6/30: Paterson’s Gubernatorial Prospects: Inches Closer to Giuliani

Governor David Paterson has an uphill battle ahead of him when it comes to next year’s gubernatorial election in New York State.  Here is how he fares in a couple of hypothetical matchups.  The good news for Paterson is that he has inched closer to former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. However, if the election were held today, Paterson receives 37% of the electorate compared with 54% for Giuliani.  In The Marist Poll’s May survey, Paterson had 32% of the electorate’s support compared with 56% for Giuliani.



When Governor Paterson is pitted against former U.S. Representative Rick Lazio, the two remain in a statistical dead heat.  However, Paterson has gained a little ground.  In this hypothetical pairing, Paterson currently garners 41% of registered voters in New York State while the Republican nets 40%.  19% are unsure.  Two months ago, the same proportion of registered voters in the state said they would support Lazio while 37% reported they would back Paterson.  At that time, 23% were unsure.

Table: Paterson/Giuliani 2010 Matchup
Table: Paterson/Lazio 2010 Matchup

Cuomo Stands Strong Against Paterson in 2010 Democratic Primary for Governor

Looking ahead to next year’s Democratic primary for governor in New York, the state’s Attorney General, Andrew Cuomo, is a force to be reckoned with.  If the primary were held today, Cuomo would easily defeat Governor Paterson with 69% of New York State Democrats saying they would support Cuomo and 24% reporting they would back Paterson.  In May, 70% said they would vote for Cuomo, and 21% stated they would cast their ballot for Paterson.

Table: 2010 Democratic Primary — Paterson/Cuomo

Giuliani Garners GOP Support for 2010

Who is the stronger Republican candidate to square off in the 2010 gubernatorial race?  If next year’s Republican primary were held today, Rudy Giuliani would defeat Rick Lazio by more than four to one.  77% of Republicans would vote for Giuliani compared with 16% for Lazio.  Both potential candidates received similar support in Marist’s May survey.

Table: 2010 Republican Primary

Cuomo Leads Competition in Hypothetical Gubernatorial Contests

If New York State Attorney General were to win the Democratic nomination for governor, Cuomo would be New York’s next governor.  In a hypothetical contest against Rick Lazio, Cuomo defeats Lazio by three to one.  68% of the state’s electorate would vote for Cuomo while Lazio receives 22% of the vote.  Even a plurality of Lazio’s own party — 48% — said they would back his Democratic opponent.  This is little changed from Marist’s last survey.

But, when pitted against Rudy Giuliani, the race against Cuomo is tighter, but Cuomo would still beat Giuliani.  A slim majority — 51% — report that Cuomo would be their candidate of choice compared with 43% who would prefer Giuliani.  In May, Cuomo led Giuliani 55% to 38%.

Table: Cuomo/Lazio
Table: Cuomo/Giuliani

Marist Poll Methodology

Related Stories:

6/30: Paterson’s Approval Rating Still in the Tank…Voters Dissatisfied with Handling of NYS Senate Situation

6/30: NY State Senate Unrest Does Not Sit Well With Voters

6/30: Two-Thirds Approve of Cuomo’s Job Performance

6/30: DiNapoli’s Approval Rating Consistent…Steady at 32%

Complete June 30, 2009 NYS Poll Release and Tables

Complete May 4, 2009 NYS Poll Tables