Andrew Cuomo leads the Democratic primary race for New York City Mayor, but the contest has tightened. Cuomo is the first-choice candidate of nearly four in ten likely Democratic primary voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Zohran Mamdani places second with more than a quarter of the vote. The remaining field receives support in single digits. Last month, Cuomo outpaced Mamdani as voters’ first choice by 19 points, down now to 11. When calculating ranked choice voting round-by-round estimates, Cuomo’s support rounds up to 50% in the sixth round. He crosses the 50% threshold in Round 7 with 55%. However, there are still votes on the table that could be critical in determining the eventual winner of the primary. 11% of likely Democratic primary voters are undecided on their first choice, and another 11% do not choose Cuomo or Mamdani as one of their candidate selections at any point.