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NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Results: Coronavirus May 2020

4/29: NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Results & Analysis

Americans perceive the coronavirus pandemic to be a crisis that is being better handled by their state’s governor (64%) than by President Donald Trump (32%). Expectedly, a wide partisan divide exists, but even one in four Republicans (25%) think their governor is more adept at handling the crisis. 86% of Democrats and 70% of independents say their governor has a better approach than TrumpAmong Republicans, 73% say Trump is more effective at dealing with the crisis 

Among most demographic groups, at least a majority of Americans thinks their governor is addressing the coronavirus pandemic better than the president. There is one exception. White men without a college education divide. 50% of these residents believe their governor is more capable at handling the pandemic while 49% say the president is exhibiting better leadership during the crisis. Also of note, non-white residents (71%), women (70%), and white Americans with a college degree (66%) are more likely than white residents (61%), men (58%), and white residents without a college degree (56%) to assert their state’s governor is more effectively handling the pandemic than the president.   

The stakes couldn’t be higher,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “For the nation, it all boils down to timing. Americans are reacting to when COVID-19 appeared on the national agenda, when they think the country should reopen, and what the economy and COVID-19 will be like come November. 

A majority of Americans (55%) disapprove of how President Trump is handling COVID-19This is up from 49% in the Mid-March NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll. 44%, identical to 44% previously, approve of the president’s approach.  

Most Democrats (87%) consider the president to be falling short in his handling of the crisis while most Republicans (89%) think his approach hits the mark. Among independents, 58disapprove, and 40% approve.  

Americans divide about President Trump’s handling of the economy. 50% of Americans approve of his performance on the economyand 48% disapprove. In March, 51% of residents approved of the president’s approach, and 45% disapproved. Independents are more positive about the president’s handling of the economy (+5 pointsthan they are about his leadership during the COVID-19 crisis (-18 points). 

To compound matters for the president, 54% of Americans think their state’s governor is doing a better job handling the economy than the president (39%). A wide partisan divide exists. 78% of Democrats and 59% of independents think their governor has the better approach. In contrast, 84% of Republicans think the president is more capable of dealing with the economy.  

Women are twice as likely to say their governor (62%) is doing a better job handling the economy than Trump (31%). Men, especially white men with a college degree, divide. 47% of men think Trump is performing better on the economy while 45% say their governor is outperforming the president.    

 There has been a sharp increase in the proportion of working Americans who are experiencing employment insecurity as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. 50% of Americans excluding those not employed or retired, up from 18% in March, report they or someone in their household have been let go or have had their hours reduced because of the pandemic. Although Americans from all walks of life have been impacted by the crisis, those more likely to have experienced the economic repercussions are non-white, younger, lower income, or without a college degree.  

Most Americans oppose lifting social distancing restrictions, especially in larger, group settings. 91% of Americans think it is a bad idea to allow people to attend sporting events without further testing. 85% do not think it is wise for schools to reopen, and 80% think it is a bad idea for restaurants to allow customers to dine in. 65of residents consider it a bad idea for people to go back to work without further testingThere is broad consensus across party lines on maintaining restrictions except on the issue of returning to work. 84% of Democrats and 65% of independents want to continue stay at home policies while 51% of Republicans think it would be a good idea to get back to business. 

Turning to this fall’s presidential election, 34% of Americans report the coronavirus will be either a major (14%) or minor factor (20%) in deciding their vote. 64% of Americans report they have already made up their mind about who they plan to support. 68% of Democrats, 74% of Republicans, and 56% of independents say they have already selected a candidate. Democrats (16%) and independents (15%) are more than twice as likely as Republicans (7%) to say the pandemic will be a major factor when casting their ballot.  

55% of Americans say they would prefer Joe Biden to be handling the COVID-19 crisis than President Trump. 40% would rather Trump be managing the situation. Again, opinions fall along partisan linesA majority of independents (55%) would prefer that Biden be handling the crisis. 

Biden (51%) also outperforms Trump (44%) on who Americans would rather have handling the economy. Independents divide. 47% think Biden is the better option while 45% say Trump is preferential to deal with the economy. 

On these two critical issues, handling the economy and dealing with the coronavirus pandemic, men and women view Donald Trump and Joe Biden through very different lenses,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “The gender gap on who can better handle the economy is 40 points, and it is 30 points on who can better deal with the COVID-19 crisis.” 

Complete April 29, 2020 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Release of the United States 

Complete April 29, 2020 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll of the United States (Tables of Adults and Registered Voters) 

Marist Poll Methodology 

Nature of the Sample 

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Results: Coronovirus April 2020

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Results & Analysis

Seven in ten U.S. residents (70%) now report they are very concerned or concerned about the spread of coronavirus in their communities. This is a marked increase from 44of U.S. residents who had this view in the NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll released in early February. 

The proportion of Republicans (58%) with a heightened level of concern is up from 41% previously.  Larger proportions of Democrats (84% from 52%) and independents (68% from 37%) now report a high level of anxiety about the spread of the contagion in their communities.  

Despite this heightened level of concern, fewer Americans perceive the coronavirus to be a real threat, and more say the coronavirus is being blown out of proportion. 56% of Americans, down from 66% previously, say the virus is a real threat. 38% of residents, up from 27%, say the coronavirus is being exaggerated. The change has mostly occurred among Republicans. While 72% of the GOP considered the coronavirus to be a real threat in early February, only 40% now have this view. A majority of Republicans (54%) currently have the view that the situation is being blown out of proportion. This is up from 23% previously. Among independents, 50% think the coronavirus is a real threat, down from 64%. Among Democrats, 76% consider the danger to be real, up from 70%. 

Since the pandemic has taken root and grown in the United States, Democrats and Republicans are now poles apart,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “The consequences of these differing perspectives are shaping how people are responding to calls for action. 

Americans do not trust the information they receive from the president about the pandemic. 60% say they have not very much or no trust at all in the communication they receive from Trump. 37% have a great deal or good amount of trust in the president’s messaging. Most Democrats (91%) and more than six in ten independents (62%) lack confidence in the information the president shares about the crisis. Even 21% of Republicans agree. 74% of Republicans report they have, at least, a good amount of trust in the information the president provides about coronavirus.  

Many Americans perceive a lack of leadership. Nearly half of Americans (49%) disapprove of how President Donald Trump is handling the coronavirus pandemic. 44% approve. Not surprisingly, a wide partisan divide exists.  

Despite Americans’ concern about coronavirus and the president’s approach to the pandemic, Trump’s job approval rating remains steady. 43% approve of how he is doing his job overall, including 32% who strongly do so. 50% disapprove, including 41% who are strongly of this view. In February, 42% approved of the president’s job performance, and 51% disapproved. 

The coronavirus pandemic is a public health issue with the potential for a profound impact on the U.S. economy, and 51% of Americans tell the NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll they approve of how President Trump is handling the economy. This is identical to the proportion (51%) who held this view in February. 45%, up from 40%, disapprove of his economic approach. Four percent, down from 9% in February, are unsure.  

Americans divide over whether or not the federal government is doing enough to prevent the spread of coronavirus. 46% say the federal government is taking appropriate action while 44% think it is not doing enough. Faith in the U.S. government to deal with this situation has plummeted. When the NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll reported a similar question in early February, 61% of Americans thought U.S. government officials were doing enough to contain the virus, and 26% said they were falling short in their response to the contagion. 

The proportion of Democrats who report the federal government has not taken adequate measures has doubled (70% from 35%). Independents, who just last month thought Washington was doing enough (69% to 15%), now divide. 47% say the federal government is doing enough in its response, and 47% think it is notMost Republicans (77%) say the federal government is doing enough, a slight uptick from 72% in the previous poll. 

Americans do have faith, though, in their state governments to handle the coronavirus outbreak. Nearly two in three Americans (65%) say their state government is doing enough to prevent the spread of coronavirus. 23% think state officials should be doing more. Looking at party, 78% of Republicans, 70% of independents, and even a majority of Democrats (53%) say the reaction on the state level is adequate. Of note, more than three in ten Democrats (31%) say state officials need to take additional action 

In contrast to Americans’ doubts about the information coming from the White House, most people (72%) have a great deal or good amount of trust in the information they receive from their state and local governments. Bipartisan consensus exists on this question. The most trusted group, however, for information about coronavirus are public health officials (84%)At least eight in ten Americans, across party lines, report they have a great deal or good amount of trust in the information they receive from these experts. 

Americans divide about the level of trust they have in the information distributed by the news media. 50% trust media sources, and 47% have little or no trust in them. Nearly two in three Democrats (64%) have, at least, a good amount of trust in the media, whereas six in ten Republicans (60%) do not. Independents divide, 49% to 47%, respectively. 

How has coronavirus impacted daily life for Americans?  

48% of Americans say they have cancelled plans to avoid crowds. 59% of Democrats have made it a point to avoid large gatherings while 60% of Republicans and 54% of independents have not.  

46% have decided to eat at home more oftenDifferences divide along party lines. 60% of Democrats say they are eating in more often while 63% of Republicans say they have not changed their eating habits. 60% of independents also have not decided to dine at home more frequently.  

42% of Americans have stockpiled food and supplies. More than six in ten Republicans (61%) and independents (64%) have not collected provisions to hold them over during the crisis. Democrats divide. 51% say they have not purchased extra food and supplies while 49% have. 

30% of Americans have changed their travel plans because of the pandemic. Democrats (38%) are more likely than Republicans (26%) and independents (26%) to say they have made adjustments to their travel itineraries.  

Two percent of Americans say they have tried to be tested for coronavirus and have been unable to receive a test.  

Among working Americans, one in three (33%) have altered their daily work routines due to coronavirus. At least a majority of Democrats (59%), Republicans (77%), and independents (63%) say they have not adjusted their workday because of the coronavirus. Yet, Democrats (41%) are significantly more likely than Republicans (23%) to say they have done so. 

A notable 18% of employed Americans say they have been let go or have had their work hours reduced because of coronavirus.  

Complete March 17, 2020 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Release of the United States 

Complete March 17, 2020 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll of the United States (Tables of Adults and Registered Voters) 

Marist Poll Methodology 

Nature of the Sample 

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Results: Coronavirus

NBC News/Marist Poll Results and Analysis of Arizona

In the Democratic primary contest in Arizona, Joe Biden (53%) surpasses Bernie Sanders (36%) by 17 points among likely Democratic primary voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who have already voted. Only 7% of the likely Democratic electorate are persuadable. That is, they are either undecided or might change their minds before casting a ballot.

Among early voters, Biden (53%) leads Sanders (33%) by 20 points. Among likely voters who have yet to cast a ballot, Biden (53%) leads Sanders (39%) by 14 points.

Biden bests Sanders among likely Democratic primary voters who identify as moderate (+47 points), white voters (+29 points), and those who are age 45 or older (+44 points). Regardless of gender, Biden leads Sanders. Biden’s lead among women (+23 points) is more than twice his lead among men (+10 points).

Sanders has the advantage over Biden among likely Democratic primary voters who identify as progressive (+14 points), who are Latino (+16 points), and those under the age of 45 (+36 points).

74% of likely Democratic primary voters with a candidate preference say they strongly support their choice of candidate. 75% of Biden’s supporters and 72% of Sanders’ backers express a strong commitment to their choice of candidate.

Arizona residents divide about the job performance of President Donald Trump. 47% approve, including 32% who strongly do so. 45% disapprove. This includes 34% who strongly disapprove of how the president is doing his job.

In a hypothetical general election matchup against President Trump, Biden (47%) and Trump (46%) are in a statistical tie among registered voters in Arizona. Five percent are undecided. Biden (61%) has an overwhelming lead against Trump (30%) among Latino voters. He is also ahead of Trump among voters under the age of 45 (+9 points), independents (+8 points), women (+8 points), and white college graduates (+7 points).

Trump (53%) is ahead of Biden (42%) among white voters, including white men without a college degree (+37 points). Among men overall, Trump is +7 points over Biden. Voters age 45 and older divide. 49% of these voters support Trump, and 45% are for Biden.

When matched against Sanders, Trump receives 48% of the vote to 45% for Sanders. Trump (55%) outpaces Sanders (38%) among white voters, including white men without a college degree (+40 points). The president also has an 11-point advantage over Sanders among voters 45 or older and among men overall.

Sanders outdistances Trump among Latino voters (+26 points) and has a double-digit lead against Trump among voters under the age of 45 (+11 points). Sanders (46%) has a slight edge against Trump (41%) among independent voters. 11% of independents are undecided. Among women, Sanders (49%) has a 5-point edge against the president (44%).

While Trump (63%) has a wide lead over Sanders (31%) among white voters without a college degree, white voters with a degree divide. 47% support Sanders, and 46% are for Trump.

“Arizona is likely to attract a great deal of attention as a competitive Sunbelt state for the general election,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “As much as the presidential battle for the state’s 11 electoral votes will attract headlines, the contest for Arizona’s U.S. Senate seat will be pivotal in determining the makeup of the next senate.”

In the U.S. Senate race in Arizona, Democrat Mark Kelly (48%) and Republican Martha McSally (45%) are competitive among registered voters statewide. Among independents, 50% support Kelly, and 39% are for McSally. 10% are undecided.

Looking ahead to November’s congressional elections, 47% of registered voters say they prefer a Congress controlled by Republicans. 42% want one controlled by Democrats, and 11% are unsure. Of note, there is little consensus among independents. 39% want a Congress controlled by Republicans while 37% want one with Democrats in charge. Nearly one in four (24%) are unsure.

 Complete March 16, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll Release of Arizona

 Complete March 16, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll of Arizona (Annotated Questionnaire)

 Complete March 16, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll of Arizona (Tables)

 Marist Poll Methodology

 Nature of the Sample

NBC News/Marist Poll Results and Analysis of Ohio

In the Democratic presidential primary contest in Ohio, Joe Biden (58%) leads Bernie Sanders (35%) by 23 points among likely Democratic primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who have already voted. Only 14% of the likely Democratic electorate are persuadable. That is, they are either undecided or might change their minds before heading to the polls.

“So far this primary season, Biden has laid claim to the industrial Midwest,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “There is every reason to think the Buckeye State will also go his way on Tuesday.”

More than six in ten Democrats likely to vote in the primary (62%) and half (50%) of those who identify as independent support Biden. This compares with 32% of Democrats and 41% of independents who back Sanders.

Biden (79%) outpaces Sanders (16%) by 63 points among those who identify as moderate. Biden also has wide leads among likely Democratic voters age 45 or older (+55 points), white voters (+25 points), and African Americans (+26 points). Regardless of gender, Biden receives majority support (60% among women and 55% among men).

Sanders leads Biden among progressives (+22 points) and has twice the support of Biden among likely Democratic primary voters under the age of 45 (+31 points). Sanders does especially well among Millennials and those in Gen Z. Among these voters, Sanders (69%) has a 47-point lead over Biden (22%).

Of note, 43% of the likely Democratic primary electorate in Ohio identify as progressives while 50% identify as moderate.

68% of likely Democratic primary voters with a candidate preference say they strongly support their choice of candidate. Similar proportions of Biden’s supporters (69%) and Sanders’ backers (66%) express a high level of support for their respective candidate.

Ohio residents divide about President Donald Trump’s job performance. 46% approve of how he is doing his job, including 33% who strongly approve of his performance. 47% disapprove, including 37% who strongly have this opinion.

In hypothetical general election matchups against President Trump, Biden (49%) is +4 points over Trump (45%) among Ohio registered voters while Sanders (48%) is +2 points over Trump (46%).

“With an eye to November, it looks like the contest for Ohio’s 18 electoral votes is very much in play,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.   “Add Ohio to the list of battleground states for the general election.”

In matchups against Trump, both Biden and Sanders receive majority support among independents and women. The Democrats do well among white women with a college education. However, Biden (+21 points) outperforms Sanders (+14 points) among this group when paired against the president. Biden and Sanders garner overwhelming support among African American voters in Ohio.

Trump receives majority support against Biden and Sanders among men. The president leads among white men without a college education. Among white voters in general, Trump (50%) is +6 points over Sanders (44%). Against Biden, 49% of white voters support Trump, and 46% are for Biden.

Both Sanders and Biden have the advantage over Trump among voters under the age of 45. However, Sanders’ margin against the president (+13 points) is more than twice that of Biden’s (+6 points) among younger voters. Among voters age 45 or older, Biden has 49% to 46% for Trump. In contrast, Trump receives 48% to 44% for Sanders among these voters.

Regarding the November 2020 elections, Ohio registered voters divide about whether they want a Congress controlled by Democrats (45%) or Republicans (44%). Among independents, 43% prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, and 36% prefer a Republican-controlled Congress. A notable 21% are unsure.

Complete March 16, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll Release of Ohio

Complete March 16, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll of Ohio (Annotated Questionnaire)

Complete March 16, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll of Ohio (Tables)

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample

NBC News Marist Poll Results and Analysis of Texas

In the Democratic presidential primary contest in Texas, Bernie Sanders (34%) has a commanding lead over Joe Biden (19%) and Michael Bloomberg (15%), among likely Democratic primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who have already voted. Elizabeth Warren (10%) is the only other candidate who receives double-digit support. 23% of likely Democratic primary voters are persuadable. That is, they are either undecided or might change their mind before heading to the polls.

“Texas is the second-largest delegate trove of the 14 states on Super Tuesday with 228 delegates at stake,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Sanders is positioned to carry the state although nearly one in four likely voters is still on the fence.”

Sanders receives majority support (53%) from likely Democratic primary voters who are under the age of 45, including 57% of Millennials and Gen Z. Biden (10%) and Bloomberg (8%) trail far behind Sanders among likely Democratic primary voters under the age of 45.

Sanders (47%) is running up the score over his competitors, Biden (12%), Bloomberg (11%), and Buttigieg (11%) with independents likely to cast a ballot in the Democratic primary. Sanders (46%) also outdistances Biden (14%), Warren (13%), and Bloomberg (11%) among likely Democratic primary voters who identify as progressive. Among Latinos, Sanders (46%) also has a sizeable advantage over Bloomberg (14%) and Biden (13%). Among whites, Sanders (28%) has a healthy, yet smaller, lead over Biden (16%), Warren (15%), and Bloomberg (14%). Regardless of gender, Sanders is ahead. Although, compared to Biden, Sanders does better among men (+28 points) than women (+7 points).

Biden (27%) bests Bloomberg (21%) and Sanders (18%) among members of the likely Democratic primary electorate who are age 45 or older. Biden (30%) is also +6 points over Sanders (24%) among African Americans. Bloomberg receives 20% among this group. Among likely Democratic primary voters who identify as moderate, Biden (26%) is competitive with Sanders (22%).

59% of likely Democratic primary voters with a candidate preference say they strongly support their choice of candidate. More than two in three Sanders’ supporters (68%), compared with 52% of Biden’s supporters and 51% of Bloomberg’s backers, report a strong commitment to their candidate.

46% of the likely Democratic primary electorate think it is more important that the party’s nominee is closest to them on the issues while 44% believe it is more important that the nominee has the best chance of defeating President Donald Trump in November. Among Democrats, 49% prioritize electability over positions on the issues (41%). In contrast, a majority of independents (57%) emphasize a candidate’s positions on the issues rather than their ability to defeat Trump (32%).

Progressives and moderates are mirror images of each other. 49% of progressives say a candidate’s stance on the issues is more important while 42% say electability is crucial. Moderates report the exact opposite.

Sanders (43%) has more than three times the support of either Biden (13%) or Bloomberg (13%) among likely Democratic primary voters who think it is more important that the party’s nominee reflect their positions on the issues. Sanders (25%) and Biden (24%) are competitive among those who favor electability.

President Trump (94%) has an overwhelming lead over Bill Weld (4%) among likely Republican primary voters in Texas including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who have voted already. 84% of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference say they strongly support their choice of candidate.

Texans divide about the president’s job performance. 46% of adults statewide say they approve of how he is doing his job, including 31% who strongly do so. 44% disapprove, including 31% who are strongly of this opinion.

In hypothetical general election matchups against the president, Trump is +4 percentage points over both Sanders and Biden. Against Sanders, 49% of registered voters in the state are for Trump while 45% are for Sanders. The contest is identical against Biden. Trump receives 49% support to 45% for the former vice president. Trump carried Texas by nine points over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

In each of these potential contests, Trump leads Sanders and Biden among white voters, especially those without a college degree, men, including a majority of those who live in small cities or the suburbs, and voters over the age of 45.

Sanders has a commanding lead among independents while Biden edges Trump among these voters. The Democrats also have the advantage over Trump among African Americans, Latinos, women, including a majority of those who live in small cities or suburbs, and voters under the age of 45.

48% of Texas voters prefer a Congress controlled by Republicans as a result of November’s elections. 42% want one controlled by Democrats. Among independents, 43% want the Democrats in command, and 36% want the Republicans at the helm. A notable 21% are unsure.

In a very crowded field, there is no clear frontrunner in the race for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. MJ Hegar is the only candidate who receives double-digit support (16%) among likely Democratic primary voters, and a notable 34% are undecided. Not surprisingly, only 38% of likely Democratic primary voters with a candidate preference say they strongly support their choice of candidate, and 22% say they might vote differently on primary day. With 50% needed to avoid a runoff, it is very likely that the top two vote getters on Tuesday will face each other in May.

In a hypothetical general election contest, against incumbent John Cornyn, Cornyn (49%) is +8 points over Hegar (41%) among Texas registered voters. In 2014, Cornyn carried the state by 28 points.

Complete March 1, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll Release of Texas

 Complete March 1, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll of Texas (Annotated Questionnaire)

 Complete March 1, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll of Texas (Tables)

 Marist Poll Methodology

 Nature of the Sample

NBC News/Marist Poll Results and Analysis of North Carolina

In the North Carolina presidential primary for the Democratic nomination, Bernie Sanders (26%) and Joe Biden (24%) are closely matched among likely Democratic primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who have already voted. Michael Bloomberg receives 15%. Warren (11%) is the only other candidate in the field who receives double-digit support. 22% of likely Democratic primary voters are persuadable, that is, those who are undecided or who may change their minds prior to the primary.

“North Carolina is a tossup between Sanders and Biden for Super Tuesday,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “It is also a state that could very well be in play for its electoral votes in November as both of these Democrats run competitively against President Trump among registered voters at this point.”

Biden (28%) and Sanders (26%) are in a tight battle for likely Democratic primary voters who identify as Democrats while Sanders (29%) leads Bloomberg (17%) and Biden (15%) among independents.

Biden (35%) has a 17-point lead over Bloomberg (18%) among likely Democratic primary voters who self-identify as moderate. Sanders receives 14% support among this group. Among African Americans, Biden (36%) is +12 points over Sanders (24%). Bloomberg has the support of 17% of African Americans likely to vote in the primary. Although narrower, Biden (27%) is also ahead among likely Democratic primary voters who are age 45 or older. Bloomberg receives 18% of the older vote, and Sanders garners 16%.

In contrast, Sanders (43%) outpaces Warren (16%), Biden (15%), and Bloomberg (12%) among those who consider themselves to be progressive. Sanders (43%) also outdistances Biden (18%) and Warren (13%) among likely Democratic primary voters in North Carolina under the age of 45. Half of Millennials and Gen Z likely to cast a ballot in the Democratic primary support Sanders. Among white voters, Sanders is also ahead. He receives 26% to 17% for Biden and 16% for Bloomberg.

53% of likely Democratic primary voters with a candidate preference including those who already voted say they strongly support their choice of candidate. Sanders’ supporters (61%) and Biden’s supporters (58%) are more enthusiastic about their choice of candidate than are backers of Bloomberg (47%).

48% of likely Democratic primary voters in North Carolina say it is more important that their party’s nominee is a candidate who has the best chance to defeat President Donald Trump in November rather than one who aligns with them on the issues (42%). A majority of moderates (53%) report their priority is electability. Progressives divide. 47% think electability is more important, and 45% say a candidate’s positions on the issues are critical.

Biden (31%) leads Bloomberg (18%) and Sanders (17%) among those who value electability. Sanders (37%) has the advantage over Biden (16%), Bloomberg (12%), and Warren (12%) among likely Democratic primary voters who say it is more important that the party’s nominee is closest to them on the issues.

Among likely Republican primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who have already voted, President Trump (93%) obliterates Bill Weld (6%) in Weld’s primary challenge to the president. 86% of likely Republican primary voters with a choice of candidate say they strongly support their candidate in the presidential primary.

North Carolina residents divide about Trump’s job performance as president. 44% of adults statewide approve of how Trump is doing his job, including 30% who strongly do so. 47% of North Carolinians disapprove, including 37% of residents who strongly disapprove. A plurality of independents (48%) also disapprove of how the president is performing in office.

Both Biden and Sanders are competitive against Trump in hypothetical general election matchups. Biden receives 49% to 45% for Trump among North Carolina registered voters. Sanders garners 48% to 46% for the president. Trump carried the state by 4 points in 2016 against Hillary Clinton.

In each of these hypothetical contests, Trump bests Sanders and Biden among men and white voters. Trump receives more than twice the support against each of them among white voters without a college degree. Among men who live in small cities and suburbs, Trump (50%) is ahead of Sanders (44%) by 6 points. Trump (50%) edges Biden (47%) among these voters by 3 points.

Biden and Sanders best Trump among African American voters, women, including about six in ten women who live in small cities and the suburbs, and voters under the age of 45. Registered voters in North Carolina who are age 45 or older divide. Trump (47%) is +2 percentage points against Sanders (45%), and Biden (48%) is +1 over Trump (47%).

Of note, Trump (50%) is +6 points over Sanders (44%) among white voters with a college education. Biden (48%) and Trump (47%) split the support of this group.

46% of North Carolina registered voters say they prefer a Congress controlled by Democrats as a result of November’s elections. 42% favor a Republican-controlled Congress, and 12% are unsure. Among independents, 40% say they want the Democrats in control, 38% prefer the Republicans in the majority, and a notable 21% of independents are unsure.

In the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, Cal Cunningham (51%) has majority support and leads his closest competitor, Erica Smith (18%), by 33 percentage points among likely Democratic primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have already voted. No other candidate has double-digit support. One in four North Carolina Democrats likely to cast a ballot in the Senate primary (25%) are undecided. 50% of likely Democratic primary voters with a candidate preference for U.S. Senate strongly support their choice of candidate.

In a hypothetical general election matchup between Cunningham and Republican incumbent Thom Tillis, Cunningham (48%) is ahead of Tillis (43%) by 5 points among registered voters in North Carolina. Tillis narrowly defeated incumbent Senator Kay Hagan in 2014.

Complete March 1, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll Release of North Carolina

Complete March 1, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll of North Carolina (Annotated Questionnaire)

Complete March 1, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll of North Carolina (Tables)

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample

NBC News/Marist Poll Results and Analysis of South Carolina

In the South Carolina presidential primary for the Democratic nomination, Joe Biden (27%) narrowly bests Bernie Sanders (23%) among likely Democratic primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who have already voted. Tom Steyer receives 15% of the likely Democratic electorate. No other candidate in the field achieves double-digit support. 27% of likely Democratic primary voters remain persuadable, that is those who are undecided or who may change their minds prior to the primary.

“South Carolina closes the chapter on the first phase of the presidential sweepstakes,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Will Biden come off the canvas? Will Sanders continue his charge to Super Tuesday? Will someone else emerge as a top tier candidate? South Carolina voters hold the answers.”

Biden outpaces his competitors by double digits among likely Democratic primary voters who identify as moderate, who are African American, or who are age 45 or older. Among moderates, Biden (38%) is out in front of Sanders (15%) and Steyer (15%) by 23 percentage points. Biden is ahead of Sanders by 15 points among African American voters. Here, Biden has 35% to 20% for Sanders. Steyer garners 19% of likely Democratic voters who are African American. Among voters who are age 45 or older, Biden (34%) enjoys a 16-point lead over Steyer (18%). Among women, Biden (28%) has an 8-point advantage over Sanders (20%).

In contrast, Sanders (34%) has a 14-point lead over Biden (20%) among likely Democratic primary voters who self-identify as progressive. Steyer receives 16% of these voters while Warren has 13%. Sanders (40%) leads Biden (14%) and Warren (14%) by 26 points among likely Democratic primary voters who are under the age of 45. Among likely Democratic primary voters who are white, Sanders (26%) has an 8-point lead over Biden (18%). Buttigieg receives the support of 17% of white voters who are likely to cast a ballot in the Democratic primary. Sanders (26%) and Biden (25%) are statistically tied among men.

Six in ten likely Democratic primary voters with a candidate preference (60%) say they strongly support their choice of candidate. Sanders’ supporters (72%) are the most committed to their candidate selection. 61% of Biden’s backers and 60% of Steyer’s supporters say the same.

South Carolinians likely to vote in the Democratic primary divide. 47% think it is more important to have a nominee that comes closer to their views on the issues, and 44% say it is more important to have a nominee who can defeat President Donald Trump in the general election. Moderates (51%) are more likely to favor electability while 41% see issues as their priority. 49% of progressives are more likely to say a candidate’s position on the issues is the priority, and 43% consider electability to be more important.

Biden (35%) leads Sanders (17%) among likely Democratic primary voters who consider electability to be more important while Sanders (29%) is ahead of Biden (18%) among those who think a candidate’s position on the issues is more important.

President Trump’s job approval rating stands at 51% among South Carolina residents. This includes 39% of residents who strongly approve of how Trump is doing his job. 41% of adults statewide disapprove of the president’s performance in office, including 30% who strongly disapprove.

As a result of November’s elections, a majority of registered voters in South Carolina (53%) say they would prefer a Congress controlled by Republicans. 35% report they would prefer a Congress with the Democrats at the helm.

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham is well-positioned in his re-election bid. 54% of registered voters in South Carolina support Graham while 37% back his likely Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison. Two percent supports another candidate, and 7% are undecided. Six years ago, Graham won the state by 16 points, 55% to 39%.

Complete February 24, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll Release of South Carolina

 Complete February 24, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll of South Carolina (Annotated Questionnaire)

Complete February 24, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll of South Carolina (Tables)

 Marist Poll Methodology

 Nature of the Sample