A Look to 2024

Marist National Poll

Dems, GOP Don’t Think Biden, Trump are Strongest 2024 Candidates… Americans Increasingly Support Age Limit on Presidency

Majorities of Democrats and Republicans, including independents who lean toward these parties, do not think President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump are their parties’ best hope at winning the Presidency in 2024. Voters who identify as Democrats divide about Biden’s viability atop the Democratic ticket but independents who lean toward the Democrats, a group that can vote in some state primaries, are much less enamored. A majority of both Republican identifiers and independents who lean Republican think another candidate other than Trump would give the GOP a better chance at winning. Additionally, Americans increasingly say they think an age limit on the Presidency is a good idea.

2024 Presidential Nominees
Do you think [Democrats/Republicans] have a better chance of winning the presidency in 2024 if [Joe Biden/Donald Trump] is the party's nominee, or if someone else is the party's nominee?
Marist Poll Democrats and Democratic leaning independents, n=572 MOE +/- 6.5 percentage points. Marist Poll Republicans and Republican leaning independents, n=517 MOE +/- 6.9 percentage points. Interviews conducted Nov. 14 - Nov. 16, 2022. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
  • 54% of Democrats and Democratic leaning independents do not think their party is bolstered to win the Presidency in 2024 with Biden as their nominee. This is up from 44% in October 2021. 38% say Biden is the strongest candidate. Democrats divide (44% for Biden to 46% for someone else) whereas few Democratic leaning independents think Biden is the Democrats’ best bet (23% for Biden to 71% for someone else).

  • President Biden’s job approval rating is 42% among Americans, unchanged from early November. Biden’s negative score has inched up from 50% to 54%. Americans are more than twice as likely to strongly disapprove (42%) than to strongly approve (18%) of Biden’s job performance.

  • 54% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents do not think Trump is the candidate to take back the White House in 2024. 35% say Trump would be the best Republican nominee. A majority of voters who identify as Republican (52%) and 60% of Republican leaning independents think another candidate would be a more viable option in 2024.

  • 58% of U.S. residents, a marked increase from 35% in 2019, think an age limit for U.S. presidents would be a good idea. 38%, down from 61%, say it is a bad idea. Republicans (62%) and independents (60%) are more likely than Democrats to favor such a limit. Democrats divide (49% good idea to 47% bad idea). Younger Americans (66%) are more likely than those 45 or older (51%) to say there should be an age limit for seeking the Presidency.

  • 69% of Americans think it is a bad idea to lower the constitutional age requirement for presidential candidates to 30 from 35 years old. 28% say it is a good idea.

"Both Biden and Trump were unpopular during the midterm campaigns, and pretty much cancelled each other out," says Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. "Looking ahead to 2024, it will be interesting to see if the parties’ rank and file coalesce around someone else. Without a crowded field, both Biden and Trump would face obstacles to their party’s nomination."

Inflation top Priority for the New Congress

As the nation prepares for a new Congress, 31% of Americans report the top priority should be inflation followed by preserving democracy (14%), immigration (12%), abortion (10%), and health care (10%). Climate change receives 9%, gun policy receives 7%, and crime garners 6%. The top priority for Republicans (47%) and independents (35%) is inflation, and preserving democracy tops the list for Democrats with 20%.

Most Americans Confident in Election Process

With the 2022 Midterms Elections in the past, 78% of Americans are very confident or confident that their state or local government ran a fair and accurate election. 89% of Democrats, 65% of Republicans, and 80% of independents agree. 21% of Americans are not confident in the election system.

Democrats (66%) are more likely than Republicans (25%) and independents (45%) to be very confident in the election system.

Americans Pessimistic About Nation’s Direction

More than two in three Americans (67%) say the nation is moving in the wrong direction. Fewer than three in ten (29%) say it is moving in the right one. This is little changed from Americans’ impressions of the state of the nation in October.