A Nation Divided?

Marist National Poll

Nearly Half of Americans Think U.S. Could See Another Civil War

More than 160 years after the Civil War began, nearly half of Americans think it is either very likely or likely that they will see a second civil war. Perceptions about the possibility of another domestic conflict break along partisan, generational, racial, and gender lines.

Another U.S. Civil War?
How likely do you think it is that there will be another Civil War in the U.S. in your lifetime:
Source: Marist Poll National Adults. Interviews conducted April 16th through April 18th, 2024, n=1,192 MOE +/- 3.4 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
  • 47% of Americans think there is a likelihood of another U.S. Civil War in their lifetime. A slim majority (52%) think the possibility is either not very likely or not likely at all.

  • Republicans (53%) are more likely than Democrats (40%) and independents (41%) to say there is a good chance that our nation will experience a civil war in the future.

  • Members of Gen Z and Millennials (58%) are more than three times as likely as the Silent/Greatest Generation (19%) to foresee a civil war during their lifetime. 46% of Gen X and 34% of Baby Boomers agree.

  • Perceptions also differ by race. 57% of Black Americans think there is a likelihood that another civil war will occur. This includes 22% who say the possibility is very likely. 50% of Latinos and 43% of whites think a domestic conflict is either very likely or likely to happen during their lifetime.

  • While a majority of women (51%) think there is at least a good chance that a civil war will occur, a majority of men (57%) disagree.