October 9, 2016
10/9: Pennsylvania: Clinton Leads Trump
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll
In the battle for the White House, Democrat Hillary Clinton is well-positioned to carry Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes. Among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have already voted, Clinton, 49%, leads Republican Donald Trump, 37%, by 12 points. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson has 6% while Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 4%. One percent say they support someone else, and 3% are undecided.
“For Hillary Clinton, it’s all about running up the score in Philadelphia and the Philadelphia suburbs,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “For Donald Trump, he still needs to find a way to break the Democrats’ winning streak in the last six presidential contests in the Keystone State.”
Support for Clinton and Trump falls along party lines, but more Democrats are for Clinton than Republicans are for Trump. 90% of likely voters who are Democrats back Clinton while 83% of likely voters who are Republicans support Trump. Among likely voters who are independents, Clinton, 37%, and Trump, 33%, are competitive. Gary Johnson has the support of a notable 16% of independents.
African Americans who are likely to vote are overwhelmingly for Clinton. Nearly nine in ten African Americans, 89%, support Clinton compared with only 5% for Trump. However, white likely voters in Pennsylvania divide with 44% for Clinton and 42% for Trump. Among white likely voters with a college education, a majority, 56%, support Clinton. Trump, 51%, receives majority support among white likely voters without a college degree.
Clinton, 53%, outdistances Trump, 33%, by 20 points among women likely to cast a ballot in Pennsylvania. Among men who are likely to vote, Clinton, 44%, and Trump, 41%, are competitive.
Clinton, 48%, bests Trump, 32%, among likely voters younger than 45. She also leads Trump, 49% to 41%, among likely voters 45 and older.
Among registered voters in this multi-candidate field, Clinton has the support of 48% to 36% for Trump. Johnson receives 7% while Stein has 4%. Two percent of registered voters are for someone else, and 3% are undecided.
When Clinton and Trump face off in a two-way contest, Clinton, 51%, still has a 12 point lead over Trump, 39%, among likely voters in Pennsylvania including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have already voted. Six percent do not support either candidate, 1% are for someone else, and 3% are undecided.
72% of likely voters with a candidate preference in the two-way contest say they strongly back their choice of candidate for president. 72% of likely voters who are for Clinton say they strongly support her. A similar proportion of likely voters who are for Trump, 71%, are firmly committed to him.
Clinton and Trump have upside down favorable ratings, but Trump’s net negative is more than six times greater than that of Clinton. Among likely voters in Pennsylvania, Clinton has a net negative of 5 points. 46% have a favorable impression of her while 51% have an unfavorable one. Trump’s net negative is 32 points. 32% of likely voters have a positive view of Trump while 64% have an unfavorable opinion of him.
In the race for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania, Democrat Katie McGinty, 48%, and Republican incumbent Pat Toomey, 44% are competitive among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have already voted. Two percent support someone else, and 6% are undecided. 48% of likely voters with a candidate preference say they are firmly committed to their choice of candidate for U.S. Senate. 49% of McGinty’s backers, compared with 47% of Toomey’s supporters, say they strongly support their pick for U.S. Senate.
“Although GOP incumbent Toomey is running 7 points ahead of Trump among likely voters in Pennsylvania, McGinty is pretty much getting a similar share of the vote as Clinton,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “But, only 48% of likely voters are strongly committed to their choice for Senate. This contest is one to watch in the closing weeks of the campaign.”
52% of Pennsylvania adults, including 55% of likely voters statewide, approve of the job President Barack Obama is doing in office. 39% of Pennsylvania residents disapprove, and 9% are unsure.
Complete October 9, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Release of Pennsylvania
Complete October 9, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Pennsylvania (Tables of Likely Voters)
Complete October 9, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Pennsylvania (Tables of Adults and Registered Voters)
Marist Poll Methodology for Pennsylvania