Favorable Rating Upside Down… Residents Divide About Trump
- 45% of North Carolina residents have a favorable view of Harris compared with 50% who have an unfavorable impression of her.
- 47% of North Carolinians have a positive impression of Trump compared with 48% who have a negative view of him.
Stein Leads Robinson by 14 Points in North Carolina’s Governor’s Race
Democrat Josh Stein (55%) leads Republican Mark Robinson (41%) by 14 points among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. In September, Stein (54%) had an 11-point advantage against Robinson (43%). 76% of likely voters who have a candidate preference for governor in North Carolina strongly support their choice of candidate. Stein’s supporters (83%) are more strongly committed to their candidate than Robinson’s supporters (67%) are to him.
Plurality Views Stein Favorably… Robinson’s Rating Underwater
- 45% of residents have a favorable opinion of Stein. 25% have an unfavorable impression of him, and 30% have either never heard of Stein or are unsure how to rate him.
- Robinson’s favorable rating stands at 29%, down from 34% in September. 52% have an unfavorable view of Robinson, and 19% have either never heard of Robinson or are unsure how to rate him.
Republicans and Democrats Competitive on Generic Congressional Ballot
50% of likely voters say they plan to support the Republican candidate running for Congress in their district, and 48% say they will choose the Democratic candidate. Support among registered voters is identical to that of likely voters. In September, one point separated the Republican (49%) and Democratic (48%) congressional candidates among registered voters.
Biden Approval Rating Upside Down in North Carolina
41% of North Carolina residents approve of the job Biden is doing in office, and 55% disapprove. Residents are more than twice as likely to strongly disapprove (46%) of the job Biden is doing than to strongly approve (21%).
Methodology
This survey of 1,513 North Carolina adults was conducted October 17thth through October 22nd, 2024 by the Marist Poll. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state of North Carolina were contacted through a multi-mode design: By phone using live interviewers, by text, or online. Results for all adults (n=1,513) are statistically significant within ±3.2 percentage points. Results for registered voters (n=1,410) are statistically significant within ±3.3 percentage points. Results for likely voters (n=1,226) are statistically significant within ±3.6 percentage points. Likely voters include registered voters who report they are definitely voting in this year’s election.