Marist Arizona Poll: U.S. Presidential Contest in Arizona, October 2024

Trump +1 Against Harris

Just one point separates former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris among Arizona likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Harris has widened her advantage against Trump among independent voters statewide, building upon the support President Joe Biden received among these voters 4 years ago. While white voters divide, Trump now leads Harris among Latino voters in Arizona. Trump, though, carried white voters in 2020, and Biden carried Latino voters by more than twenty points. Arizona’s gender gap is more than three times what it was in the 2020 Exit Poll.

U.S. Presidential Contest in Arizona
In November´s election for president, are you supporting: [If undecided: If you had to decide today, are you leaning more towards]:
Marist Poll Arizona Likely Voters. Interviews conducted October 17th through October 22nd, 2024, n=1,193 MOE +/- 3.7 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
  • Trump receives 50% to 49% for Harris among likely voters statewide. 89% of likely voters with a candidate preference for President strongly support their choice of candidate.
  • Harris (55%) leads Trump (45%) by 10 points among independents who are likely to vote. Harris has widened the four-point edge she had among independents last month and improves upon the 9-point victory President Joe Biden had among independents in 2020.
  • Harris (56%) has the advantage over Trump (44%) among those who say they have already voted. Trump (55%), though, leads Harris (44%) among likely voters who have yet to vote.
  • White voters divide (50% for Trump to 49% for Harris). Trump carried white voters by 6 points in 2020. However, Trump (53%) has opened up a 7-point lead against Harris (46%) among Latino voters. In 2020, Biden (61%) carried Latino voters by 24 points.
  • Trump receives majority support among Gen X (52%) while Harris receives majority support among Baby Boomers (55%). Gen Z and Millennials and the Silent/Greatest Generation divide.
  • A 16-point gender gap exists. Trump (54%) leads Harris (46%) among men while Harris (53%) leads Trump (45%) among women. In 2020, a 5-point gender gap was present.

"For Harris to pull ahead in Arizona, she needs to make inroads with Gallego voters who are supporting Trump," says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "Democratic candidate Gallego is well-positioned to win the Senate contest, but Trump's inroads into Latino voters are making the contest more of challenge for Harris."

More Than Three in Four Have Voted or Plan to Vote Before Election Day

40% of Arizona likely voters say they have already cast their ballot by mail. Six percent have already voted in-person at an early voting location while 31% say they still plan to vote before Election Day. More than one in five (22%) think they will vote in-person on Election Day.

Preserving Democracy & Inflation Key Voting Issues

When thinking about voting in November, Arizona residents say the following issues are top of mind:

  • Preserving democracy is the key issue for 28% of residents.
  • Inflation ranks second with 27%.
  • Immigration receives 22%.
  • The abortion issue is top of mind for 13%.
  • Health care is a critical voting issue for 6%.
  • The war in the Middle East (2%) and crime (2%) follow.

Trump Bests Harris on Economy, Immigration, & War in Middle East… Harris Outperforms Trump on Abortion Issue

  • A majority of residents (52%) think Trump, not Harris (47%), would better handle the economy as President.
  • Trump (54%) also outperforms Harris (45%) on the issue of immigration.
  • Trump (54%) is also seen as stronger than Harris (45%) on handling the war in the Middle East.
  • Harris (54%), not Trump (44%), though, is perceived to be the candidate who will better handle the abortion issue.
  • Residents divide about whether Harris (50%) or Trump (49%) would better deal with preserving democracy.

Trump Favorable Rating Upside Down… Residents Divide About Harris

  • 49% of Arizona residents have an unfavorable impression of Harris while 47% have a favorable one.
  • Trump is viewed favorably by 46%. 50% perceive him unfavorably.

Gallego Leads Lake by 8 Points in U.S. Senate Race in Arizona

Democrat Ruben Gallego (53%) leads Republican Kari Lake (45%) by 8 points among likely voters statewide, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Among likely voters with a candidate preference for U.S. Senate, 77% strongly support their choice of candidate. Gallego’s supporters (82%) are more firmly committed to him than Lake’s supporters (72%) are to her.

Gallego Viewed Favorably by Plurality… Majority with Unfavorable Impression of Lake

  • 47% have a positive opinion of Gallego. 36% have a negative impression of the candidate, and 16% have either never heard of or are unsure how to rate Gallego.
  • 37% have a favorable opinion of Lake. 53% have an unfavorable impression of her, and 10% have either never heard of Lake or are unsure how to rate her.

Republicans Edge Democrats on Generic Congressional Ballot

51% of likely voters say they support the Republican candidate on the ballot in their district for Congress. 48% support the Democratic candidate. Two points separate the Republican (50%) and the Democratic (48%) candidates running for Congress among registered voters.

Biden Approval Rating Upside Down

42% of residents statewide approve of Biden’s job performance. 54% disapprove. By nearly two to one, residents are more likely to strongly disapprove of how Biden is doing his job (45%) than to strongly approve (24%).

Methodology

This survey of 1,427 Arizona adults was conducted October 17th through October 22nd, 2024 by the Marist Poll. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state of Arizona were contacted through a multi-mode design: By phone using live interviewers, by text, or online. Results for all adults (n=1,427) are statistically significant within ±3.4 percentage points. Results for registered voters (n=1,329 are statistically significant within ±3.5 percentage points. Results for likely voters (n=1,193) are statistically significant within ±3.7 percentage points. Likely voters include registered voters who report they are definitely voting in this year’s election.