NBC News/Marist Poll Results & Analysis of Arizona: November 2020

Biden and Trump Tied in Arizona

Former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump each receive the support of 48% of likely voters in Arizona including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who already voted. Among registered voters, the contest stands at 48% for Biden to 47% for Trump.

AZ Presidential Tossup
If November's election for president were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are: [If undecided: If you had to decide today, are you leaning more towards:][If already voted: Whom did you support in the presidential election?]
Source: NBC News/Marist Poll. Survey conducted Oct 29 – Nov 1, 2020. Margin of error for 717 likely voters is +/- 4.5%.
  • Biden does well among white voters with a college degree, voters under 45, early voters, voters in big cities and in the suburbs.

  • Trump runs ahead among white evangelical Christians, white voters without a college degree, Election Day voters, voters in small cities, and those in small towns or rural areas.

  • Biden (57%) outpaces Trump (35%) among independents. Trump defeated Clinton by 3 points among this group in 2016.

  • Biden ties Trump at 49% among white voters. Among men, Trump has only a 4-point edge. In 2016, Trump won white voters by 14 points and men by 13 points.

  • Latinos divide between Biden (49%) and Trump (45%). Clinton outdistanced Trump by 30 points among Latinos in 2016.

  • Two percent of likely voters are persuadable, that is, voters who are undecided or who support a candidate but might vote differently.

73% of likely voters with a candidate preference for president strongly support their choice of candidate. 82% of Trump’s backers, compared with 65% of Biden’s backers, have this level of support.

“Democrats have only carried Arizona once for president since 1952,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Poll. “Right now, it’s a coin flip for president but looks like there’s a good chance the Democrats will pick up a seat in the Senate here.”

Likely voters in Arizona divide in their impressions of Biden. 46% view him favorably, and 48% perceive him unfavorably. Trump’s favorable rating is 45% and his unfavorable score is 51%.

45% of Arizona residents approve of Trump’s job performance, and 48% disapprove. 32% of adults statewide strongly approve of Trump’s job performance, and 38% strongly disapprove.

 

Other Findings

U.S. Senate Race

Among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who already voted, 52% support Democrat Mark Kelly to 46% for Republican incumbent Martha McSally in the race for U.S. Senate in Arizona. Three percent of likely voters are persuadable, that is, voters who are undecided or who support a candidate but might vote differently.

62% of likely voters with a candidate preference for U.S. Senate say they strongly support their choice of candidate. This includes 67% of Kelly’s supporters and 56% who are for McSally.

Among registered voters, Kelly (52%) has a 7-point advantage over McSally (45%).

Governor Ducey’s Approval Rating

44% of Arizona residents approve of Governor Doug Ducey’s job performance. 41% disapprove, and 15% are unsure. During the summer, 39% approved of how the governor was performing in his post, and 50% disapproved.

Confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett

45% of residents statewide approve of the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett to the United States Supreme Court. 38% oppose her confirmation, and 17% are unsure.