protestors using bull horns to shout at each other

Splitting Apart: American Polarization, Part 1

This is part one of a two-part series on polarization in America. This post focuses on Americans' views on, and roles in, polarization. Part two addresses the systemic causes of polarization that result from our ... Read Now >

Opinion

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Results: Election 2020, Trump, & the Issues

NBC News/Marist Poll Results and Analysis of North Carolina

 

 

 

 

Complete July 27, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll Release of North Carolina

Complete July 27, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll of North Carolina (Annotated Questionnaire)

Complete July 27, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll of North Carolina (Tables)

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample

NBC News/Marist Poll Results and Analysis of Arizona

Complete July 26, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll Release of Arizona

Complete July 26, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll of Arizona (Annotated Questionnaire)

Complete July 26, 2020 NBC News/Marist Poll of Arizona (Tables)

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample

NBC News/Marist Poll: The Education Weight Debate

NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll Results & Analysis

Governor Andrew Cuomo enjoys his highest job performance score since taking office in 2011. 60% of registered voters in New York, up from 38% in March 2019, rate Cuomo’s job performance as either excellent (29%) or good (31%). Cuomo’s previous high rating occurred in October 2012 when 59% of registered voters thought he did an excellent or good job as governor.

Regardless of region of residence, at least a majority of New York voters think highly of Cuomo’s job performance. He rates highest in New York City (67%) followed by the city’s suburbs (61%) and then Upstate (55%).

“New Yorkers are responding in a very positive way to Governor Cuomo’s leadership during this unprecedented time,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Cuomo has been able to govern in a convincing way both on COVID-19 and the economy.”

When asked, overall, whether they approve or disapprove of how Cuomo is executing his job duties, two in three (66%) New York State residents, including the same proportion of registered voters statewide, say they approve. 29% disapprove.

A partisan divide exists, but even more than one in four Republicans (28%) approve of the job Cuomo is doing as governor. 89% of Democrats and 65% of non-enrolled voters say the same. 70% of Republicans disapprove of the governor’s job performance.

More than seven in ten New York State residents (72%) — including 75% of New York City residents, 70% of residents in the suburbs, and 69% Upstate — approve of how Cuomo is handling the coronavirus pandemic. 24% of New Yorkers disapprove.

Residents statewide also approve of how the governor is handling the economy. 59% of residents statewide have this opinion. 33% disapprove. Residents in New York City (63%) and the city’s suburbs (61%) are more likely to approve of the governor’s handling of the economy than those Upstate (52%).

New Yorkers are less satisfied with how New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio is handling the coronavirus pandemic. Statewide residents divide. 42% approve, and 44% disapprove.  New York City residents are slightly more positive about the mayor’s approach than those living in other areas of the state. 50% of residents in New York City approve while 44% disapprove. This is far weaker than how Governor Cuomo is seen by New York City residents (75%) on this issue.

New Yorkers are cautiously optimistic about the coronavirus pandemic in the state. By more than two-to-one, 47% of residents statewide think the pandemic will get better rather than get worse (23%). Yet, a notable 25% say the pandemic will stay about the same.

Half of New York State residents (50%) think it is a bad idea to fully reopen public schools with in-school instruction this fall. 40% say it is a good idea, and 10% are unsure. While a majority of residents in New York City (53%) say it is a bad idea, those living in the city’s suburbs (46% good idea to 49% bad idea) and Upstate (41% good idea to 47% bad idea) are more divided. Statewide, parents of school-aged children are also divided. 45% believe it is a good idea to reopen public schools, and 46% think it is a bad one.

Nearly three in four New Yorkers (74%) say they always wear a mask or facial covering when they leave their home due to coronavirus. 78% of New York City residents, 72% of those in the suburbs, and 70% of Upstate residents say they wear a mask when outside of their homes. Democrats (82%) are more likely than Republicans (61%) and non-enrolled voters (71%) to say the same.

The protests fighting racial injustice share the headlines with the coronavirus. Do New Yorkers have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of the Black Lives Matter movement? 62% of adults statewide say they have a favorable opinion of the movement. 28% have an unfavorable view. A sharp partisan divide exists. 82% of Democrats and 61% of non-enrolled voters have a favorable impression of the Black Lives Matter movement. 64% of Republicans have an unfavorable opinion. One in five Republicans have a favorable view of Black Lives Matter. Regardless of region, at least a majority of New Yorkers have a favorable view of the Black Lives Matter movement. Though, those in New York City (69%) are more likely than residents in the suburbs of New York City (60%) and Upstate (53%) to have this view.

Half of New York adults (50%) oppose defunding the police in their community to spend more on other local services. 41% support such action. While about six in ten adults in the suburbs (62%) and Upstate (60%) oppose defunding the police, a majority of New York City residents support the proposal (55%).

New Yorkers are optimistic about the direction of the state. In fact, the proportion of registered voters who say the state is moving in the right direction (58%) is at its highest since May 2002. At that time, 65% thought New York was on track. 37% of voters currently say New York is moving in the wrong direction. When previously reported in March 2019, New York voters divided, 47% to 49%.

Complete July 9, 2020 NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll Release of New York State

Complete July 9, 2020 NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll of New York State (Tables of Adults and Registered Voters)

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Results & Analysis

In the presidential contest, Joe Biden (52%) leads President Donald Trump (44%) by 8 percentage points among registered voters nationally including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. With partisan allegiances holding strong, support among independents divides. Biden receives 47% to 44% for Trump. At the beginning of June, Biden (50%) had a 7-point edge over Trump (43%) among registered voters.

Biden leads Trump by 29 points among white women with a college education and by 12 points among college educated white men. Trump leads Biden by 15 points among white women without a college degree and by 41 points among white men who did not get a college education.

“President Trump’s re-election depends upon a shift either in the policies and tone of his administration or in his finding a way to entice Biden into hand-to-hand combat,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “If Trump’s strong disapproval rating stays put, and Biden remains below the radar, Trump’s prospects are dim.”

Biden’s lead comes as Trump’s disapproval rating reaches a new high. 58% of Americans disapprove of how the president is doing his job, up from 55% in early June, and is the highest of his term in office. 40% of Americans approve of how the president is doing his job comparable to the 41% score he received earlier this month.

The proportion of Americans who say they strongly disapprove of Trump’s job performance (49%) is also at its height. In early June, 47% of Americans strongly disapproved of the president’s job performance. At that time, this was his highest disapproval score. 26% of Americans say they strongly approve of the president’s job performance, comparable to 28% previously.

Not surprisingly, Democrats (96%) overwhelmingly disapprove of how the president is performing in office while most Republicans approve (90%). Nearly six in ten independents (59%) give the president a thumbs down on the job he is doing, and 37% approve.

Complete June 26, 2020 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Release of the United States

Complete June 26, 2020 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll of the United States (Tables of Adults and Registered Voters)

 Marist Poll Methodology

 Nature of the Sample

 

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Results: 2020 Presidential Election and Trump’s Approval Rating

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Results & Analysis

More than six in ten Americans (62%) say the demonstrations in the aftermath of George Floyd’s death in Minneapolis at the hands of police are legitimate protests and not people acting unlawfully (28%).   

A distinct partisan divide exists, but a notable 30% of Republicans say the demonstrations are legitimate. Most Democrats (87%) and nearly two in three independents (65%) also have this opinion. Close to six in ten Republicans (59%) believe these public actions are mostly unlawful. 

While African Americans (77%) are more likely than white Americans to consider the demonstrations to be lawful protests, majority of white Americans (58%) also share this opinion. Latinos (70%), residents under the age of 45 (70%), and a majority of older Americans (55%) agree.  

By more than twotoone Americans side with the demonstrators,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “White House efforts to undercut the legitimacy of the protests have come up short. 

It follows, then, that many Americans (61%) are more likely to describe the demonstrations as “protests” as opposed to “riots” (31%). Among Democrats, 85% characterize the demonstrations as “protests.” 65% of independents and a noteworthy 31% of Republicans agree. Nearly six in ten Republicans (59%) describe the demonstrations as “riots.” 79% of African Americans choose to use the term “protests,” not “riots,” to describe the demonstrations. 68% of Latinos and 56% of whites share this opinion. Though younger Americans (70%) are more likely than those age 45 or older to call these public actions “protests, a majority of older Americans (53%) also agree.  

President Trump’s response to the demonstrations draws criticism from more than two-thirds of Americans. 67% of residents nationally say the president has mostly increased tensions18think his reaction has mostly decreased tensions, and 15% are unsure. Although a plurality of Republicans (41%) think the president has eased tensions, 29% say he has made them worse, and a notable 30% are unsure about whether or not the president’s reaction has mitigated or exacerbated tensions. Most Democrats (92%) and more than seven in ten independents (73%) believe Trump has intensified tensions following Floyd’s death.  

While President Trump’s job approval rating (41%) is comparable to the 43% score he received in March, his disapproval score has increased five points to 55% from 50%. The last time Trump received a 55% disapproval rating was February 2019. His all-time high was 56% which he received in December of 2017.  

The intensity of Americans disapproval of how President Trump is doing his job has grown. 47% of Americans who disapprove say they strongly do so. This is up from 41% in March and is the highest “strongly disapprove” rating of the president’s term. 28% report they strongly approve, notched down from 32% 

A noticeable change has occurred among independents. 43% of independents say they strongly disapprove of the president’s job performance, an increase from 33% three months ago. The proportion of independents who say they strongly approve stands at 20%, little changed from 22% in March. Among Democrats, a similar shift has occurred. 88% of Democrats, up from 77%, now say they strongly disapprove of the president’s job performance. 71% of Republicans, down slightly from 76%, say they strongly approve of how the president is doing in office. 

The president’s low job approval rating factors into his standing against Joe Biden. In a head-to-head matchup between Trump and Biden, Biden has a 7-point advantage against the president. 50% of registered voters support Biden, and Trump garners 43%. In February, Biden (50%) had a 6-point lead against Trump (44%). 

“Most Americans have already picked sides,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “As long as the contest remains largely a referendum on the president, he will continue to trail Biden nationally. 

Americans think Biden (52%) would better handle race relations as president than Trump (34%). This includes 92% of Democrats, a plurality of independents (48%), and about one in ten Republicans (11%). With the exception of Republicans, white Americans without a college degree, white Evangelical Christians, and Americans living in rural regions, Americans are more likely to think Biden is more capable of handling race relations than Trump.    

When looking at Americans’ perceptions of their local police officers, confidence has declined since 2014. 35% of residents have a great deal of confidence in law enforcement officials to treat white people and black people equally28% have a fair amount of trust in them to not favor one race over the other while 17% have just some confidence in them to do so. 18% have very little trust in law enforcement to disregard a person’s raceWhen The Marist Poll last reported this question at the end of 2014, 41% of Americans had a great deal of confidence in police officers to treat people equally regardless of race. 30% had a fair amount of trust in them to do so, and 11% had just some. 16% had very little confidence in law enforcement to act equitably without taking a person’s race into account 

While a plurality of white Americans (42%) have a great deal of confidence in police to treat everyone equallynearly half of African Americans (48%) have very little confidence in police officers to do so.  

A majority of Americans do not think police are responding appropriately to the demonstrations occurring in the aftermath of George Floyd’s death. This includes 35% who say the police are being too aggressive, and 18% who say they are not being aggressive enough. 38% think the police are responding appropriately to the demonstrations. 10% are unsure.  

Half of African Americans (50%) think the police are responding too aggressively, though 32% think the police have been reacting appropriately. Among white Americans, a plurality (41%) think the response has been appropriate, 31% say it has been too aggressive, and 20% think the police have not been aggressive enough. 

Complete June 5, 2020 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Release of the United States 

Complete June 5, 2020 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll of the United States (Tables of Adults and Registered Voters) 

Marist Poll Methodology 

Nature of the Sample 

 

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Results: Race Relations in the United States

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Results & Analysis

As states across the nation begin to reopen, more than three in four Americans (77%) express some degree of concern that a second wave of coronavirus cases will emerge. 23%, though, report they have little or no concern another surge of cases will occur.  

Democrats (93%) and women (83%) are more likely than Republicans (57%) and men (70%) to be concerned about a second coronavirus wave. Among independents, 76% are worried that large number of new coronavirus cases will emerge in the future. 

No sooner are Americans digging out from the country’s initial bout with COVID-19 than concern about a resurgence weighs heavily on their mind,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “As steps are being taken to reopen the economy, people are far from confident that the U.S. is out of the woods. 

 As shelter-in-place and stay-at-home orders begin to be lifted and states reopen, nearly two in three Americans say it will take time before their lives will return to a sense of normal65% of residents report their daily routine will not reflect any kind of normal before, at least, six months. Included here are 25% who say they expect their life to get back to a new normal in about six months, 22% who say their expectation is in about a year, and 18% who say it will take longer than that. In contrast, 32of residents report normal life will resume for them in the next month (11%) or within the next two to three months (21%). 

 Again, a deep partisan divide exists. Republicans (42%) are more than twice as likely as Democrats (20%) to report it will take, at most, two to three months for life to return to a sense of normal. In fact, 20% of Republicans say they expect their routine to return to normal in the next month. This compares with only 1% of Democrats who cite this timeframe. 78% of Democrats and 68% of independents say it will take about six months or longer to achieve a sense of what life was like prior to the pandemic. 55% of Republicans agree.  

 When thinking about November’s elections, 50% of Americans say, if their state permits voting by mail-in ballot due to the coronavirus, they will cast their vote that way38% say they will go to the polls in-person, and 10% report they will not vote. Majorities of Democrats (61%) and independents (53%) prefer to mail in their ballot. Although a majority of Republicans (56%) would rather vote in person, a notable 42% say they will vote by mail. 

 Divergent views are most apparent when looking at the opinions of two critical groups in the 2020 presidential campaign,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “White men without a college education, the Republican base, are least likely to vote by mail, and white women with a college education, the Democratic base, are most likely to mail in their vote.” 

 Complete May 20, 2020 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Release of the United States 

 Complete May 20, 2020 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll of the United States (Tables of Adults and Registered Voters) 

 Marist Poll Methodology 

 Nature of the Sample