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10/26: Thompson’s Last Best Chance?

October 26, 2009 | by Marist Poll

By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

Tomorrow night’s debate on WABC-TV between NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Democrat Bill Thompson represents the challenger’s best and probably last opportunity to close the gap in the race for mayor. I’m not sure Thompson’s chances are as dire as a Hail Mary pass but they are certainly no better than trying a 50 yard field goal into a strong wind.

Lee Miringoff

The latest Marist Poll numbers put Bloomberg ahead of Thompson by 16% among likely voters. The gap has widened since last month when Marist had the contest at 9% in Bloomberg’s favor. Although undecided voters typically gravitate to the challenger in these kinds of matchups, that doesn’t appear to be happening this time around.

Why?

Several reasons. First, the Bloomberg campaign has been on the attack. Although Bloomberg’s approval rating is nearly 60%, the mayor is garnering only in the neighborhood of the low fifties in the tossup. The focus of the Bloomberg campaign is to make sure undecided voters don’t find the challenger in the closing days of the campaign. So far so good for the mayor. Not only has his lead widened but Thompson’s negatives have grown from 22% to 33% in a month.

The money factor also plays Bloomberg’s way. No shock here, but this mayoral campaign is different from previous ones. There are fewer journalists providing less free media … something an underfinanced Thompson campaign needs. The premium has been on paid media and that favors Bloomberg and contributes to the problems Thompson has faced in getting any traction.

Third, the Thompson campaign has repeatedly relied on a single sheet in its playbook — namely, Bloomberg’s reversal on term limits. New Yorkers aren’t happy with this change in the rules, but it alone is not a winning issue for Thompson. Campaigns are about telling voters something they don’t already know. Rick Lazio fell victim to a similar failed strategy in 2000 when he harped on Hillary Clinton’s carpetbagger status. Thompson needs to get beyond this issue if he has any hopes of scoring an upset.

That brings us back to the candidates’ final debate. Mayor Bloomberg no doubt will continue his strategy of disengagement. He certainly is not the most gifted debater to stand behind a podium and he has no need to mix it up with Thompson. Instead, Bloomberg is likely to counterpunch when attacked and point to the future every chance he gets. Isn’t that what campaigns are about?

On Thompson’s side of the equation, he was surprisingly feisty during the NY1 debate but now needs to establish his rationale for running. What will he do as mayor? This is not Obama vs. McCain. The currents of change are not strong enough to carry Thompson into office.

There are several other elements that are unique to NYC campaign ’09. Baseball has been in the air and has distracted voters from what has generally been a ho-hum contest. 79% of the city’s electorate, including 62% of Thompson backers, think Mayor Bloomberg is a shoo-in.

Issues concerning New Yorkers right now are more national and international in scope … the economy, the war, health care etc. There hasn’t been a local issue to mobilize voters save the already discussed extension of term limits.

And, there is for campaign 2009 a letdown from this time last year when candidate Obama was moving New Yorkers to follow that campaign in unprecedented ways. Turnout is likely to be low, and that may also play Bloomberg’s way with his GOTV effort ready to launch.

Finally, this is a somewhat charisma-challenged contest. New York City voters historically have rotated mayors between the bigger than life grandstand type to the image of a competent manager mayor. From Broadway Bound John Lindsay to Comptroller Abe Beame to “How Am I Doing” Ed Koch to David Dinkins to Rudy Giuliani to Michael Bloomberg. If history is any guide, the mayor to follow Bloomberg should be a slam dunk candidate.

Thompson has failed to demonstrate that capacity so far and must now do so. We’ll be taking a final pre-election sample of New Yorkers following the debate to see if they are thinking any differently.

10/14: Accolades vs. Accomplishments

October 14, 2009 | by Marist Poll

By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

Searching for successes to counter the criticism that his accomplishments don’t match his accolades…see Nobel Peace Prize…President Obama is basking in the Senate Finance Committee’s vote on health care reform. The president called the action a critical milestone… And, why not? Obama’s plate has been overflowing since Day One with the economy, Iraq, Afghanistan, and, of course, health care.

Lee Miringoff

In the latest Marist Poll of voters nationwide, his approval rating is a decent, but not earth-shattering, 53%. As President Obama approaches the first anniversary of the day change ruled, it should be noted that an off-the-chart approval rating at this point in a presidency is no guarantee of future electoral success (the elder Bush) nor is lukewarm early numbers an indicator of future failure with voters (Clinton). In fact, President Obama’s numbers at present closely match President Reagan at this point in his tenure.

Despite President Obama’s attempts to portray himself as post-partisan, it’s the all-important Independent voters who have been re-examining their views of this new president. In Marist’s survey in August, 37% of Independents thought he could be doing a better job as president. That figure is now 47%. And, the chasm between Democratic and Republican voters nationwide remains wide, if not wider, than it has ever been. Certainly, within the halls of Congress, issues like health care reflect a membership torn along partisan lines. With the mid-term campaigns not too far off in the future, partisan rancor is only likely to intensify.

In the short run, President Obama shouldn’t heed critics who claim he is trying to do too much, too fast. He needs to put points on the scoreboard. In President Obama’s favor, he still enjoys some political cover from President Bush. The Marist Poll, for example, reveals that more than two-thirds of the national electorate, including a slim majority of Republicans, think he inherited the country’s economic woes. In President Obama’s disfavor, a growing number of voters now think the nation’s economic problems are the result of his own policies. Time is of the essence.

Related links:

For presidential approval ratings over time visit the Roper Center Archives

10/9: Baseball’s Bond

October 9, 2009 | by Marist Poll

By John Sparks

These are the best of times and the worst of times.

The best of times is the excitement as we go down to the wire of the 2009 baseball season where more is riding on each pitch and every at bat.

For those of us whose passion is the National Pastime, the worst of times is the annual realization we are also fast approaching that void in our lives between the last out of the World Series and that magical day in February when the pitchers and catchers report.

And for us Yankees fans, let’s also hope that Charles Dickens’s memorable line in “A Tale of Two Cities” isn’t some sort of foreshadowing of a fluke which has been prevalent in the recent post-season history of Major League Baseball—a wild card team emerging as World Champions.

But let’s enjoy the moment, and along with it the excitement of Sabathia, Burnett, Teixeira, and Swisher experiencing for the first time what it means to be a Yankee in October.

It is also the time when we pair up and predict what the next few weeks will hold.

Prior to the beginning of this year’s ALDS, I had concluded that the St. Louis Cardinals were hands down favorites in the NL. Pujols and crew seemed to dominate in comparison to the Phillies, Rockies, and Dodgers. But, since Joe Torre’s crew has dominated the first two matchups, I am now leaning toward a return to the magical time of the 1950’s where the Yankees and Dodgers were always on the menu, the games were always played in the daytime, and a young red-headed boy in Texas would stay glued to the radio.

The world would stop and even the teachers would allow the entire class to listen to the games. I still feel the pain of losing my 25 cents in lunch money on a World Series bet the day Bill Mazeroski hit that high hanging curveball served up by Ralph Terry at Forbes Field in the 7th game of the 1960 classic. It was the first time a World Series had been won with a walk-off home run. I am still adamant that if Tony Kubek had not been the victim of that bad hop at shortstop which hit him in the throat in that same game, not only would Bobby Richardson still be the outstanding player of that Series, but the course of history would have changed.

I was sitting with my best friend, Gary Canada, in Mr. Baldock’s 8th grade science-health class listening to the radio when all of this occurred. (It’s similar to one remembering where they were when they learned President Kennedy was assassinated or where they were on September 11, 2001.)

In 1993, 33 years later, sitting around a campfire in Palestine, Texas, Gary and I and our wives were listening to the radio when it happened for just the second time in the history of the game — Joe Carter hitting the walk-off against Mitch (Wild Thing) Williams. The game was still the cement which had connected two lifelong friends.

It’s a game which connects young and old; an 80-year old grandfather can talk to an 8-year old about baseball. It bridges generation gaps, as well as geographical gaps.

The first time I met Lee Miringoff and Barbara Carvalho was one of those encounters in life you never forget. It was 1998, and here was this Texan who had just taken over as Executive Producer for Political Coverage at WNBC in New York meeting for the first time the folks who would be conducting preference polls and analyzing election results and exit polling.

The two pollsters noticed a book on my shelf — a book on Yankee Stadium. Lee and Barb remarked about the book and told me that its author, Ray Robinson, was Lee’s father-in-law. (Ray is also THE authority on Lou Gehrig.)

I replied that I had always been a Yankees fan.

Well, their eyes rolled as if to say, “Yeah, right. I am so sure that some guy from Texas has always been a Yankees fan.” (Remember the reaction when Hillary Clinton had uttered similar words a couple of years later when she had decided to run for the United States Senate from New York.)

I caught the look from Lee and Barb, and threw down the gauntlet rather defiantly: “Okay, guys. If you two are such huge Yankees fans, then tell me: who wore
number 11 before Hector Lopez when he joined the team in 1959.”

Neither Lee nor Barb could come up with the answer, and without skipping a beat, I told them it was Jerry Lumpe and they could “look it up”. That is what my
great-grandmother’s first cousin on my mother’s side of the family would have said. His name was Charles Dillon Stengel, and he was the manager of the Yankees that terrible day in 1960 at Forbes Field when Mazeroski beat my Bombers.

But, that afternoon in 1998 sitting with Lee and Barbara in my New York office, a friendship was cemented which has become a life-long bond. And, it’s all because of baseball.

So, regardless of who you are for, this is a special time of the year for all of us who share the love of the game.

And, the next for the next few weeks, we will put all our other activities on a back burner as we live and die on each pitch.

10/7: Offensive Language

October 7, 2009 | by Marist Poll

Initially, I was going to write about all the annoying phrases polled about in the recent Marist survey. I was going to discuss why they irritate me (or why they don’t — Caroline Kennedy would have been happy to see I that have no problem with compulsive use of the phrase, “you know”). But, then I realized I use all of those expressions myself. At the end of the day (there’s one right there!), I have no business taking on the role of guardian of the English language, at least when it comes to the way other people speak.

Jared Goldman

Instead, I will turn the critical lens on my own irksome verbal tics. Do you ever have that feeling immediately after using a certain word that you wish you hadn’t and pause in disgust with yourself, much to the confusion of your partner in conversation? Well, these are the words that give me that feeling.

Amazing, brilliant

These terms are brothers in the family of inappropriately strong compliments. I use “amazing” so often that I am beginning to wonder if I really am so easily amazed. If you take me literally, I’ve been amazed by a sunset, the sound of a motorcycle engine, a soft plane landing, and a dog’s ability to catch a Frisbee. As for “brilliant,” I often use it when referring to a film, book or TV show I enjoyed. Did I really need to describe that Stephen Colbert sketch as “brilliant?” Couldn’t I have gone with “clever” or “well-done?” Obviously, the word loses a bit more of its luster every time it’s used. On a related note, another word used way too much is “genius.” It’s part of our culture of extreme flattery. This article from the Atlantic Monthly suggests the overuse of “genius” by pointing out its prevalence in discussions about football coaches. Do Shakespeare, Einstein, and Bill Belichick really belong in the same category?

That’s funny

Is it, really? Then why do I say this only when I’m not laughing? It’s a polite impulse, but it really results in a double-insult: not only do I think the joke is not funny, but I think the joke-cracker is gullible enough to believe that I express mirth not with laughter, but by declaring it outright. Anyone who truly wants to be polite should teach him or herself a convincing fake laugh.

You know what I mean?

When I use this in relation to a complex topic, it’s perfectly acceptable. If I’m explaining, say, how a neuron works (for the record, I don’t actually know how it works), then I am permitted to end a sentence with, “you know what I mean?” But, I should refrain if I’m explaining how to work the TV remote. I once had a supervisor who ended his critiques of my work with arched eyebrows, a cocked head and a conciliatory “you know what I mean?” I think he was trying to draw an affirmative response from me in place of explicit acceptance of his criticism. Every time I was tempted to say, “Yes, of course I know what you mean, and I disagree completely.”

What’re ya gonna do?

I use this expression too much. When I say it, I feel as though I’m trying to channel an overworked detective from a TV police drama — bags under his eyes, discussing a problem that just won’t go away. “It’s a tough situation” works better for me.

Or something like that

When I don’t know the exact answer, I’ll end my response with “or something like that,” just so you can’t hold me to it. It’s often replaced by the equally vague “or something to that effect.” Or, I’ll begin my sentence with “I think” or “I guess.” There should be an expression for expressions like these — perhaps “envagueners” or “imprecisioners.” You know, something in that vein.

I mean

This might be the most useless expression in my arsenal. Rarely do I use “I mean” to clarify some point that has been misunderstood — in that case, it would be acceptable. Instead, I use it as a completely unnecessary introduction to what I’m about to say. If you ask me if I think it’s going to rain, I might say, “I mean, there are clouds in the sky, and the air has that rainy smell… “. But, I have no idea how to define the role “I mean” has in that sentence. I mean, there’s just no reason for it to be there.

You might be wondering if there’s really any reason for me to eliminate these expressions from my conversational repertoire. It’s true that most discussions are informal and most interlocutors, if put under scrutiny, would be guilty of these small verbal crimes. But as any English teacher will tell you, while thought affects speech, the converse is true, too. When I say something is “amazing,” for example, I may be failing to process what I really think about it. The lack of precision and nuance in my spoken words diminishes the quality of my thoughts, which, when expressed, come out equally pedestrian. It can be a negative spiral of empty language.

So, while I would never tell someone to stop using a certain word or phrase, I would encourage them, in general, to put more effort into expressing themselves as best they can. They might start here, a site that provides the meanings and origins of scads of commonly used phrases, such as “take umbrage” and “cock and bull story.” Not only might they add to their stable of sayings, but they’d gain more insight into how the meanings of words and phrases evolve in unlikely, unpredictable ways.

You know what I mean?

Our Genius Problem (from the Atlantic Monthly)

Oxford’s Top Ten List of Irritating Expressions

Meanings and Origins of Phrases, Sayings and Idioms

9/21: Mr. Obama Goes to New York…Squelches Mr. Paterson’s Chances?

September 21, 2009 | by Marist Poll

By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

With an approval rating still scraping bottom at 20% and with only 27% of New York State voters even wanting Governor David Paterson to seek election in 2010, it’s little wonder the White House is getting itchy. Why is Washington so worried about the bluest of the blue states?

Lee Miringoff

It’s not just the governorship that’s at stake. It’s also about what could happen down ballot if Paterson is heading the ticket. Paterson’s pick to replace Hilary Clinton in the U.S. Senate, Kirsten Gillibrand, also has very shaky numbers. In fact, her 26% approval rating statewide is nothing to write home about. She trails former Governor George Pataki by 48% to 44% in an hypothetical pairing, and there’s always the possibility of Rudy Giuliani re-trying his 2000 Senate campaign. More on that shortly. Losing a Democratic U.S. Senate seat from New York would be nothing short of a disaster for the Obama Administration in next fall’s mid-term election.

The only thing not surprising in all this White House political pressure is that team Obama has already cleared the path for Gillibrand so that she can win her party’s nomination sans a primary fight. Is this step two in their efforts to keep New York’s U.S. Senate seats in Democratic hands?

Of course, the immediate impact of the White House pulling the rug out from under Paterson is, I’m sure, not lost on any future occupants of the capital’s second floor in Albany. That’s where the Crown Prince of New York politics Andrew Cuomo no doubt has set his sights. Attorney General Cuomo is waiting in the gubernatorial wings holding the highest approval rating of any state official. He cleans Paterson’s clock in a Democratic primary matchup and the White House has just provided Cuomo with all the political cover he could ever need to challenge fellow Democrat Paterson should Paterson decide to run. Cuomo also bests Rudy Giuliani by 10% points should that be the eventual pairing.

What will Rudy do? There are three schools of thought. He can run for governor, but the odds just increased that heavyweight Andrew Cuomo will be his opponent. He could challenge Gillibrand who seems more vulnerable. Or, he could drop out of school altogether when it comes to campaign politics. After all, his recent foray into the electoral college wasn’t particularly rewarding. Rudy remains the marquee name in New York GOP circles but he hasn’t won anything in a very long time (1997). He needs to make his intentions known soon if he really wants to get back into the political swing of things.

9/21: An Interview: The 2009 Mayor’s Race

| by Marist Poll

By John Sparks

Jay DeDapper is a veteran television political reporter who has covered New York politics for more than a decade. In an interview with the Marist Poll’s John Sparks, DeDapper considers the matchup between New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg and Democratic challenger Bill Thompson, and he discusses the impact of the $36 million the mayor has spent on his re-election campaign.

John Sparks
Jay, back in July, 51% of registered voters in New York City told The Marist Poll it was time to oust Mayor Michael Bloomberg from office and elect someone else. Now in that same poll, Bloomberg led Bill Thompson 48% to 35%. Do you sense that, as we get closer to the general election, that the Mayor’s pulling away and widening his lead?

Jay DeDapper
I think there’s a limit to how much of a lead that he can get, even though he’s not a Republican, a registered Republican anymore. He’s not registered in any party. He’s created his own party to run, and he’s running on the independent line. I think that in a city that this is overwhelmingly Democratic, there is a limit to how many votes anybody can get that’s not on the Democratic line. That being said, he is widely seen, and the Marist Poll has shown this, previous Marist Polls have shown this, he’s widely seen to be politically independent and not really a Democrat or a Republican, and I think that appeals to a lot of people. So, I think his wide lead that he has now, and it is sizeable, I don’t think it’s going to grow much more. I think that there is a limit to how wide a lead that he can get in this race.

John Sparks
Now you mentioned he’s an independent. He’s also independently wealthy. He spent a reported $36 million on getting re-elected. Is it the money that makes this an insurmountable race for Bill Thompson?

Jay DeDapper
Well, money is always important and he spent — Mike Bloomberg spent $70 some odd million for the first time around. He spent $80 some odd million last time. There’s been talk that he’d spend $100 million by the time all the final checks are cut in this election, and that’s a huge disadvantage for Bill Thompson. Bill Thompson is participating in the public finance system in New York City, which is pretty progressive. It’s one of the most advanced in the country, but it doesn’t account for people who spend all of their own money, and there’s kind of no way to account for that under the law right now. So, it’s a huge disadvantage for Bill Thompson. But, to say that it’s only money, I think misses a point, and that is that there have been lots of candidates with a lot of money that have lost races. In fact, until Mike Bloomberg came along, the rule was you could spend — that super rich people could spend all the money they wanted and didn’t have a very good chance of winning election, all other things being equal. All other things are not equal in this case. Bill Thompson has not been an aggressive, an assertive candidate. He has had fewer public events, campaign events, than Mike Bloomberg, and if you’re the guy who is the underdog in the money race, then you’ve got to out-hustle the guy who’s got all the money. Bill Thompson isn’t out-hustling anybody right now.

John Sparks
So, what would it take for Thompson to win in November?

Jay DeDapper
He would have to become a different candidate. New York … I think New Yorkers, and you look back at the mayor’s races and the mayors that have been elected in the past, New York has a long history of electing characters. There’s, of course, Fiorello La Guardia. There was Ed Koch. There was Rudy Giuliani. Lindsay was in his own way a character. And, in between these characters, there have often been kind of quiet technocratic kind of people. Abe Beame was one. You could argue that Dave Dinkins was. He certainly wasn’t much of a character. He was historic, but he wasn’t much of a character. Mike Bloomberg has turned into a character. As much as he was kind of a colorless billionaire when he first ran, he’s turned into a bit of a character, a little bit a hottie [sic]. The Marist Poll has shown over the years that people don’t really like his attitude. They don’t think he relates to them or that he understands their concerns, but at the end of the day, he’s got a character, and they think he does a pretty good job. Bill Thompson is not a character. He is as colorless as you can get, and he hasn’t demonstrated any knack for becoming a character in people’s minds. In the very short period between now and election day, Bill Thompson would have to become a different person. That maybe is something he can do. Candidates have done that in the past, but he’d have to become a different person.

John Sparks
I was going to follow-up and ask–does he really have enough time to accomplish that?

Jay DeDapper
I think maybe the way I’d like to answer that is: Could a candidate in this amount of time accomplish what has to be accomplished? And, I think in the hypothetical, yes. Bill Thompson is going to have to go from zero to 60 tomorrow to be able to pull this off.

John Sparks
I’m curious about something else. Is Governor Paterson hurting Bill Thompson’s chances to be elected?

Jay DeDapper
I don’t think there’s any evidence of that. Paterson has plenty of his own problems, and that’s a whole other story. He’s gotten tremendously high negatives and a real, real problem with trying to get re-elected next year. But, I don’t think there’s any link in voters’ minds between Bill Thompson and David Paterson. They haven’t appeared together. They aren’t particularly close. Certainly, David Paterson’s not going to come and campaign for Bill Thompson, because Bill Thompson probably doesn’t want David Paterson to come and campaign for him. So, I don’t think that’s his problem. I mean Bill Thompson is not tainted by the leading Democrat in the state having low poll numbers. Bill Thompson is tainted by the fact that he simply is not running a campaign so far that has energy, ideas, attitude, assertiveness, aggressiveness, fire in the belly. There’s no fire in the belly.

John Sparks
Hindsight’s 20/20. Did Anthony Weiner make a mistake by dropping out?

Jay DeDapper
That’s a hard question. I mean, I think most people, most political analysts, myself included, believe that Anthony Weiner had a much better shot at winning — at beating Mike Bloomberg than Bill Thompson did. But, could he have beaten him? I don’t know, and Anthony Weiner in a purely political calculation, I think, looked at the map and said, “Look, I can run again in four years, and I will have been out there in two different cycles. I will have a lot of name recognition. I will be able to continue to raise issues and get free media and talk, and Mike Bloomberg won’t be running again in four years, and I won’t have to face his $80 million or whatever it’s going to be.” I think that Weiner, I’m sure, thinks in his own mind that he made the right choice because he’s a young guy, and he’s looking at the long run. He wasn’t looking at the short-term advantage. It would’ve been a tough race. It would’ve been … I think it would be a much competitive race if it was Anthony Weiner versus Mike Bloomberg than it is shaping up to be with Bill Thompson versus Mike Bloomberg.

John Sparks
You addressed what Bill Thompson would have to do in order to prevail in November, but I want to ask you: What must Mike Bloomberg do to hold onto his lead and to win in November?

Jay DeDapper
Bloomberg has real vulnerabilities, and The Marist Poll, this one and previous ones have pointed it out, and I’ve alluded to at least one of them, people, New Yorkers, the average New Yorker doesn’t think that he understands them nor is particularly concerned about what affects them. He is seen as a fairly aloof kind of sarcastic, not necessarily very nice rich guy, but he’s also seen as someone who is effective. And, in this case and in this economy, effectiveness seems to trump likability, at least so far, at least according to the polls. He has to work on the likability thing though because the danger is that he is seen as even more arrogant than he’s already seen if he simply goes forward assuming that he is going to win because he’s the right guy for the right time, and he’s got the track record to do it. So, I think you are going to see that. I think you are going to see the campaign working on trying to make Mike Bloomberg a little less of the out-of-touch billionaire and a little more of the I may not feel your pain, but at least I understand it billionaire.

John Sparks
Jay, do you think there’s any lingering resentment toward Bloomberg over the third term?

Jay DeDapper
I think that if you polled people, and you asked them that question specifically, and the further away we get it from it, it probably diminishes, but there has always been a lot of lingering resentment, at least in the polls that I’ve seen since this — since the term limits went through. But even at the time that the term limit debate was at its hottest, and the vast majority of New Yorkers said, “We don’t think the term limits should be overturned,” when those same voters were asked: “Well do you think Mike Bloomberg deserves a third term?” almost the same majority who were opposed to overturning term limits said: “Well, yeah, we think Mike Bloomberg should get a chance at a third term.” So, there’s a contradiction in voters’ minds, and I don’t think this has hurt him. I don’t think that whatever lingering resentment there is, I don’t think it’s enough to drive his supporters into the arms of Bill Thompson right now, and Bill hasn’t done a particularly effective job of stoking that resentment. It’s not an issue we’ve heard very much about in the last three months, and if you can’t make that an issue during the slow summer months, the dog days of August, you’re not going to make it an issue in October I don’t think.

John Sparks
I would think in the short time between the primary and the general that he’s going to really have to mount up an attack on the mayor. Having said that, do you think that there’s any chance in that short period of time that the mayor will stumble?

Jay DeDapper
There is. The mayor has shown over his eight years in office a tin ear to the perceptions of him. One of the most egregious cases was when a reporter in a wheelchair in the front row of a news conference inadvertently, or it was thought, had inadvertently played back a little piece of his tape recorder and it sounded like — it was a noise that interrupted the on-going press conference. And, the mayor castigated him in terms that were just nasty. It turned out it wasn’t even this guy’s tape recorder, and it took the mayor awhile to apologize. That kind of thing, and it got some attention in the press, that kind of thing in the heat and the glare of an election battle in the really hot campaigning over the last three or four weeks of campaigning, a talented opponent could take that and really hurt the mayor with it, with that kind of thing. The mayor is capable of that kind of gaffe. He’s demonstrated it repeatedly, and he is certain enough of his own success that his closest advisors are not going to keep him — be able to keep him from making a gaffe like that if it’s going to happen. The question would be: If a gaffe like that happens, would Bill Thompson be able to take advantage of it? That’s the bigger question to me than will the mayor make a gaffe.

John Sparks
Do you think that the Democrats could’ve fielded a more formidable opponent?

Jay DeDapper
Yes. Anthony Weiner, the polls showed repeatedly, would’ve been a more formidable opponent, and clearly, here’s a guy who knows how to get free media. He learned at the feet of Chuck Schumer, the king of free media. He knows how to get attention. He knows how to throw a punch. He knows how to appeal to the resentment about the term limits. He knows how to appeal to the anger there is, especially among ethnic blue-collar workers about the state of the economy and playing outer borough against Manhattan. He knows how do that, and that’s how you’re going to win. That’s how you’re going to beat Mike Bloomberg. Not that it would be an easy thing to do, but he would’ve been a formidable candidate. He was the only name that was out there mentioned that was serious. People talked about Bill Clinton running or something like that. I mean, yeah, Bill Clinton probably would’ve been a formidable candidate, but in terms of the realistic possible candidates, they could’ve fielded someone better, and his name is Anthony Weiner.

John Sparks
Jay, it’s always interesting to talk about your observations. You’ve covered New York politics for well beyond a decade. Anything else that you’d like to comment on the mayor’s race?

Jay DeDapper
I think what’s probably most interesting is this notion, and I’ve alluded to it, but this notion of effectiveness versus likability, and Rudy Giuliani, to some degree, succeeded in the same way. I remember in 1997, we went out to an African American middle class neighborhood in Queens, St. Albans, after Rudy Giuliani was re-elected overwhelmingly. Rudy Giuliani had had a terrible relationship with the African American community from … really from 1989 on … but from 1993 his election on … terrible relationship. He … I don’t recall if he came very close to winning, or he did win in St. Albans. And, when we talked to people on the street: why? They all said they didn’t like him, but crime was down. The streets were safer. Things were better. And, I think, at the end of the day, that voters, as much as we talk about how much voters vote just about who they like, who would they most like in their living room, when you’re talking about incumbency, effectiveness trumps likability, and I think there’s case-after-case of that, at least in New York City, where that is true. And, Mike Bloomberg is not very well liked, but he is well respected, and that, in this year with this economy, with the troubles facing the city, is an advantage that will be very difficult for Bill Thompson to overcome.

9/21: Bloomberg Approval Rating Steady

Three Decades of Teaching and Polling

September 11, 2009 | by Marist Poll

We’ve been at it since 1978. Take a look at how far we’ve come!

9/9: School Days: A Parental Breakout?

September 9, 2009 | by Mary Griffith

Mary Azzoli

For many schools, including the New York City public schools, today marks the first day of classes. As I drove into work this morning, I heard a newscaster refer to today as, “Parents Liberation Day.” This sentiment is echoed on ads pimping school supplies across TV airwaves. Granted, summer can be a challenge for parents. Finding activities to keep their little ones (and big ones) busy can be difficult. Full disclosure — I am not a parent. However, is this the kind of message that we want to send to our kids? That parents want, and perhaps, need to be “liberated” from their children? Since when did parenting become a part-time job? It also begs that long suffering issue of schools as babysitters. Perhaps, it’s time for a reality check.

9/3: Vacation from Hell

September 3, 2009 | by Mary Griffith

Disaster? Disaster doesn’t even come close.

Dateline: Summer 1999. Destination: Hilton Head, South Carolina. Twelve family members embark on a mini-family reunion. How could a long weekend of fun in the sun go so awry? A cacophony of events so unforeseen it rivals a Hollywood screenplay.

Lowlight Number 1: Scorching heat & oppressive humidity.

The upside: The backdrop for our trip was beautiful sunny skies. The downside: Those sunny skies were coupled with mercury-rising heat and choking humidity. As soon as we arrived, we were greeted with sweltering temperatures. When the hotel’s bathtub sized pool with bath warm water was taken into consideration, there was little relief. In fact, my uncle tried to get in a round of golf at 7 A.M. and returned dripping in sweat.

Lowlight Number 2: Not being evacuated from a restaurant with a gas leak.

Waiting to eat in a restaurant that will eventually be evacuated — without us.

Yes, you read that correctly. My mom’s cousin, Loretta, is a seafood lover and was looking forward to a good, lobster dinner. So, on either the second or third night of the vacation, we received a restaurant recommendation, and off we went. The night started off great! The décor was wonderful, and we were in a semi-private room upstairs. We ordered a ton of appetizers and drinks, but when it came time for the entrees to arrive, we waited close to an hour and a half for them to reach our table. My family’s patience wore thin, and we couldn’t even find a member of the wait staff to ask what was going on. Then, Loretta decided to go outside and have a cigarette. As she stepped into the humid air, she noticed a number of fire engines. Not thinking anything was wrong with the restaurant we were in, she went to light up. Then, a firefighter came rushing towards her! The restaurant had a gas leak, he informed her, and had been evacuated! That is, everyone inside the restaurant except for the twelve members of my family seated in a now-private, upstairs room. When Loretta returned, our meals had arrived – ice cold. We hypothesized that the restaurant chose not to sacrifice the hefty tab my family ran at the risk of our lives. Infuriated, Loretta’s husband went to the manager who still insisted that we pay our bill. A minor argument ensued, and the only compensation we received was having the drinks knocked off of our check.

Lowlight Number 3: Physical injury while on a wave runner.

After our culinary fiasco, we didn’t think the trip could get much worse. Were we ever wrong! The more adventurous members of the family (the men) hit the ocean by renting a few wave runners. Unfortunately, for one, the term “hit the ocean” was all too literal. You see, my godfather’s nephew (who was visiting from Lebanon) was thrust into the air while doing quick turns on the wave runner. On his way back down, he fell on top of the watercraft injuring his lower back. The problem: Poor William didn’t have medical coverage in the states. He suffered great pain, in silence, for the remaining couple of days of our trip. It was only upon our return to New York did he discover the true extent of his injury – a broken tailbone — after a family friend who is a nurse examined him.

Lowlight Number 4: Shower collapse, leaky air conditioner, and, yes, a roach.

I’m not a snob when it comes to hotel accommodations. I can rough it with the best of them. However, three strikes, and you’re out. When I first got to our room (a well-known chain which shall remain nameless), the air conditioner was leaking and left a puddle all over the floor. No big deal, it happens. We went to the front desk and got a new room. However, the conditions in the inn quickly deteriorated. Forget that the room number placard of our old room was adhered outside our new room. (A quirk, we thought.) But, about midway through the vacation, my mom and I swung by our cousins’ room. When we got there, we were informed that their shower fixtures had caved in. And, to top it all off, on the last night of our stay, we found a palmetto bug (a.k.a. roach) in one of the rooms.

The dark spot on the ceiling is an uninvited guest — a roach.

That was the last straw! My mom and her cousins stormed off to the front desk to complain. In the midst of the hubbub, my mother turned to a security guard who was less than alert at the front door and asked what his purpose was. His response was short and ridiculous, “Stealin’.” That was the end. Loretta flew back to her room and began calling other hotels to see if we could find rooms – even if for the night. No luck. We were stuck for the evening and happily escaped the next morning.

Parasailing was one of the highlights of the trip.

With all of the vacation’s insanity, there were some good moments like parasailing and knocking a volleyball around on the beach. To this day, none of us who were there can believe the events of that trip. Yet, we just laugh it all off!

9/2: Is This the Year?

September 2, 2009 | by Marist Poll

By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

If this fall’s re-election campaigns of NYC Mayor Bloomberg and NJ Governor Corzine don’t provide sufficient distraction for the staff at The Marist Poll, you can count on the intense rivalry of baseball’s “Three Hundred Club” to test the statistical savvy of Poughkeepsie’s pollsters. Dating back to 1949, two Boston brothers each picked 10 major league batters to see whose total average would be higher. The “Three Hundred Club” was born.

Lee Miringoff

Since then, a collection of baseball buffs have joined the fray, including many of the poll prognosticators at Marist. Unfortunately, as the ol’ professor Casey Stengel used to say, “It is very difficult making predictions, especially about the future.” For the most part, The Marist Poll’s record for picking political winners has exceeded its ability to field a winning lineup of baseball’s best batters.

The breakout year was 2004 when Marist Poll Director Barbara L. Carvalho and I ran one-two for most of the summer (Barbara had won the mid-season prize the previous year.) I faded in the stretch. Barbara was nipped in the final weekend of the 2004 season by mere tenths of a percentage point… well within the error margin she often pointed out, but not enough to win the Tiffany Bowl.

Fast forward to 2009 where current standings place Barbara in second among the club’s 85 contestants. I’m laboring in 11th position. Marist’s Director of Interactive Media Systems Mary Azzoli, Web Senior Editor John Sparks (a distant relative of Casey Stengel), and Program Manager Stephanie Calvano trail. Stephanie is in third place for pitchers. We’re all also keeping an eye on the homers and RBI competition.

All of these baseball numbers are findable on the Three Hundred Club’s website.