October 24, 2024
Marist Georgia Poll: U.S. Presidential Contest in Georgia, October 2024
Harris & Trump Tied in Georgia
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are tied among Georgia likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Harris has gained ground among independents and receives more support among independents than President Joe Biden did in 2020. Harris is bolstered by her support among Black voters and women while Trump is buoyed by white voters and men. A 25-point gender gap exists in Georgia, up slightly from the 21% gap that was present in 2020.
- Harris (49%) and Trump (49%) are tied among Georgia likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. 89% of likely voters with a candidate preference for President, including 90% of Trump’s backers and 88% of Harris’ supporters, strongly support their choice of candidate.
- Harris (55%) leads Trump (40%) by 15 points among independents, up from 5 points in September. Biden carried independents by 9 points in 2020.
- Trump (67%) receives more than double the support of Harris (32%) among white voters. Harris (82%) outpaces Trump (15%) among Black voters and is just shy of the 88% Biden received four years ago, according to the 2020 Exit Poll.
- Harris receives majority support among Gen Z/Millennials (55%) and Baby Boomers (54%). Trump receives majority support among Gen X (55%) and the Silent/Greatest Generation (62%).
- A 25-point gender gap is present, a slight increase from the 21-point gender gap that existed in 2020. Trump (56%) leads Harris (43%) among men while Harris (55%) leads Trump (43%) among women.
- Harris (55%) leads Trump (45%) among those who say they have already voted. Trump (52%) has the advantage over Harris (46%) among likely voters who have yet to cast a ballot.
"Georgia was ground zero for so much controversy in 2020, and it couldn’t be any closer this time as well," says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "With few undecided voters or people who might change preferences between Harris and Trump, Georgia is poised to go extra innings again."
Nearly Three in Four Have Already Voted or Plan to Vote Before Election Day
34% of Georgia likely voters say they have already voted in-person at an early voting location. Six percent have already voted by mail while 34% say they have yet to vote but plan to do so before Election Day. 26% say they will vote in-person on Election Day.
Inflation Top of Mind in Georgia
When thinking about voting in November, Georgia residents say the following issues are top of mind:
- Inflation is the most important voting issue for 32% of residents.
- Preserving democracy is top of mind for 26% of Georgia residents.
- Immigration is a motivator for 17%
- The issue of abortion is a critical issue for 9%.
- Health care (8%), crime (5%), and the war in the Middle East (3%) follow.
Harris Viewed Stronger on Abortion & Preserving Democracy… Trump Bests Harris on Immigration & War in Middle East
- 54% of residents think Harris, not trump (44%), would better handle the abortion issue as President.
- Harris (52%) is also viewed as stronger than Trump (47%) when it comes to preserving democracy.
- 54% of Georgia adults see Trump, not Harris (46%), as the candidate who would better handle immigration.
- Trump (53%) is also perceived as better able to deal with the war in the Middle East. 46% have this view of Harris.
- Residents divide about whether Trump (51%) or Harris (48%) would better handle the economy.
Residents Divide About Harris and Trump’s Favorability
- 48% of residents have a favorable view of Harris, and 47% have an unfavorable impression of her.
- 47% have a positive opinion of Trump compared with 49% who have a negative one.
Republicans +1 on Generic Congressional Ballot
Half of likely voters in Georgia (50%) say they plan to support the Republican congressional candidate on the ballot in their district. 49% report they plan to vote for the Democratic candidate running for Congress. The candidates are tied among registered voters. The Republicans were +2 points among registered voters last month.
Biden Approval Rating Underwater in Georgia
42% of Georgia residents approve of Biden’s job performance, and 52% disapprove. While 25% of adults statewide strongly approve of how Biden is doing in office, 43% strongly disapprove.
Methodology
This survey of 1,440 Georgia adults was conducted October 17th through October 22nd, 2024 by the Marist Poll. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state of Georgia were contacted through a multi-mode design: By phone using live interviewers, by text, or online. Results for all adults (n=1,440) are statistically significant within ±3.5 percentage points. Results for registered voters (n=1,356) are statistically significant within ±3.6 percentage points. Results for likely voters (n=1,193) are statistically significant within ±3.9 percentage points. Likely voters include registered voters who report they are definitely voting in this year’s election.